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August "Ughust" 2024 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Move 20 miles to your east over here…we’ve had a little better run with 18+ the last 20 years or so. 
 

This year perhaps Luke. Keep the faith. 

I think your last 18+ was Nemo? Luke is talking about post 10-11 overall.

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2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

He wasn’t here for ‘13(Nemo?)…that was very close to 18X2…a real doozy.   We’ve been real close with 16-17 a few times too since. 

I think he said he missed that, yes. Yeah several 12-18 events. 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I think he said he missed that, yes. Yeah several 12-18 events. 

Yes sir.  That’s as bad as Jerry missing ‘78.  Those two are all timers.  I’m fortunate to remember ‘78..I was a 4th grader and 5 weeks from being 10 yrs old. So the memory is a fabulous one. 

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Meh, doesn't move the needle for me. Aside from yesterday in SW CT, what a Limp Bizkit pattern it's been and will continue to be.

It’s been limp is right…but the fact that nobody saw this coming yesterday here,(and I only got 5-6” here..which is still a lot), is a testament that things can and do sneak up still.  

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Every single time it rains now, lol.  The latest WPC Heavy Rain disco… always “above the 90th percentile” and “flash flooding possible”.

Areas affected...eastern Upstate New York, western New England

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191637Z - 192230Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage across Upstate New York and western New England this afternoon ahead of a cold front. Short term training of 1-2+"/hr rates will create corridors of 1-3" of rain with locally higher amounts. This could produce flash flooding.

<snip>

Some of this TCu is starting to exhibit glaciation as noted in the GOES-E day cloud phase RGB, resulting in a steady expansion of lightning cast probabilities above 25%. The 12Z U/A soundings from KALB and KOKX both measured PWs above the 90th percentile according to the SPC sounding climatology, with elevated freezing levels supporting efficient warm-rain processes. Into these impressive thermodynamics, forcing for ascent is slowly intensifying through convergence ahead of the cold front, increasing upper diffluence, and height falls downstream of the parent longwave trough and accompanying shortwave impulse. 
 

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Low 60s for highs here the next two days. We’ve had trouble getting that cold at night. 

Sun making its occasional appearance, driving temp to low 70s after 4 days topping out between 67 and 71.  TD mid-upper 60s, feels stuffy as we'd had 2 weeks of lower dews.

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1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

He wasn’t here for ‘13(Nemo?)…that was very close to 18X2…a real doozy.   We’ve been real close with 16-17 a few times too since. 

I was not but I still count it as if I was lol just from an area standpoint. But yea, since 2011 which includes October, we’ve had good but not those great/upper echelon with several busts and letdowns. 
 

We do storms and floods really well though. Yesterday was surreal and though our house is situated in a good spot one weenie may want more…I still wouldn’t want to experience it again. Our friends may have to tear down their house and rebuild or move. It didn’t look like it was salvageable. Their home’s propane tank is gone so is all their outdoor equipment including their grill which means the water was up to their second floor since they have a raised ranch where their deck is two steps down from the kitchen on the second floor. Crazy.

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2 hours ago, ForestHillWx said:

The overdevelopment of many areas is going to exacerbate these types of events, just my humble opinion. The lack of farmlands/woods to absorb most, not all, will have downstream implications (pun intended).

Down here in NJ, the amount of townhome/condo complexs being built in traditional farmlands areas is staggering. With the skyrocketing property values, there’s little incentive to hold onto farmlands, hence continued development. 

A lot of it is mandated, so it just isn't about selling farmland.  Some towns like mine fought it for 40 years, but then got too expensive to keep fighting the mandates because builders were able to sue.  It has something to do with some law that was passed in the 1970s

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