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Is it me or is it it trying to form a center of rotation here to the north of Hispaniola? If it does spin something up there, that would put it a good bit north of modeling and have it over hot water for much longer than anticipated. 

Screenshot_20240801_105248_Chrome.jpg

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2 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Is it me or is it it trying to form a center of rotation here to the north of Hispaniola? If it does spin something up there, that would put it a good bit north of modeling and have it over hot water for much longer than anticipated. 

Screenshot_20240801_105248_Chrome.jpg

Could be a flare up, but will be interesting to see if it confines etc.

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58 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Is it me or is it it trying to form a center of rotation here to the north of Hispaniola? If it does spin something up there, that would put it a good bit north of modeling and have it over hot water for much longer than anticipated. 

Screenshot_20240801_105248_Chrome.jpg

CIMMS product shows low level vort over the Dominican Republic, where the mountains should keep development in check, and 500 mb vort to the SE of the low level vort, a bit S of the Mona Channel.  A new vortmax could form N of the GA, or maybe under the midlevel vort max, but honestly, I think it is too early to call where the center develops.  Excluding the extreme outliers of the ensembles, I think anywhere ensembles show a possible landfall is in play.

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6 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

its hugging the western side of florida again, about same position as last run east of 00z run though.. looks like something changed to want it to be closer to florida so far

Land friction will keep RI in check. 

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Want to relay an important caveat to all the early ensembles and models - the placement of the broad LLC will be critical in the GOM track. Regardless of whether it has a weak surface reflection at the moment, land interaction over Cuba and the mountains on the west side of the island will likely cause some re-structuring of the mid-level and low level circulation. 

The 12Z GFS has the broad vorticity elongated as it passes Western Cuba at 60 hours but has the LLC forming on the northern fringe of that vort - could easily see a shift by 100s of miles if that formation happens west of that spot. Anyone from LA to the FL coast should be on alert - once its go time, there's not much stopping immediate strengthening.  

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12Z UKMET: slow mover (huge rainfall potential) that moves NNE with a landfall FL panhandle; turns E through N FL and then deepens offshore 

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  90 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 27.9N  85.9W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 05.08.2024   96  28.9N  86.2W     1010            33
    0000UTC 06.08.2024  108  29.2N  85.5W     1009            29
    1200UTC 06.08.2024  120  31.2N  85.1W     1009            29
    0000UTC 07.08.2024  132  30.1N  83.8W     1006            26
    1200UTC 07.08.2024  144  30.8N  82.5W     1003            34
    0000UTC 08.08.2024  156  31.0N  80.4W      997            46
    1200UTC 08.08.2024  168  30.8N  79.5W      994            43
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Dr. Hazelton on Twitter notes the 'squished spider' model tracks, suggesting uncertain steering.  Florida Panhandle or W. Peninsula seems most likely impact point, with a potential second landfall or near miss near OBX and marine effects New England.  As noted on other weatherboards, SSTs and OHC in the E. Gulf is higher than normal, so time over water could make a large difference in intensity.  I would note GFS ensembles make it clear the main determinant of where 97L goes in the next 5 days is where it forms.  As I noted, LLC over mountains of DR, vigorous convection N of G. Antilles, and mid level vorticity SE of low level vorticity, or where it forms is very much in doubt.

1 minute ago, wthrmn654 said:

13662383.gif

You could have edited the previous post or delete the prior post.  The every 2 minute latest hour from the model stuff tends to clutter the board.

 

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2 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Dr. Hazelton on Twitter notes the 'squished spider' model tracks, suggesting uncertain steering.  Florida Panhandle or W. Peninsula seems most likely impact point, with a potential second landfall or near miss near OBX and marine effects New England.  As noted on other weatherboards, SSTs and OHC in the E. Gulf is higher than normal, so time over water could make a large difference in intensity.  I would note GFS ensembles make it clear the main determinant of where 97L goes in the next 5 days is where it forms.  As I noted, LLC over mountains of DR, vigorous convection N of G. Antilles, and mid level vorticity SE of low level vorticity, or where it forms is very much in doubt.

You could have edited the previous post or delete the prior post.  The every 2 minute latest hour from the model stuff tends to clutter the board.

 

was trying to do 1 gif of the whole thing obviously lol unless theres a way im not aware of

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WxMan57 currently buys a system moving N just off W Coast of Florida.  He even has expected wind impacts, but notes without an organized center for models to work with, uncertainty in his forecast is higher than he'd like.

 

Eyeball mean of GFS ensembles suggests Florida Big Bend but landfall location seems to be highly dependent on where the center actually forms.

GEFS_01Aug_12Z.png

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Just now, wthrmn654 said:

was trying to do 1 gif of the whole thing obviously lol unless theres a way im not aware of

 

3 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Dr. Hazelton on Twitter notes the 'squished spider' model tracks, suggesting uncertain steering.  Florida Panhandle or W. Peninsula seems most likely impact point, with a potential second landfall or near miss near OBX and marine effects New England.  As noted on other weatherboards, SSTs and OHC in the E. Gulf is higher than normal, so time over water could make a large difference in intensity.  I would note GFS ensembles make it clear the main determinant of where 97L goes in the next 5 days is where it forms.  As I noted, LLC over mountains of DR, vigorous convection N of G. Antilles, and mid level vorticity SE of low level vorticity, or where it forms is very much in doubt.

You could have edited the previous post or delete the prior post.  The every 2 minute latest hour from the model stuff tends to clutter the board.

 

oh i could upload then use the exsisting uploads in 1 post techincally 

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1 minute ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

I used to be a donating member here, which increases file size limits.  If I make a whole season w/o a suspension I may donate again.

ahhh so thats how you get biggger! well that makes sense lol 

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