WxWatcher007 Posted August 1 Author Share Posted August 1 4 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: ahhh so thats how you get biggger! well that makes sense lol GIPHY or Imgur are great alternatives to allow for posting that doesn’t take up attachment space. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 12z total precip runs for gfs,cmc,and icon to kinda paint the idea of where they think there heading. they all kinda have the same idea at this point, which is saying a lot compared to what we had been seeing. but with that in mind, any small changes will very likely alter things drastically Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 13 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: GIPHY or Imgur are great alternatives to allow for posting that doesn’t take up attachment space. i tried with giphy but it made the thing 6.4mb still oh well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 15 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: 12z total precip runs for gfs,cmc,and icon to kinda paint the idea of where they think there heading. they all kinda have the same idea at this point, which is saying a lot compared to what we had been seeing. but with that in mind, any small changes will very likely alter things drastically That is pretty useful, it can be used as a pseudo ensemble, and suggests a Florida Big Bend to near OBX track, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 but wait throw in a curveball, the hurricane models are running right now and so far the HAFS-B take it into he gulf and looks like its got its sites on far left part of Florida towards the LA border.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 3 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: That shows the issue with the statistical intensity model. It initializes with a fairly well organized surface low, which doesn't reflect the reality of a low level vorticity in mountainous terrain. Still useful for seeing the likely rate of strengthening once an organized center emerges over water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 1 Author Share Posted August 1 The Euro, which has apparently been lost as of late, delays development until it crosses from the Gulf to SE coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 3 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: but wait throw in a curveball, the hurricane models are running right now and so far the HAFS-B take it into he gulf and looks like its got its sites on far left part of Florida towards the LA border.. Dr. Andy Hazelton, one of the HAFS team leaders at HRD has a pinned tweet about the HAFS before a center has formed. he says don't trust it. I'll feel better tomorrow evenings (morning in Europe) models tomorrow, and even better Saturday evening/Sunday morning, as aircraft first sample around the storm tomorrow and then locate a center Saturday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 wish i could gif this for yall but, best site for any kind of satellite that you want of the entire world, setup like gogle earth.. u can overlay anything dust, fire, temps, lightning, etc!!!! safe to say theres deft no real defined anything imo.. RAMMB/CIRA SLIDER: GOES-16 (East; 75.2W) Satellite Imagery: Full Disk Sector: GeoColor (CIRA) (colostate.edu) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 i thought the gefs didnt really follow the gfs ops but i was mislead looking at the ensemble map on tidbits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 Think the center is more north than shown. Also tons on convection popping up in the last hour. Wouldn't be surprised to see this grow a bit faster than forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 16 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: The Euro, which has apparently been lost as of late, delays development until it crosses from the Gulf to SE coastline. then turns back W w/CHS landfall 228. Torrential rainfall upper GA/SC coasts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 I'm looking at that one GEFS member that loops back around and hits Palm Beach County as a sizeable hurricane... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 recon is out now actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 12 minutes ago, cptcatz said: I'm looking at that one GEFS member that loops back around and hits Palm Beach County as a sizeable hurricane... Like Jeanne but further west. Ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 I’m currently on a cruise ship about 30 NMI N of Hispaniola on a WNW heading. We’re going to pass about 10 NMI South of the Turks and Caicos later tonight. Seas were calm this morning, now 4-6 feet with rain squalls. There was lots of lightning last night as we passed Puerto Rico. Unfortunately we’re headed to the Bahamas and then Port Canaveral on Sunday. Hoping for a Southerly track. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 18 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Interesting, looks like they just flew two AF planes from the USVI back to Biloxi probably to station them there for more Gulf flights the next few days and were like "well we may as well fly through the invest". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 4 minutes ago, cptcatz said: Interesting, looks like they just flew two AF planes from the USVI back to Biloxi probably to station them there for more Gulf flights the next few days and were like "well we may as well fly through the invest". There was 2 that flew that same path. There's also 1 that was in gulf for super short time no idea what happened there and supposedly another plane going out now in that same area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 Just let me get few beach days in at obx and then I’m fine enjoying some action 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 12z Euro batters the GA/SC coast with like 4 straight days of tropical storm rains. Edit: oh man and at hour 216 it turns back into the coast, making it sit there for 6 straights days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 just was looking at the meso models for down south areas, nam, rgem are west coast scrapers for florida, then north east curve... the fv3- Hi res interstingly takes it on the eastern side of florida in atlantic, scrapping or just offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 34 minutes ago, cptcatz said: 12z Euro batters the GA/SC coast with like 4 straight days of tropical storm rains. Edit: oh man and at hour 216 it turns back into the coast, making it sit there for 6 straights days. I had just over 12” in July, which is ~200% of normal with 9” of that just during just the last 2 weeks. All of GA/SC/NC was dominated by well above normal rainfall in July mainly from PM thunderstorms. Torrential rainfall from this next week, should it materialize, could be a more serious problem for the SE just due to how wet it has been. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 22 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: just was looking at the meso models for down south areas, nam, rgem are west coast scrapers for florida, then north east curve... the fv3- Hi res interstingly takes it on the eastern side of florida in atlantic, scrapping or just offshore. The Canadian Regional is close to the end of its modeled area, and I recall the 3 km NAM spun some Gulf storm down below 700 mb. The higher resolution non-global models are generally not used. There are high res hurricane models, but they aren't very accurate until a well defined center is formed. Tweets don't embed for me any longer here so I'm pasting the actual Tweet. Andy Hazelton @AndyHazelton · Jun 27 PSA for folks who track the tropics: hurricane models (like HAFS or HWRF) aren't really designed to be used for invests. We do our tuning and evaluation on storms that have already reached TD+. So the biases are probably larger and more unpredictable at this stage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 1 hour ago, Rvarookie said: Just let me get few beach days in at obx and then I’m fine enjoying some action I'll be down there too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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wthrmn654 Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 bettter view 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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