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August "Ughust" 2024 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Ehhh the signals were there for a lot of rain. Mentioned that Friday but everyone was too busy worried about a fake tropical threat and the colors of 8-14D WPC maps

Eh. Nws had .1-.25 as of 10am this morning with locally more in t storms. I guess locally stretches that range to 10”….

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1 minute ago, FXWX said:

Amazing the number of locally excessive rainfall events we have seen over the past 2 or 3 years across the Northeast.

To the extent that FFEs are new, I think most of them have happened in recent memory.

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Eh. Nws had .1-.25 as of 10am this morning with locally more in t storms. I guess locally stretches that range to 10”….

I didn't read any discussions or forecasts for today/tomorrow so not sure what the communication on it was. Granted I didn't look heavily myself but on Friday I thought the signals were there for "alot of rain". But these events are extremely challenging to forecast. I am not sure if you can even really forecast something like (especially to pin-point locally) this well in-advance just because of the mesoscale factors that tend to be in play. I mean how can you really pin-point exactly where training will occur, what rates will be, and the duration of those rates? Similar with winter storms...can be impossible to figure out exactly where that narrow band of intense snow/totals will occur until you see the pieces lining up. 

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30 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

So, what are the dynamics causing this? Doesn’t seem that humid and wouldn’t think a cold front would dump this much rain? 

Go the SPC meso analysis page and scroll through the upper air section and the heavy rainfall section... deep-layered southerly flow with high values of  precipitable water converging into southwest and southern CT on into parts of central CT... Note the Precipitation potential placement image...

image.thumb.png.4f865ed3d37e664799c72f2cb1b2b7b0.png

 

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I didn't read any discussions or forecasts for today/tomorrow so not sure what the communication on it was. Granted I didn't look heavily myself but on Friday I thought the signals were there for "alot of rain". But these events are extremely challenging to forecast. I am not sure if you can even really forecast something like (especially to pin-point locally) this well in-advance just because of the mesoscale factors that tend to be in play. I mean how can you really pin-point exactly where training will occur, what rates will be, and the duration of those rates? Similar with winter storms...can be impossible to figure out exactly where that narrow band of intense snow/totals will occur until you see the pieces lining up. 

I get that At a high level but we’ve had flood watches that fail from synoptics events while today is causing loss of property and life without a single word of potential flooding before the rain got going. Not one. I’m not blaming them but to act like this isnt a public bust for a fairly populated zone is also being disingenuous.  

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I get that At a high level but we’ve had flood watches that fail from synoptics events while today is causing loss of property and life without a single word of potential flooding before the rain got going. Not one. I’m not blaming them but to act like this isnt a public bust for a fairly populated zone is also being disingenuous.  

I think there have been some discussions in the past on here about flood watches and communication on potential for flooding. I totally get what you're saying. We often see flood watches and here about potential for flooding but 99.999% of the time its really just some poor drainage flooding or a handful of roads with ponding. 

I think how flooding potential is communicated (prior and during) needs to be heavily revisited. Flood watches/flash flood watches get tossed around way too much and there really is no discriminator between something that may be extremely localized to something which may be more widespread. Even for convective you have PDS wording to discriminate between higher end potential. 

 

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14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Look at the stuff coming up south of LI ti merge with the CT rains. Long night ahead 

 

8 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Go the SPC meso analysis page and scroll through the upper air section and the heavy rainfall section... deep-layered southerly flow with high values of  precipitable water converging into southwest and southern CT on into parts of central CT... Note the Precipitation potential placement image...

image.thumb.png.4f865ed3d37e664799c72f2cb1b2b7b0.png

 

Not sure what’s going to happen here, but I’m definitely watching what’s coming up from the Sound. 

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14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Yes sir. And who needs Ernesto…we got our own massive rain event happening out of pretty much nowhere today.  

Yup.  Probably wouldn't get this much water with Ernie anyway. Our cars and chicken coops may have washed away, but we still have our homes. 

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