WxWatcher007 Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 44 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well I think it's more about being bad luck ground zone due to warm season low tracks. I think that is just luck driven. However, warmer waters will help enhance the threat by providing the fuel. I think our human-centric way of viewing the world fundamentally warps how many people see wx. Yeah you have folks whose common retort is “Mother Nature will do what it does” but we know that in most instances we can figure it out early along with the why. There are people who expect we nail how much snow at what time down to the inch. But, there are times where it’s just a confluence of events that lead to catastrophe. Sometimes there isn’t much other than luck or fate or whatever people want to call it that determines if a tornado hits one house and skips another, or my street gets 13” of powder while the next town over is at 9”, or the most intense training from a mesolow sits over one area vs another. We know a lot to be sure, but there’s more mesoscale unpredictability than a lot of folks would like to admit. 34 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I saw one of the two individuals who were swept away by the flood waters in Oxford was found dead I can't even imagine being caught in a situation where that occurs. The panic that must set in, I mean WTF do you do? I can’t claim to have been in a personally life threatening flash flood event, but my chases have brought me damn close and flash floods can really happen in an instant. Sometimes there’s no way out. The same for any crisis though is to keep calm and try to think of escape routes. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 The NAM develops a slug of heavy rain/thunder during the pre-dawn hours tomorrow and moves it northeast. One of the only models showing this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 Just shy of the all time 24 hour record apparently. https://x.com/ryanhanrahan/status/1825508728604381274?s=46 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstoned Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 There seems to have been another of our "normal cyclic" drowning events yesterday and overnight in Long Island and Connecticut. Trouble is, the "cycle" seems to be stuck on wash. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 I wonder if these events are likely to be more common if that will get most folks a shot at something like this over the next couple decades. Also that part of CT was ground zero in more than a few of the bigger snow events back in the 2000-2018 period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 The overdevelopment of many areas is going to exacerbate these types of events, just my humble opinion. The lack of farmlands/woods to absorb most, not all, will have downstream implications (pun intended). Down here in NJ, the amount of townhome/condo complexs being built in traditional farmlands areas is staggering. With the skyrocketing property values, there’s little incentive to hold onto farmlands, hence continued development. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 1 minute ago, ForestHillWx said: The overdevelopment of many areas is going to exacerbate these types of events, just my humble opinion. The lack of farmlands/woods to absorb most, not all, will have downstream implications (pun intended). Down here in NJ, the amount of townhome/condo complexs being built in traditional farmlands areas is staggering. With the skyrocketing property values, there’s little incentive to hold onto farmlands, hence continued development. Agreed, this is going to be/already is a huge factor in some of these events. Just think of how much coastal Connecticut and Long Island have been built up since Bob and who knows how some of those building codes are. I know the buildings that were destroyed in Sandy/Irene and re-built were required to be built with those stilts but coastal Connecticut and Long Island is a catastrophe waiting to happen. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 4 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 The first pic are what used to be tennis courts. The parking lot is about 25yds away to the left so the suv was swept away pretty good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 Man what a mess. Luke living in the center of meteorological violence in SNE with Tors and flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 Just now, CoastalWx said: Man what a mess. Luke living in the center of meteorological violence in SNE with Tors and flooding. Everything but 18+ snowers… 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: I'm not sure if Ernesto had any effect since it was so far east. This was a juicy atmosphere ahead of a trough. Only this time you had a stalled WF with a weak low helping to focus moisture in a narrow area. This is where I'm at as well. I don't think Ernesto had much to do with this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Everything but 18+ snowers… I'll pull for you on that one. Lets do it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 A few more from the Cannondale MNR station, photo credit to Tiffany Shelton: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 Definitely a taste of Autumn in the air this week. Hate to admit, and frankly makes me sad...but first shot across the bow. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Man what a mess. Luke living in the center of meteorological violence in SNE with Tors and flooding. Thats a very damaging area . Just not as much snow as desired Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 7 minutes ago, NittanyWx said: Wilton HS/YMCA: Jan 2024? Grass as green then as it is now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Definitely a taste of Autumn in the air this week. Hate to admit, and frankly makes me sad...but first shot across the bow. Talk about the ensuing torch coming . Wednesdays cool shot shall quickly pass 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Talk about the ensuing torch coming . Wednesdays cool shot shall quickly pass It will get warm, but nothing unprecedented or anything. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 23 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Everything but 18+ snowers… I really hope we can get a good winter around here soon. 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Definitely a taste of Autumn in the air this week. Hate to admit, and frankly makes me sad...but first shot across the bow. It feels like the usual time annually, but I feel the same way. The loss of daylight is particularly sad. That said, football, peak tropical, and a change of season is always exciting for me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: I really hope we can get a good winter around here soon. It feels like the usual time annually, but I feel the same way. The loss of daylight is particularly sad. That said, football, peak tropical, and a change of season is always exciting for me. Yeah agree. Last few summers have been great and lots of memories with Fam and friends. I'm beginning to dread heading into the cold season which is a new feeling for me, exacerbated by last two winters. I can't do 6 months of autumn anymore. I just can't. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah agree. Last few summers have been great and lots of memories with Fam and friends. I'm beginning to dread heading into the cold season which is a new feeling for me, exacerbated by last two winters. I can't do 6 months of autumn anymore. I just can't. I don’t know what I would’ve done if that one fluke storm didn’t hit my area. It’s the greatest snow surprise of my life. I woke up that morning expecting nothing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 46 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s staggering how many scenes like this we’ve seen as a region the past couple warm seasons. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 2 hours ago, tamarack said: As predicted by CC models, many places are getting frequent huge rain events. The Sandy River has 95 years of flow records, and both #2 and #5 came last year - April 1987 still is tops. And the 6/29/23 localized toad-strangler wrecked many miles of roads in southern Franklin County when 4-6" fell in <2 hours. The 3 wettest December days here were 18/23, 23/22 and 25/20. Five of our 12 wettest days came 2020 thru 2023, compared to 7 in our first 22 years here. (So far, "wettest" day in 2024 is 2.18" on Jan 10, 9" snow followed by lots of RA, only time in 26 winters we had to have our driveway plowed - snowblower would clog every 4-5 feet. Still time for a biggie this year.) Uh oh. Better be careful, he lurks. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 58 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said: The overdevelopment of many areas is going to exacerbate these types of events, just my humble opinion. The lack of farmlands/woods to absorb most, not all, will have downstream implications (pun intended). Down here in NJ, the amount of townhome/condo complexs being built in traditional farmlands areas is staggering. With the skyrocketing property values, there’s little incentive to hold onto farmlands, hence continued development. Even some of the fertile farmlands southwest from the pine barrens are growing McMansions (for millionaires) instead of tomatoes and peaches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 Low 60s for highs here the next two days. We’ve had trouble getting that cold at night. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 8 minutes ago, powderfreak said: It’s staggering how many scenes like this we’ve seen as a region the past couple warm seasons. All from slow moving/training rains too. Mind boggling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 40 minutes ago, NittanyWx said: Wilton HS/YMCA: That’s from January lol…look at the trees…no leaves. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 18 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I don’t know what I would’ve done if that one fluke storm didn’t hit my area. It’s the greatest snow surprise of my life. I woke up that morning expecting nothing. A bigger slap in the face for me was the Cape getting 6-8" of paste in that, while we had maybe 1.5" of slop. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 54 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Everything but 18+ snowers… Move 20 miles to your east over here…we’ve had a little better run with 18+ the last 20 years or so. This year perhaps Luke. Keep the faith. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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