Hurricane Debby

[wthrmn654]

The longer you loop the satellite images the better you can see how's it's turning etc. It's got the counter spin starting/ going.  But where exactly that center is I deft thing is east of where they say it was. 

[wthrmn654]

I think I got out,  80W 20N near that area I think it's spinning around ...

 

Someone else please verify

[beanskip]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Ok. Yes, you’re correct. 1007 mb into Big Bend. Strongest yet into Big Bend.

AIFS even stronger -- sneaks down to 999 before landfall. 

[cptcatz]

13 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

I think I got out,  80W 20N near that area I think it's spinning around ...

 

Someone else please verify

Weren't you supposed to take a breather today? 

[Seminole]

Per the NHC 5:00 PM Advisory the COC is still over Central Cuba. 

[wthrmn654]

5 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Weren't you supposed to take a breather today? 

I did, works over and it was 90 something today feeling like dragon breath I couldn't do anything outside lol

[Normandy]

Think they might need to pull the trigger soon.  Lots of low level turning now and A good deal south of Cuba too. 

[wthrmn654]

Looks like 1 maybe 2 recon Missions are about to happen,  plane just took off ahead of it.

[wthrmn654]

 

[taylorsweather]

49 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

I’m wondering the same thing, but equally, does it feel the weakness to the north as soon if it’s much further south? It seems like if it can consolidate there, we’d be more likely to see more wnw movement and less interaction with Cuba - likely only the low elevation western tip. 

That was the Euro solution at 12z yesterday

[wthrmn654]

Bunch go left on the whacky loop dee loop roller coaster ride, but a chuck go north east but at various different locations....

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

37 minutes ago, Normandy said:

Think they might need to pull the trigger soon.  Lots of low level turning now and A good deal south of Cuba too. 

I see the turning down between Cuba and Jamaica near the Caymans.  Bit I can also convince myself there is loose turning centered on the S coast of Cuba or just inland.  If PTC 4 looks like this tomorrow, I don't think they'll upfrade without either a defined recon center of satellite being very obvious.  Watches and warnings already up with PTC advisories.

[wthrmn654]

[Windspeed]

You linked an old animation, sir.

[MJO812]

Gfs

[cptcatz]

So who had the biggest blowup of convection being south of Grand Cayman on their bingo card today?

[StantonParkHoya]

Nothing like a cat 2 off Manhattan

[TradeWinds]

Is the blob everyone is focused on the one just NW of Jamaica? That seems like a typical MCS that pop up with unorganized systems. The recent blowup of convection on the southern tip of Cuba has my attention. 

[BooneWX]

1 minute ago, TradeWinds said:

Is the blob everyone is focused on the one just NW of Jamaica? That seems like a typical MCS that pop up with unorganized systems. The recent blowup of convection on the southern tip of Cuba has my attention. 

Earlier, yes, but the area south of Cuba certainly looks more impressive now. 

[beanskip]

Hurricane  models starting to get frisky on strengthening. 18z runs of HAFS and HMON have Debby sub-990 mb when making landfall on Big Bend. Unfortunately, it's also showing a very Idalia-like track. Those folks just can't take another hit, even from a strong TS/Cat 1 hurricane. 18z GFS also was stronger than prior runs with a 997 mb Florida landfall. Something to monitor as models get a better fix on the center. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 hours ago, wthrmn654 said:

 

A little bit of a model bust.. looks way south of Cuba, models had it scraping the northern edge. 

[dan11295]

LLC still hasn't formed it, not quite sold on it forming that far south.

[wthrmn654]

[wthrmn654]

[wthrmn654]

now this looks like what we kind of been seeing on satellite.. but does that show 2 points o rotation?

[wthrmn654]

 

[wthrmn654]

maybe someone with knowledge can answer this, but was it that huge spin to the east in the ocean?? dry air? 

 

[Windspeed]

maybe someone with knowledge can answer this, but was it that huge spin to the east in the ocean?? dry air? 

 

That's a mid-to-upper level low. No relationship directly on steering flow. Perhaps some displacement to hell exhaust upper outflow. But very minimal.

[Kevin Reilly]

26 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Two centers not colocated together 

[wthrmn654]

2 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

That's a mid-to-upper level low. No relationship directly on steering flow. Perhaps some some displacement to hell exhaust upper outflow. But very minimal.

non the less very cool looking