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August "Ughust" 2024 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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heh

what is this social media support group gonna be like when this winter’s zactly like the last 3 or 4 of em, despite all leading interpolated indicators, interpretations, seasonal forecasts and arguments 

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Might as well live in San Diego at this point given how boring the weather has been lately. We don't get hurricanes anymore. We don't get wind or good thunderstorms anymore either. Winter is our most exciting season around here but even that hasn't produced any good storms in recent years. Even England gets better windstorms than us. Nova Scotia gets great storms too.

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37 minutes ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said:

Might as well live in San Diego at this point given how boring the weather has been lately. We don't get hurricanes anymore. We don't get wind or good thunderstorms anymore either. Winter is our most exciting season around here but even that hasn't produced any good storms in recent years. Even England gets better windstorms than us. Nova Scotia gets great storms too.

winter? lol

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2 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

Those Godly cutters last winter were exciting, admittedly.  I guess CoS is correct? 

I was talking about snowstorms mostly. The 2010s from what I've heard were anomaly unfortunately. The 2020s are like what the 1980s were for snow....except that it's not even cold like it was in the 80s. Just nasty drizzle and fog for four months. In terms of cutters, unless November 1950 comes walking through that door, it's not even that exciting either. A couple of good gusts for an hour or so and that's it. But it's all we have to look forward to in terms of weather in the winter now. Summer has always been boring except for the rare hurricane or tornado. New England doesn't get the same extremes that other areas of the country get.

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10 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

heh

what is this social media support group gonna be like when this winter’s zactly like the last 3 or 4 of em, despite all leading interpolated indicators, interpretations, seasonal forecasts and arguments 

I think that likely reality is much more widely accepted this season. But who knows....get an active N stream with a fortuitously timed Aleutian boner and we could steal some thunder, however fleeting it may be.

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Gonna preface this with the disclosure that I understand that dews and probably heat are not done with us yet, but this AM was a refreshing first harbinger of fall.

Solar max is over this weekend and the heat doesn't have quite the same bite when Australian tushies begin to grill on car seats.

52.5 for the low.

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11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Gonna preface this with the disclosure that I understand that dews and probably heat are not done with us yet, but this AM was a refreshing first harbinger of fall.

Solar max is over this weekend and the heat doesn't have quite the same bite when Australian tushies begin to grill on car seats.

52.5 for the low.

I believe it was during the heat wave around July 13-15th we both agreed that 90s type heat waves were probably done for the summer.  Was it oppressively humid after that sure but not many 90’s days and that theme will continue. 

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30 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I believe it was during the heat wave around July 13-15th we both agreed that 90s type heat waves were probably done for the summer.  Was it oppressively humid after that sure but not many 90’s days and that theme will continue. 

I feel like we had plenty of 90s since then. 
 

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think that likely reality is much more widely accepted this season. But who knows....get an active N stream with a fortuitously timed Aleutian boner and we could steal some thunder, however fleeting it may be.

A little smidge of sarcasm in that, too but yeah ... there's been pattern misfortune, unrelenting, just as much.

The thing that's sort of frustrating about this last decade since 2015 is that we really can't blame any subjective, or objectively poor winter performances entirely on CC - not that anyone is or has, just sayn'.    It's perhaps academic to say but sometimes it needs to be stated: there's winters available on this planet down to 40 N.

The acceleration of CC is very real, though.  Ultimately it will damn the future.  With 8 billion Industrial-advantaged oil-slaved inhabitants, that number's so large that if so many as 5% fail to abide by some sort of immediate remediation miracle... it doesn't matter how many trees the remaining 95% dry hump. The whole thing is untenable. In other words,  we're still fucked as a species. 

People don't realize that destiny won't be survivable, not without a lot of hardships and major set backs.   There is, maybe one hope at salvation.  The same innovation that got humanity to a state of actually being a geological force on this planet (the "Anthropocene" as some are trying to codify),  could win the race.  When we sold our collective soul to this Industrial ways and means ... we also committed to it as our savior.  Some rhetoric here but just saying that between carbon reclamation this, and plastic eating bacterium that and whatever "Humans will never fly" tech soon to emerge, puts us in a race between waking up from denial and complacency vs doom.

Digressing...sorry. shit. But, the global temperature has risen 1.1 C since 1880, with most of it occurring since 1975. At least according to Goddard/NASA... Now, that does not include the global heat burst early in 2023 ...one which did not "settle back"  The lurch stayed. That might push the decimal of that value a little. Not sure how much. Either way, not enough emphasis is put on the acceleration aspect.  Very dangerous.  The future can not be extrapolated using a linear inference ...unless we're fucking morons.

I do think some of the unusual pattern behaviors can be attributable. The oddities have sort off served us "bad luck"  

 

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29 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

  The future can not be extrapolated using a linear inference ...unless we're fucking morons.

 

IMHO this is the key, the human brain hasn’t evolved to properly understand the risks of exponential relationships. Our brains just don’t compute it, at a population level. It’s how you get the Covid fiasco, people blowing their funds up on the yen carry etc etc…

there’s an interview question about a pond with invasive vines that choke out all life. The pond is basically clear now but the vines double everyday and will choke the pond in 8 days if they’re not cleared. On what day must the pond be cleared to avoid catastrophe?

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42 minutes ago, Supernovice said:

IMHO this is the key, the human brain hasn’t evolved to properly understand the risks of exponential relationships. Our brains just don’t compute it, at a population level. It’s how you get the Covid fiasco, people blowing their funds up on the yen carry etc etc…

there’s an interview question about a pond with invasive vines that choke out all life. The pond is basically clear now but the vines double everyday and will choke the pond in 8 days if they’re not cleared. On what day must the pond be cleared to avoid catastrophe?

You'd have to know what the exponential value is to be precise.   Than you can take the root ( determine )... like, maybe if it's the exponential increase goes by the square, than you take the square root of 8. 

something like day 2.8 or so.  that point in time should stop the momentum.   seems intuitive.  heh, at least you're not giving the interviewer dead air, gaped mouth and vacant stair for an answer

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