dendrite Posted August 18, 2024 Share Posted August 18, 2024 Some of those convective bands were dancing around in the longer loops…almost looked like a norlun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 18, 2024 Share Posted August 18, 2024 anyone noticed that 'busts' lately are GInormous ... ? That's new. Used to be a forecast for 2-4" of snow ended up 8 to 10" Impressive enough. In 1997 1-3" of slop not only busted clear to 20", it did so with temperatures well below and too cold be qualified anywhere close slop. It was 26F in Acton and we got 16" ... 21" up here along Rt 2 from that. But that "kind" of over the top excessive and unreasonable punishment scale of busting is seems to be getting more common. Like Leomenster last year, or these freak shows in VT, or Brian getting 40" in 6 hours ins 2021 ( was that already 3 years ago!). The bust behaviors are beyond the pail ... like these Tsar Bomba events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 18, 2024 Share Posted August 18, 2024 On 8/18/2024 at 5:47 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Dews delivers again ! Expand Thanks. Just another great wet summeh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 18, 2024 Author Share Posted August 18, 2024 Remember the mostly "dry Sunday" in the forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 18, 2024 Share Posted August 18, 2024 On 8/18/2024 at 5:55 PM, Torch Tiger said: Remember the mostly "dry Sunday" in the forecast Expand He’s got his webbed hands, helping us out here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted August 18, 2024 Share Posted August 18, 2024 Any models show that much rain near Wilton? Sheesh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 18, 2024 Author Share Posted August 18, 2024 On 8/18/2024 at 5:56 PM, CoastalWx said: He’s got his webbed hands, helping us out here. Expand 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted August 18, 2024 Share Posted August 18, 2024 On 8/18/2024 at 5:59 PM, Sn0waddict said: Any models show that much rain near Wilton? Sheesh Expand Northern Wilton/ Georgetown jack so far 8.98” wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 18, 2024 Share Posted August 18, 2024 On 8/18/2024 at 6:04 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said: North Wilton jack so far 8.98” wow Expand There some flood prone areas just north of the Merritt too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 18, 2024 Share Posted August 18, 2024 What a bust is right….the day of now and it can’t be forecast. Friday it was mostly dry for today. Yesterday it was 50% chance of rain for today. Today we drown. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted August 18, 2024 Share Posted August 18, 2024 On 8/18/2024 at 6:07 PM, WinterWolf said: What a bust is right….the day of now and it can’t be forecast. Friday it was mostly dry for today. Yesterday it was 50% chance of rain for today. Today we drown. Expand The over reliance on futurecast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted August 18, 2024 Share Posted August 18, 2024 On 8/18/2024 at 6:07 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: There some flood prone areas just north of the Merritt too. Expand Ya it was a widespread 2.5” per hour band too .. Jack is right in RT 7 in Georgetown now just hit 10.0” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 18, 2024 Share Posted August 18, 2024 10”…lol not one model run had anything even close to this type of event. Pathetic. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 18, 2024 Share Posted August 18, 2024 On 8/18/2024 at 6:11 PM, Great Snow 1717 said: The over reliance on futurecast... Expand What old school techniques would you have used to forecast this event? Sometimes things just happen but our culture today is always looking for something or someone to blame. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted August 18, 2024 Share Posted August 18, 2024 On 8/18/2024 at 6:13 PM, WinterWolf said: 10”…lol not one model run had anything even close to this type of event. Pathetic. Expand Nope the HRRR was def hinting at some big totals in SENY and extreme SWCT though had some 4-7” jacks on some runs on it. The intense rain is rotating back into my hood now might be over 3” after that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 18, 2024 Share Posted August 18, 2024 On 8/18/2024 at 6:18 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said: Nope the HRRR was def hinting at some big totals in SENY and extreme SWCT though had some 4-7” jacks on some runs on it. The intense rain is rotating back into my hood now might be over 3” after that. Expand But I assume it was tossed/discarded as an extreme outlier right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 18, 2024 Share Posted August 18, 2024 3”/hr in the red 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 18, 2024 Share Posted August 18, 2024 On 8/18/2024 at 6:24 PM, WinterWolf said: But I assume it was tossed/discarded as an extreme outlier right? Expand I mean, it’s an extreme mesoscale event about the size of a county. Thats asking a lot from models on that scale. If the entire state of CT was getting 5-10”, yeah that’s a problem… we’ve seen a lot of these small footprint uber-extreme rainfall events the past few years. This one is just hitting a very highly populated area too. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 18, 2024 Share Posted August 18, 2024 Yeah hrrr had wet runs. It’s been doing well lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 18, 2024 Share Posted August 18, 2024 On 8/18/2024 at 6:11 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said: Ya it was a widespread 2.5” per hour band too .. Jack is right in RT 7 in Georgetown now just hit 10.0” Expand 5.35” here but by the time I am done typing this post, i’ll probably be at 5.50”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted August 18, 2024 Share Posted August 18, 2024 On 8/18/2024 at 6:11 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said: Ya it was a widespread 2.5” per hour band too .. Jack is right in RT 7 in Georgetown now just hit 10.0” Expand Sure glad that missed here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 18, 2024 Share Posted August 18, 2024 On 8/18/2024 at 6:15 PM, powderfreak said: What old school techniques would you have used to forecast this event? Sometimes things just happen but our culture today is always looking for something or someone to blame. Expand Lol…not looking to blame anything. Just pointing out it’s a massive bust out here. I couldn’t give two terds in blaming anybody, as you said, sometimes it just happens. But it’s still a big fail for this area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted August 18, 2024 Share Posted August 18, 2024 That’s some extremely heavy rain in the Monroe area. Still not done raining near Georgetown either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 18, 2024 Share Posted August 18, 2024 Let’s back build. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 18, 2024 Share Posted August 18, 2024 On 8/18/2024 at 6:43 PM, WinterWolf said: Lol…not looking to blame anything. Just pointing out it’s a massive bust out here. I couldn’t give two terds in blaming anybody, as you said, sometimes it just happens. But it’s still a big fail for this area. Expand It’s just such a small footprint in the grand scheme of things from a modeling standpoint. There were signs there but if you were looking for the GFS and EURO to put a 5-10 spot over one county, not happening. Hopefully someone can pull a foot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 18, 2024 Share Posted August 18, 2024 On 8/18/2024 at 6:29 PM, powderfreak said: I mean, it’s an extreme mesoscale event about the size of a county. Thats asking a lot from models on that scale. If the entire state of CT was getting 5-10”, yeah that’s a problem… we’ve seen a lot of these small footprint uber-extreme rainfall events the past few years. This one is just hitting a very highly populated area too. Expand Summer is hard enough with weak Synoptics nevermind mesoscale events. I didn’t look but maybe hrrr hinted at something here. This time of year into October can have prolific rain events. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 18, 2024 Share Posted August 18, 2024 On 8/18/2024 at 6:46 PM, CoastalWx said: Summer is hard enough with weak Synoptics nevermind mesoscale events. I didn’t look but maybe hrrr hinted at something here. This time of year into October can have prolific rain events. Expand Yeah we saw it a couple weeks ago… no model had 8+” falling in Saint Johnsbury and NEK in 4 hours. The footprint size on that event looks very similar to this one. A county, maybe county and a half? I mean I’d be super impressed if the models started nailing these. Good luck with that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 18, 2024 Share Posted August 18, 2024 On 8/18/2024 at 6:49 PM, powderfreak said: Yeah we saw it a couple weeks ago… no model had 8+” falling in Saint Johnsbury and NEK in 4 hours. The footprint size on that event looks very similar to this one. A county, maybe county and a half? I mean I’d be super impressed if the models started nailing these. Good luck with that though. Expand 6z hrrr hinted at it too. Interesting. Lets back build. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted August 18, 2024 Share Posted August 18, 2024 Not sure I’ve ever seen such a large area of 8-10” in these parts 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 18, 2024 Share Posted August 18, 2024 On 8/18/2024 at 6:51 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said: Not sure I’ve ever seen such a large area of 8-10” in these parts Expand Epic model bust but HRRR had it late-Upton had no flood watches here either....heaviest to my west but a good 3 inches here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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