drstuess Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 Radar blowing up in Southern RI. Getting dark outSent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I have to violently disagree with that map. I see a day or two or average to a bit below-average behind the front but we warm very quickly what about it do you disagree with ? that's not below normal. that's a 50-60% chance of being below normal. which is what you basically just intimated - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: what about it do you disagree with ? that's not below normal. that's a 50-60% chance of being below normal. which is what you basically just intimated - Those maps (which quantify temperature/precipitation probabilities) for a given stretch of time I think are nonsense, particularly during the transition seasons. But yeah you're right...all that map is really indicating is there is a 50-60% chance of that period being below-average. But I would like to know what is being weighted in those forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 looks to me like warmth is trying to make a com back during sep 1 to 10 range. these things aren't often very coherent. have to be look for subtleties that by definition are not easily always seen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: Those maps (which quantify temperature/precipitation probabilities) for a given stretch of time I think are nonsense, particularly during the transition seasons. But yeah you're right...all that map is really indicating is there is a 50-60% chance of that period being below-average. But I would like to know what is being weighted in those forecasts. my guess is not much prior to these last 24 hour trends but don't quote that 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cardinalland Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 drizzling here but the drops are MASSIVE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 50 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Those maps (which quantify temperature/precipitation probabilities) for a given stretch of time I think are nonsense, particularly during the transition seasons. But yeah you're right...all that map is really indicating is there is a 50-60% chance of that period being below-average. But I would like to know what is being weighted in those forecasts. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 10% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 30% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 20% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 Wild uns Wednesday Wednesday will be the focus for impactful weather in the extended forecast period. The forecast remains on track with hot and a very humid airmass pushing into southern New England and though the ensemble probabilities of 90F in the CT valley have backed off in the last 24 hours, upper 80 are likely and it will feel quite humid thanks to dewpoints in the 70s. All the ingredients are there for another round of thunderstorms, though timing and details remain uncertain. Forcing will be provided by a passing mid level shortwave, surface frontal convergence, and placement beneath the RRQ of an 85 kt upper jet. The atmosphere will be anomalously moist with the aforementioned dewpoints and PWATs approaching 2 inches. This contributes to instability on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE. This is a recipe for widespread showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be severe given 0-6 km bulk shear of 30-40 kts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 Looks southwest 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 Maybe we can get leftover MCS near dawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 1 hour ago, cardinalland said: drizzling here but the drops are MASSIVE So not drizzle then 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 We Big.. we Uns.. We Wednesday Big Uns Wednesday 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We Big.. we Uns.. We Wednesday Big Uns Wednesday 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 Just now, dendrite said: Unfortunately might be tucking it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 12 minutes ago, dendrite said: Wild uns Wednesday 90 south WUW90S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 3 hours ago, mreaves said: I knew it had been cold this month, KMPV is only at +0.9! +1.7 here and +1.6 St Johnsbury… but BTV down to -0.3 as the overnight lows don’t impact them as much (don’t radiate). Been as close to a below normal month as you’ll get here. Anything under +2 these days is a win against Earth’s inferno. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 15 minutes ago, dendrite said: Anthony did a great Dice Clay Impersonation. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 Hickory dickory dock ............I'll stop there. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 Sign of the times is the first high elevation snows out west. Sierra spots like Mammoth, Palisades/Alpine Meadows, Kirkwood saw snow, as did interior Rockies spots like Jackson Hole (pictured here). It’s crazy to me these guys can get a coating of snow in August, while places in New England can be begging for it even in December. Yes, I know they are at 10,000ft. Still. Though if we had 10,000ft elevations that recent ULL would’ve been a big snowstorm at that elevation, so sort of checks out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 Pretty sweet sunset tonight. I'm sure there's going to be some beautiful pics. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 1 hour ago, DavisStraight said: Hickory dickory dock ............I'll stop there. Little boy blue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Little boy blue? Have you've ever seen Andrew Dice Clay? He was a thing back in the 80s. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 19 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: Have you've ever seen Andrew Dice Clay? He was a thing back in the 80s. No but I’ve heard a lot of his stuff lol. Live at MSG was great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cardinalland Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 3 hours ago, dendrite said: So not drizzle then LOL but that’s the only way i know how to describe it occasional giant drops, like every couple seconds a fat drop falls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Little boy blue? Mary Mary.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 5 minutes ago, cardinalland said: LOL but that’s the only way i know how to describe it occasional giant drops, like every couple seconds a fat drop falls I gotchya. But drizzle and rain are defined by droplet size. Drizzle is less than 0.5mm and rain is 0.5mm or greater. So if you were getting giant drops it was simply light rain (-RA) or a light rain shower (-SHRA). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 32 minutes ago, Dan76 said: Mary Mary.... Why ya buggin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 1 hour ago, kdxken said: GEFS and EPS are largely similar in 850mb anomalies during that time period. Day 8-12 means… 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 How concerned do folks get over equine encephalitis? Always worries me a bit in big years considering the time I spend outdoors. Had a classmate in elementary school die of it. If it can take a third grader I wouldn't stand a chance. "How dangerous is EEE? The most serious complication associated with the disease is known as encephalitis, or inflammation and swelling of the brain, DPH says. There’s no treatment for EEE and about half of the people who contracted it in Massachusetts died from the infection, officials say. In 2019, 12 people were infected with EEE in Massachusetts and six died 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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