NorthHillsWx Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 This thing has major 2005 Hurricane Ophelia vibes off the east coast 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 The outer Banks is due for a scraper. Seems like the would get 2-3 hurricanes/near misses every year but not so much the past few years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 2 hours ago, olafminesaw said: The outer Banks is due for a scraper. Seems like the would get 2-3 hurricanes/near misses every year but not so much the past few years. It’s now ptc 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 A lot of the vorticity seems south of Cuba this morning. Not sure it affects track too much but it may have more time over water if it consolidates south of Cuba while moving WNW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
taylorsweather Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 6 minutes ago, Normandy said: A lot of the vorticity seems south of Cuba this morning. Not sure it affects track too much but it may have more time over water if it consolidates south of Cuba while moving WNW South of Cuba was the 12z track yesterday from the Euro. Went further into the gulf but still ended up hitting the Big Bend area and stalling off SAV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024 ...DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER EASTERN CUBA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.9N 76.6W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ESE OF CAMAGUEY CUBA ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the southwest coast of the Florida peninsula from East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach. A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the Florida Keys south of the Card Sound Bridge including the Dry Tortugas, the southern coast of the Florida peninsula east of East Cape Sable to the Card Sound bridge, and for the west coast of the Florida peninsula north of Bonita Beach to Aripeka. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Southwest coast of the Florida peninsula from East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Florida Keys south of the Card Sound Bridge including the Dry Tortugas * The southern coast of the Florida peninsula east of East Cape Sable to the Card Sound Bridge * The west coast of the Florida peninsula north of Bonita Beach to Aripeka A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. Additional warnings and watches may be required for a portion of this area tonight and Saturday. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 76.6 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the northwest at a slower forward speed is expected tonight or Saturday, followed by a turn toward the north on Sunday. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move over Cuba today, cross the Straits of Florida on Saturday, and then move near or over the west coast of Florida Saturday night through Sunday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical depression on Saturday as it moves across the Straits of Florida, followed by intensification into a tropical storm by Saturday night. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WINDS: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area late Saturday and Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Florida Keys and the southern Florida peninsula by Saturday or Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the Florida west coast Saturday night or Sunday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Aripeka, FL to Card Sound Bridge, FL...1-3 ft Tampa Bay...1-3 ft Charlotte Harbor...1-3 ft RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Four is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum rainfall totals up to 12 inches, across portions of Florida and near the Southeast U.S. coast this weekend through Wednesday morning. This rainfall could result in areas of flash and urban flooding, with isolated river flooding possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Four, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven NNNN 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the tropical wave that NHC has been monitoring for the last several days is now over southeastern Cuba, with disorganized convective bands to the north and south of a broad vorticity center. The maximum winds are currently near 25 kt, and the minimum pressure based on surface observations is near 1012 mb. Given the potential for development once the system moves over water on Saturday, advisories are initiated at this time on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four. The initial motion is 290/14 kt. A turn toward the northwest and north is expected during the next couple of days as the system moves into a break in the subtropical ridge caused by a mid-latitude trough over the Ohio Valley. This should be followed by recurvature into the westerlies after about 60 h. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move into the Straits of Florida and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, followed by a motion near the west coast of Florida Saturday night and Sunday. After that time, the system should cross the northern Florida peninsula and move over the Atlantic near or offshore of the southeastern coast of the United States. The track guidance is in good agreement with this scenario. However, since the forecast track is almost parallel to the west coast of the Florida Peninsula and the southeast coast of the U. S., only a small change in the track could lead to large changes in which land areas receive any landfalls and the biggest impacts. Slow development is possible while the system is over Cuba, and the system is likely to become a tropical depression soon after it moves offshore. The environment over the Gulf of Mexico is quite favorable for strengthening with light shear and very warm sea-surface temperatures, so subsequent steady strengthening is expected. The two biggest uncertainties in the intensity forecast are how long the system will remain offshore of Florida and how long it will take to consolidate. The system is likely to weaken as it crosses Florida, with re-intensification likely over the Atlantic. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall may result in flash and urban flooding across portions of Florida and the Southeast this weekend through Wednesday morning. Isolated river flooding will also be possible. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected Saturday night within the warning area in southwest Florida from East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach where a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Florida Keys on Saturday and along the Florida west coast north of Bonita Beach to Aripeka Saturday night and Sunday where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. 3. Coastal flooding is possible along portions of the west coast of Florida over the weekend. 4. Interests elsewhere in Florida and along the southeast coast of the United States from Georgia to North Carolina should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 20.9N 76.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 03/0000Z 21.7N 78.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 03/1200Z 23.3N 80.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 04/0000Z 25.1N 82.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 27.2N 83.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 05/0000Z 29.2N 82.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 72H 05/1200Z 30.7N 81.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 96H 06/1200Z 32.0N 80.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 07/1200Z 33.6N 77.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 Finally had a mintue to look at some of the stuff, I will say looking at trends the gfs and euro both have trended closer to the north east past few runs.. still long way aways with lots possibly to change but a compromise between the slightly inland euro and the near the bench mark gfs ops runs seems plausible. Edit: in regards to us northerners Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 The track record of the NHC having the Tampa Bay Area in the center of an early season cone is like clockwork and is batting like 0.000001% in the last 100 years, not saying this won’t be the one but if I were a betting man I’d be looking to the north or south ends of the cone. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 ICON is a weenie run for a serious storm just pounding the SE NC coast for days 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: ICON is a weenie run for a serious storm just pounding the SE NC coast for days It's the red headed step child of a model sometimes. It tries it hardest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: ICON is a weenie run for a serious storm just pounding the SE NC coast for days Hoping that's incorrect. It seems overzealous with that much deepening that close to land but it would be a long 2 days for me if it verified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 1 minute ago, wthrmn654 said: It's the red headed step child of a model sometimes. It tries it hardest It was first with the Texas landfall for Beryl 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 Well 12z gfs kinda got rid of all meandering.. goes across Florida, moves slowly on Atlantic side, looks like it touches no one really, other then Florida, but now has its sites on a long Island hit now. EDIT: VERY CLOSE BY NO DIRECT HIT STARTS GOING NORTH EAST NEXT FRAME OR 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 SE NC and OBX really seem to be the places with the highest threat of hurricane conditions from this system. Guidance has really honed in on that area over the last 18 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 It's coming down to timing... if it is meandering and moving really slow, allows the front to grab it before coming to the north east areas... if it moves a little faster and beats the front, looks like it has a better chance of staying closer to coast from Virginia north. EDIT: I meant north Carolina not Virginia..I need to refresh my memory on states again apparently.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 Hard to believe this disturbance is still chugging along as it’s been raked over the entire greater Antilles. Honestly wouldn’t be surprised if nothing developed at all. That being said, conditions are good enough that one has to pay attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 12Z UKMET: first landfall Apalachicola; then would be potential disaster rainfall potential-wise, especially for SC/NC coasts due to a crawl up the coast CHS N and then back inland into coastal NC: this is to the left of the 0Z run, which was offshoreNEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURSFORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 24.8N 84.2WLEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------1200UTC 04.08.2024 48 25.5N 84.6W 1006 350000UTC 05.08.2024 60 27.4N 85.0W 1005 411200UTC 05.08.2024 72 29.2N 84.8W 1005 420000UTC 06.08.2024 84 30.3N 83.6W 1005 301200UTC 06.08.2024 96 31.7N 82.0W 1003 430000UTC 07.08.2024 108 32.4N 80.9W 999 371200UTC 07.08.2024 120 32.6N 80.0W 995 350000UTC 08.08.2024 132 33.1N 79.0W 993 411200UTC 08.08.2024 144 33.9N 78.4W 993 440000UTC 09.08.2024 156 34.1N 78.3W 994 451200UTC 09.08.2024 168 35.1N 78.3W 996 38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 1 hour ago, dbullsfan said: The track record of the NHC having the Tampa Bay Area in the center of an early season cone is like clockwork and is batting like 0.000001% in the last 100 years, not saying this won’t be the one but if I were a betting man I’d be looking to the north or south ends of the cone. . Could be a sneaky surprise for those of us near the bays in Hillsborough and Pinellas. A strengthening TS on that trajectory can bring a lot of flooding and impact to the usual areas. My guess is the center curves inland under the bay and we miss the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 8 minutes ago, TPAwx said: Could be a sneaky surprise for those of us near the bays in Hillsborough and Pinellas. A strengthening TS on that trajectory can bring a lot of flooding and impact to the usual areas. My guess is the center curves inland under the bay and we miss the worst. 100% agree. While this may not pack the wind punch of a cane on a direct path to Tampa, depending on the arrival time and tides, it has the potential for catastrophic flooding across much of the Bay Area. Luckily the sand bag distribution centers have shifted into gear up and down the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 17 minutes ago, TPAwx said: Could be a sneaky surprise for those of us near the bays in Hillsborough and Pinellas. A strengthening TS on that trajectory can bring a lot of flooding and impact to the usual areas. My guess is the center curves inland under the bay and we miss the worst. I hate to be that guy, but since you seem to be from the area I'd like your advice. We have a beach house rental in Indian Rocks Beach starting tomorrow. We're batting around the idea of delaying our trip until Monday or Tuesday. Not being from the area, I'm not sure how much flooding can occur from this kind of system. The house is beachfront. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 28 minutes ago, tiger_deF said: Hard to believe this disturbance is still chugging along as it’s been raked over the entire greater Antilles. Honestly wouldn’t be surprised if nothing developed at all. That being said, conditions are good enough that one has to pay attention. Not even much of what you could call a circulation yet. So no reason to believe that land interaction is an inhibiting factor other reducing the chances of development somewhat in the short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 I know the Canadian is not to be used for tropical systems, but it does pull the system really far west. Could be an indicator of the overall steering pattern needing an adjustment West perhaps...but I know it may as well be tossed entirely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: I know the Canadian is not to be used for tropical systems, but it does pull the system really far west. Could be an indicator of the overall steering pattern needing an adjustment West perhaps...but I know it may as well be tossed entirely It may not be fully relevant, but fwiw the CMC was too far left for the longest before finally changing from a MX final landfall for Beryl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 11 minutes ago, jaydreb said: I hate to be that guy, but since you seem to be from the area I'd like your advice. We have a beach house rental in Indian Rocks Beach starting tomorrow. We're batting around the idea of delaying our trip until Monday or Tuesday. Not being from the area, I'm not sure how much flooding can occur from this kind of system. The house is beachfront. Too much track and intensity uncertainty to give advice with confidence. Wouldn't want to be there, especially with family or little ones, if the track holds and the systems taps into toasty water temps more than modeled. Some degree of surge or flooding is likely even with a low-end TS on that heading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 1 minute ago, TPAwx said: Too much track and intensity uncertainty to give advice with confidence. Wouldn't want to be there, especially with family or little ones, if the track holds and the systems taps into toasty water temps more than modeled. Some degree of surge or flooding is likely even with a low-end TS on that heading. I get it. Probably better safe than sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 22 minutes ago, jaydreb said: I hate to be that guy, but since you seem to be from the area I'd like your advice. We have a beach house rental in Indian Rocks Beach starting tomorrow. We're batting around the idea of delaying our trip until Monday or Tuesday. Not being from the area, I'm not sure how much flooding can occur from this kind of system. The house is beachfront. We stayed beachfront (Bungalow Beach Place) in Indian Shores in 2021 during Hurricane Elsa. There was no flooding and it was a non event. This looks to be of similar intensity and track in the GOM. I would not be afraid to ride it out as long as the projected intensity stays the same. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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