HoarfrostHubb Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 My sister lives in Oxford, CT and has feet of water in her first floor/basement where she runs a business. 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Frieken thing is back building again…..she don’t wanna quit? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Lol..I was gonna write that..but didn’t want to sound too cliche’ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: sorry... I'm just a cave man and these common vernacularisms of typing escape me ... but 'ehhh' comes off as flippantly dismissive of people being shocked by this. Everyone very much should be shocked and appalled at a foot+ of zero notification explosions of water. I'm bustin ur balliez a little here .. but seriously, there's nothing about Friday that suggested anything like this. We seem to be in an era now where a whole dimension of atmospheric phenomenon can not be foreseen by this state of technology that's in place. fascinating If only we had looked a little more in depth on Friday we would’ve seen a dozen towns breaking the CT 24hr precip record. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: sorry... I'm just a cave man and these common vernacularisms of typing escape me ... but 'ehhh' comes off as flippantly dismissive of people being shocked by this. Everyone very much should be shocked and appalled at a foot+ of zero notification explosions of water. I'm bustin ur balliez a little here .. but seriously, there's nothing about Friday that suggested anything like this. We seem to be in an era now where a whole dimension of atmospheric phenomenon can not be foreseen by this state of technology that's in place. fascinating I get what you're saying. I wasn't coming across saying the signal was there Friday for rainfall totals like this or anything close to this. The only thing I was saying was it shouldn't have been a surprise there would be heavy rain today...that's all. Flooding events are extremely unique. One aspect of forecasting that is a big struggle is the forecasting of rainfall totals, especially in setups which involve stationary/occluded boundaries and when there is training involved. And this isn't a fault of anyone, it just goes to show challenging these situations are and this gets into your last sentence there. What also is intriguing about this is, how many times have we seen forecast models overstate rainfall totals during certain setups, but then in setups like these they just completely bomb? Clearly, we need to better understand the physics and processes behind this. There will certainly be some re-analysis done on this event when everything is looked it, it will be obvious how we got to this. I think Sey-Mour Snow already showed some of this. What we need to figure out is how do we take the after analysis to make the forecasting/awareness better? We always seem to understand how things happened after the fact, but we struggle with the before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I get what you're saying. I wasn't coming across saying the signal was there Friday for rainfall totals like this or anything close to this. The only thing I was saying was it shouldn't have been a surprise there would be heavy rain today...that's all. Flooding events are extremely unique. One aspect of forecasting that is a big struggle is the forecasting of rainfall totals, especially in setups which involve stationary/occluded boundaries and when there is training involved. And this isn't a fault of anyone, it just goes to show challenging these situations are and this gets into your last sentence there. What also is intriguing about this is, how many times have we seen forecast models overstate rainfall totals during certain setups, but then in setups like these they just completely bomb? Clearly, we need to better understand the physics and processes behind this. There will certainly be some re-analysis done on this event when everything is looked it, it will be obvious how we got to this. I think Seymourwx already showed some of this. What we need to figure out is how do we take the after analysis to make the forecasting/awareness better? We always seem to understand how things happened after the fact, but we struggle with the before. I don't yeah I'm not sure that's possible without some sort of innovative thinking ... maybe even savantistic special order insight. The present era of technology appears to be incapable. To many times these things are occurring where antecedent indicators were blind to them going off - all over the world with alarming increasing frequencies, involving not just rain. I mean weird wind. Strange atmospheric boogie man bullshit. These are blind shot events. Heh, sounds like a good intro to a sci fi. Only problem is, the proportions of that are essentially true. hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 Well now that the band is reaching my backyard it’s narrowing and drying up. You’re welcome, Connecticut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I don't yeah I'm not sure that's possible without some sort of innovative thinking ... maybe even savantistic special order insight. The present era of technology appears to be incapable. To many times these things are occurring where antecedent indicators were blind to them going off - all over the world with alarming increasing frequencies, involving not just rain. I mean weird wind. Strange atmospheric boogie man bullshit. These are blind shot events. Heh, sounds like a good intro to a sci fi. Only problem is, the proportions of that are essentially true. hahaha Every aspect of life seems to have improved with technology except weather modelings! Why doesn’t it seem so bad or so inconsistent?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 6.5” here 15.05” jack Stevenson dam 2 miles away 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 This will be a great case study to pour over and see the cause and why models missed it . Understand the science. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 Hrrr has another several inches later from the stuff to our west 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 7 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: Every aspect of life seems to have improved with technology except weather modelings! Why doesn’t it seem so bad or so inconsistent?? The atmosphere is increasingly more chaotic which negates some technological advancements imo. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJln491 Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 heavy stuff in W. Hartford rolling in. Some streets around here were already starting to flood and this is probably heaviest rain yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I don't yeah I'm not sure that's possible without some sort of special innovative thinking ... maybe even savantistic special order insight. The present era of technology appears to be incapable. To many times these things are occurring where antecedent indicators are blind to these them going off - all over the world with alarming increase frequencies, involving not just rain but weird wind. Strange atmospheric boogie man bullshit. These are blind shot events. Heh, sounds like a good intro to a sci fi. Only problem is, the proportions of that are essentially true. hahaha Is it possible that the processes behind these type of events are just so small-scale that modeling is unable to resolve them (even the highest resolution grids)? Today was largely a product of back-building and the process behind back-building are such small scale I don't think our technology is that advanced yet to model this process. I guess maybe one positive about the increasing frequencies of such events is that with enough studies maybe something can be developed in the near-future as we continue to better understand them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Hrrr has another several inches later from the stuff to our west And a lot of lightning in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 12 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: Every aspect of life seems to have improved with technology except weather modelings! Why doesn’t it seem so bad or so inconsistent?? Mm ..I understand the frustration. But, the vagaries of wind, and the weather that transpires because of it, that is not like controlling electrons along imprinted wafer chips and so forth - which is the technology you refer to when acknowledging 'life's advantages' for having access to it. Try to make this brief but, Quantum Computing technology has been recently proven possible, to the extent that it is actually almost ready to leave the lab and head to beta environments. People don't really grasp what Quantum Computing really is - it's difficult for the every day intellect to wrap their mind around that. Not saying that is you ...or any of the other of the best and brightest current readers ( ), but tech as we know it ( computation in computing) is still and always has been about faster and faster computing binary, 1 vs 0 ... On or off. Instructions carried about in dizzying speeds, granted - so fast that no one reading can really conceptualize how fast a terabyte of date done in a second really is.. QC doesn't run instructions to solve problems. QC knows all the possible answers. instantly. I just gave this rhetorical run-down to say ...maybe QC has an fantastic horizon in the field of spontaneity - to wit, the vagaries of the wind are so highly subjected to chaos. The spontaneous emergence, which has its horizon in the quantum field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Hrrr has another several inches later from the stuff to our west I think We have to believe it…it was the only thing showing this monstrosity, even if it was still too light with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 Another location with dozens stranded 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Wow. That’s the worst one yet. I was going to head down to take pics but I’ll adhere to the FFE. I spoke to my mom. She is high enough to not be affected, but I will be checking her basement. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 11 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Hrrr has another several inches later from the stuff to our west For where? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said: Another location with dozens stranded Damn...I haven't been to Kettletown in years (used to hike there with my ex) but its a nice little spot. Hope everyone is alright, that is not an area you would want to be caught in flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 Just now, Modfan2 said: For where? Here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 2 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: For where? It(the radar)Seems to be heading up for this area from the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: It(the radar)Seems to be heading up for this area from the SW. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Outside shot for a 20 burger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Daily record seems like a lock. Truly extraordinary day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: That’s still to come overnight …? That’s valid at 10 am tomorrow morning. That’s another massive chunk if it played out like that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 Route 67 in Seymour. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Throw it up for those driving I’ve heard you have a knack for doing that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 The HRDPS, which was the only model to show a precip bullseye over SW CT, shows another 2-5" across the area already hit, similar to the HRRR. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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