WxWatcher007 Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 The vigorous tropical wave that left Africa days ago is now sharpening and becoming more convectively active as it enters the western Atlantic. The signal on guidance has favored tropical cyclone genesis for days now--much closer to the U.S., and the NHC now designates the area as having 60% odds of development in the next week. Originally, the sprawling wave traversed the eastern and central Atlantic devoid of convection due to the presence of strong SAL. While this prevented convection from developing, a combination of low level moisture pooling, high SSTs/OHC, light wind shear, and diminishing influence of SAL has allowed for gradual disorganized convective development, the first step toward TC genesis that's most likely days from now. https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=natl×pan=120hrs&anim=html5 The large wave is now draped across the Greater Antilles, and there are numerous questions over the evolution of the wave in the next 5-7 days. First, how does the wave interaction with the Antilles spur or tighten vorticity? The GFS tried to spawn more robust vorticity after interacting with Haiti/DR, while the Euro for the most part has focused an eventual vortex in the convection that is north of the islands. This obviously has track implications. Second, how does a developing wave take advantage of what is likely to be a favorable upper level environment closer to the US? Does it develop faster, as the Euro until today suggested, and get pulled northward and then kicked OTS or NE by a developing Midwest trough, or, if things are delayed and track into the Gulf as the GFS suggests, where does it go? Third, what will be the steering pattern? There's an increasing signal that the steering pattern between an Atlantic ridge and Midwest trough breaks down as the disturbance reaches the east coast or Gulf, creating immense uncertainty on both track and intensity forecasts. The bottom line is that there's a lot of uncertainty with the forecast ahead. Ensembles are the way to go as we move forward the next few days to get a sense of the envelope of possibilities--which are very broad as it stands. OTS to a Gulf threat are on the table. The Gulf and SE US should watch this closely. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 Yessir! First call is a stall somewhere west of Florida. Complicated setup with blocking madness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 Pretty clear circulation well south of PR this evening, but there are other vort maxes near and north of the island too. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 Welp, there it is... The GFS 00Z OP just showed what a hypothetical TC in the EGOM might do if it loops far enough offshore as opposed to over the coast. Not even going to post it. No need. I'm sure you've all seen it by now anyway.Expect large variations in output intensity from these operational runs from here on out as any slight deviation in TCG position and steering pattern is going to either park the system near-to-over land or offshore, which, of course has huge intensity implications. It's all still very much beyond realistic modeling range and most likely flat wrong. We have no idea what we're going to be dealing with in 4-5 days other than lots of rain for someone.At any rate, I was half expecting one of these OPs to eventually go nuts if that looping pattern kept showing up. Just please realize these outputs of an intense TC may come and go every so often over the next couple of days, perhaps more, as long as a loop/stall keeps getting simulated, and don't let them get to your head! lol... 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 I think the takeaway is as the storm first approaches the coast conditions begin to get very favorable, and continue to be so as the storm stalls. As @Windspeedsaid land interaction is key. Upwelling also might become a factor if it gets very intense before the stall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 You can see where tropical conditions are becoming more favorable in the Pacific as the MJO wave progresses east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 18 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Welp, there it is... The GFS 00Z OP just showed what a hypothetical TC in the EGOM might do if it loops far enough offshore as opposed to over the coast. Not even going to post it. No need. I'm sure you've all seen it by now anyway. Expect large variations in output intensity from these operational runs from here on out as any slight deviation in TCG position and steering pattern is going to either park the system near-to-over land or offshore, which, of course has huge intensity implications. It's all still very much beyond realistic modeling range and most likely flat wrong. We have no idea what we're going to be dealing with in 4-5 days other than lots of rain for someone. At any rate, I was half expecting one of these OPs to eventually go nuts if that looping pattern kept showing up. Just please realize these outputs of an intense TC may come and go every so often over the next couple of days, perhaps more, as long as a loop/stall keeps getting simulated, and don't let them get to your head! lol... The part with extreme rainfall somewhere along the Eastern half of the Gulf Coast seems very possible. I suspect many smaller cities right on the Gulf could handle Harvey-esque rain, but Harvey like rain in New Orleans or Tampa could produce Harvey like rains. I think a 3 day stall is a fairly low possibility. GEFS through 6 days are mostly above 1000 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 It should be noted that the gefs 00z has a handful of Atlantic ensembles as well. In the beginning before it goes left... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 18z eps further in gulf too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 Wow , that cmc is interesting Goes through florida then up through Georgia then the Carolinas then back into Atlantic then up very close to us.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 Icon gets it very close to us as well following a very similar path Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 Early on euro, looks like it lost the storm with nothing out to Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 2 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Early on euro, looks like it lost the storm with nothing out to Monday. 0Z Euro: stays in Gulf through end of run as a weak system; extreme rainfall just off W coast of FL 0Z UKMET: TC into Mississippi that then turns E 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 0Z EPS: another further W shift with almost all in Gulf; most of these landfall NE Gulf but some go to NW Gulf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 Another consequence of the record warm SSTs on the east side of the Gulf could just as easily be the potential for catastrophic flooding in the vicinity, should this wave get trapped under the ridge. The Gulf on average is just behind last year. There’s plenty of uncertainty here until we get a persistent consolidation of convection, and I wonder if we see that occur just along the north coast of Hispaniola and/or Cuba given the frictional convergence that would be favored there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 2 hours ago, purduewx80 said: Another consequence of the record warm SSTs on the east side of the Gulf could just as easily be the potential for catastrophic flooding in the vicinity, should this wave get trapped under the ridge. The Gulf on average is just behind last year. There’s plenty of uncertainty here until we get a persistent consolidation of convection, and I wonder if we see that occur just along the north coast of Hispaniola and/or Cuba given the frictional convergence that would be favored there. Yep in Savanah Ga right now heading to Florida until August 11th. Water temp 89-92 along west coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 The 00Z runs are all over the map. One common theme is frog strangler amounts of rain for Florida. As for the stall over water, I would think upwelling will cap out intensity which the Euro hints at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 6 hours ago, purduewx80 said: Pretty clear circulation well south of PR this evening, but there are other vort maxes near and north of the island too. If I look at the GFS thinking the northern circulation is the one it’s latched on to we shall see in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 GFS with a hurricane landfall on both the gulf and Atlantic coasts of Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Retrobuc Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 What is the timing on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 The 6Z GFS is something to behold. Genesis off Ft. Myers coast Sunday High end TS into Nature Coast on Monday TS off the Savannah coastline Tuesday CAT 1 well off the Jacksonville coastline Wednesday CAT 2 hits Jacksonville Thursday TS over Tallahassee Friday TS over Tallahassee Saturday TS back in GOM south of Cape San Blas on Sunday TS north of Mobile Bay Monday 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 Gefs still has basically 2 clusters one goes up the east coast one goes back into the gulf, after its on the east coast.... talk about head scratching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 What the heck did the 6z euro do? I'm not exactly sure what I'm looking at.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 97L has formed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 2 hours ago, Seminole said: The 00Z runs are all over the map. One common theme is frog strangler amounts of rain for Florida. As for the stall over water, I would think upwelling will cap out intensity which the Euro hints at. Gotta watch out for those frog stranglers. Sorry, couldn't resist. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 22 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: 97L has formed The 12z spaghetti plots will be epic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 22 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: 97L has formed More like 97L has been designated. But yeah, nice to finally have the extra tracking tools. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 Give me a second I have 6z tracks lol there kinda funny as gefs and eps have kinda switched from what I gathered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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