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August "Ughust" 2024 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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16 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

why does the cmc only come out when it shows cold or snow?

because human beings create models, and human beings are more or less influenced ( but always are some way, some how ...) by the existential connection to their sensible surroundings.

lot of words to say ... cold and snow is their primary ongoing risks ( or used to be ...) so some how, some way, that influences the way they construct their environmental tooling that is charged with the responsibility of predicting threats. 

it's not a directive ... more of an indirect bias, hugely subtle.

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23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You could also just burn my last two outlooks.....given the length, they should keep you warm.

I know you’re joking but they’re still worth the effort, even if they didn’t turn out as well as you (and we all) hoped. 

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

because human beings create models, and human beings are more or less influenced ( but always are some way, some how ...) by the existential connection to their sensible surroundings.

lot of words to say ... cold and snow is their primary ongoing risks ( or used to be ...) so some how, some way, that influences the way they construct their environmental tooling that is charged with the responsibility of predicting threats. 

it's a directive ... it's an indirect bias, hugely subtle.

I also want to be clear that wasn't a jab towards the OP, but moreso a jab at the good ole Twitter (or X but I will never call it X). 

But I always find it funny as we move through the fall and winter all of a sudden everyone is posting all these different models as if they're searching around for whatever model shows a snow threat or cold shot and then doing what they can to hype it up and create potential just because its something a model shows. 

 

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26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Social media is like an epidemic amongst the met community...so many affected.

Feel like that applies to all aspects of society too.  Just wading through the pool of bad posts for the few gold nuggets.

75/54 and just about perfect outside.

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

I'm not sure :lol: 

Not even sure why I said CMC there since it was the CFS that was posted. 

They are both associated with cold outcomes.  Like you said, you never see CMC and CFS torches posted.

I can’t wait for my 400” of CMC snow.  A few friends and I call it the “Canadian Tire” model as it tries to sell as many snow tires as possible each season.

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4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I know you’re joking but they’re still worth the effort, even if they didn’t turn out as well as you (and we all) hoped. 

yeah i know ... 

was just doubling down on the cynicism and how no matter who it is, humans are subjective

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pretty soon we'll be getting posts from metfan at 3:48 PM while he's on his break posting a 384 JMA map that shows some blue on the ptype maps and get all aroused thinking there is a chance for snow. Or him coming in at 4:05 to tell us the EPS looks good even though we've been discussing it for 2 hours

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5 hours ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Yup, Oxford was ground zero in May 2018.  Although I'm not sure how bad it was in the 1989 tornado, from what I've read most damage was in Hamden where entire neighborhoods were destroyed. 

Southbury, Oxford, Beacon Falls, Bethany, and Hamden.  1989, 2018, 2024 (excluding Bethany/Hamden). One straight line across central western CT.  Disaster upon disaster.  I am sure insurance underwriters have those towns highlighted in red.  

Otherwise, an outstanding day today.  73, low humidity, gentle breeze.  Estate sales, dump runs, grocery shopping, wood stacking.  

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31 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

why does the cmc only come out when it shows cold or snow?

because it is the only model capable of showing a snow hurricane past D7 in the fall .. or at least it used to 

speaking of which I always knew about the famous 1804 one .. but apparently there was another one in 1841 :lol: 

 

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47 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

One of my long term projects is to get a wood or pellet stove in my house. Getting a fireplace built doesn’t seem feasible. 

Fireplaces are impractical and costly for heat.  If your stove will be in a finished room, get something like a nice Lopi or Jotul with a glass door.  You can usually get them to connect into an existing fireplace, too. 

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2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

i think it was a CC attributable meander...  ( i can guarantee there is a misconception that attribution is limited to those circumstances that make for dystopian headlines ... but the insidious nature is that it's probably taking place in subtler ways more so than not - albeit unknowable to common experience, and even some of these PHD clowns)

there's an interesting paper about this out there where meanders are shown, using climate modeling/super computing, toting cold to mid latitudes  at varying scales. they are causing huge temperature variations across relatively short time spans ( intra seasonally..).  

this strikes me pretty clearly as relatable to all that - ultimately oblivious due to the non-injurious nature.

Saw BTV post some stats that were pretty interesting from this cool shot.

Numerous sites in BTV's CWA recorded their coldest August max temps in 20-30 years.  That's not for nothing, as it's for the entire month of August, not just daily highs.

Burlington's 62F max was the coldest in August since 1994.

Saranac Lake's 56F max was coldest since 1997.

Massena's 59F max was coldest since 1994.

Montpelier's 58F max was coldest since 1988.

That's a decent trough for the time of year.

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38 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Saw BTV post some stats that were pretty interesting from this cool shot.

Numerous sites in BTV's CWA recorded their coldest August max temps in 20-30 years.  That's not for nothing, as it's for the entire month of August, not just daily highs.

Burlington's 62F max was the coldest in August since 1994.

Saranac Lake's 56F max was coldest since 1997.

Massena's 59F max was coldest since 1994.

Montpelier's 58F max was coldest since 1988.

That's a decent trough for the time of year.

these'll probably go on to roller coaster the autumn ...  dipping to near cryo and then soaring to 80 at week's range, clear into novie.   this, i suspect, is related/causal i why these october snow chances have become all but common in recent decade(s)

heh..every time it snows across the bow air mass, we get this optimism bi-polarism that slams shut when it's 77.8 F 3 days later.

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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

I also want to be clear that wasn't a jab towards the OP, but moreso a jab at the good ole Twitter (or X but I will never call it X). 

But I always find it funny as we move through the fall and winter all of a sudden everyone is posting all these different models as if they're searching around for whatever model shows a snow threat or cold shot and then doing what they can to hype it up and create potential just because its something a model shows. 

 

kevin still looking for HHH

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