WinterWolf Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 1 minute ago, Amped said: The HRDPS, which was the only model to show a precip bullseye over SW CT, shows another 2-5" across the area already hit, similar to the HRRR. That would be pretty incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 2 minutes ago, BrianW said: Route 67 in Seymour. Who the hell makes the decision to drive through that? It's not like it comes within 10 seconds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 3 minutes ago, Amped said: The HRDPS, which was the only model to show a precip bullseye over SW CT, shows another 2-5" across the area already hit, similar to the HRRR. 12z yeah. 00z swiss had an inclination as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0901 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 645 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Areas affected...Northeast Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 182244Z - 190444Z Summary...Widespread flash flooding continues this evening across the Northeast, which will continue through the evening. Additional considerable to locally catastrophic impacts cannot be ruled out, especially over areas impacted by ongoing/earlier rainfall. Discussion...Widespread thunderstorms are underway across the Northeast ahead of a slow moving cold front analyzed across central Pennsylvania and western New York. Over the last several hours, rainfall rates upwards of 2"/hr combined with cell training and repeating have have led to numerous reports of impactful flash flooding across the region. RAP proximity soundings in the vicinity of these cells highlight a very favorable environment to drive intense rainfall rates upwards of 2"/hr, including a nearly saturated profile with 1.8-1.9" PWAT, 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE (in a "tall-skinny" profile), and warm cloud depths around 10,000 feet. While the mean-flow will support relatively quick cell motions of 25-30 kts, the parallel orientation to the synoptic forcing will favor training and repeating with slow eastward progression. As these storms continue over saturated soils and urban areas, the threat of significant flash flooding will continue through this evening, with 18Z HREF neighborhood probabilities showing a very high (70-80%) chance of 3 HR FFG exceedence through 3z. Additional considerable to locally catastrophic flash flooding impacts cannot be ruled out going forward, especially over areas hit hard from ongoing/previous rainfall, including western Connecticut which as seen 10+" of rainfall today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 5 minutes ago, Patrick-02540 said: Who the hell makes the decision to drive through that? It's not like it comes within 10 seconds. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJln491 Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 6 minutes ago, Patrick-02540 said: Who the hell makes the decision to drive through that? It's not like it comes within 10 seconds. Sorry I was craving a Whopper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 I feel for the fine folks of Connecticut. If there is one saving grace it's that it wasn't Vermont again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Holy shit. I was just there for a wedding a few months ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 Weak convection is firing along the SW coast again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Weak convection is firing along the SW coast again. Yup, just saw that too…she won’t quit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 We kid around, but man…I wouldn’t wish that on anyone. Thankfully he has cradled us all summer. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 Jesus 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 19 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Good Lord, that is awful. The stories of destruction just keep on coming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 Skies clearing a bit here as W CT experiences Armageddon . .81 seems like a wetting of the ground compared to those guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 more showers popping here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 9 minutes ago, Patrick-02540 said: Good Lord, that is awful. The stories of destruction just keep on coming. Everyone got out safely but it was a close call. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 Heavy rain should stay south it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 Actually nrn part may need to be watched for any interaction with the boundary nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 Bunch of drunks in an Oxford bar flooded with water, filming houses and playgrounds floating by. Pretty funny. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Actually nrn part may need to be watched for any interaction with the boundary nearby. SE CT/S RI might get some decent rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 Where exactly is this front situatef currently? Seems like the warm front should be up near the pike? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 Jesus the worst of that next batch is crawling right for ground zero today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 2 hours ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: 13.5” now around that area All time state 24 hr record old one 12.77 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 7.82” today as we prepare for round 2 now. Hopefully this stuff is more progressive but adding any more water at this point is awful. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Jesus the worst of that next batch is crawling right for ground zero today Hopefully it weakens with loss of daytime heating? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 11 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Jesus the worst of that next batch is crawling right for ground zero today Another 2-3 inches right on the bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 atleast refreshing weather is coming Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 47. Northwest wind 3 to 6 mph. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 8 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: atleast refreshing weather is coming Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 47. Northwest wind 3 to 6 mph. Talk about the torch next weekend and beyond 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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