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August "Ughust" 2024 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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44 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well I think it's more about being bad luck ground zone due to warm season low tracks. I think that is just luck driven.  However, warmer waters will help enhance the threat by providing the fuel. 

I think our human-centric way of viewing the world fundamentally warps how many people see wx. Yeah you have folks whose common retort is “Mother Nature will do what it does” but we know that in most instances we can figure it out early along with the why. There are people who expect we nail how much snow at what time down to the inch. 

But, there are times where it’s just a confluence of events that lead to catastrophe. Sometimes there isn’t much other than luck or fate or whatever people want to call it that determines if a tornado hits one house and skips another, or my street gets 13” of powder while the next town over is at 9”, or the most intense training from a mesolow sits over one area vs another. 

We know a lot to be sure, but there’s more mesoscale unpredictability than a lot of folks would like to admit. 

34 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I saw one of the two individuals who were swept away by the flood waters in Oxford was found dead :( 

I can't even imagine being caught in a situation where that occurs. The panic that must set in, I mean WTF do you do?

I can’t claim to have been in a personally life threatening flash flood event, but my chases have brought me damn close and flash floods can really happen in an instant. Sometimes there’s no way out. The same for any crisis though is to keep calm and try to think of escape routes. 

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The overdevelopment of many areas is going to exacerbate these types of events, just my humble opinion. The lack of farmlands/woods to absorb most, not all, will have downstream implications (pun intended).

Down here in NJ, the amount of townhome/condo complexs being built in traditional farmlands areas is staggering. With the skyrocketing property values, there’s little incentive to hold onto farmlands, hence continued development. 

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1 minute ago, ForestHillWx said:

The overdevelopment of many areas is going to exacerbate these types of events, just my humble opinion. The lack of farmlands/woods to absorb most, not all, will have downstream implications (pun intended).

Down here in NJ, the amount of townhome/condo complexs being built in traditional farmlands areas is staggering. With the skyrocketing property values, there’s little incentive to hold onto farmlands, hence continued development. 

Agreed, this is going to be/already is a huge factor in some of these events. 

Just think of how much coastal Connecticut and Long Island have been built up since Bob and who knows how some of those building codes are. I know the buildings that were destroyed in Sandy/Irene and re-built were required to be built with those stilts but coastal Connecticut and Long Island is a catastrophe waiting to happen. 

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm not sure if Ernesto had any effect since it was so far east. This was a juicy atmosphere ahead of a trough. Only this time you had a stalled WF with a weak low helping to focus moisture in a narrow area. 

This is where I'm at as well.  I don't think Ernesto had much to do with this.

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23 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Everything but 18+ snowers…

I really hope we can get a good winter around here soon. 

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Definitely a taste of Autumn in the air this week. Hate to admit, and frankly makes me sad...but first shot across the bow. 

It feels like the usual time annually, but I feel the same way. The loss of daylight is particularly sad. 

That said, football, peak tropical, and a change of season is always exciting for me. 

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

I really hope we can get a good winter around here soon. 

It feels like the usual time annually, but I feel the same way. The loss of daylight is particularly sad. 

That said, football, peak tropical, and a change of season is always exciting for me. 

Yeah agree. Last few summers have been great and lots of memories with Fam and friends. I'm beginning to dread heading into the cold season which is a new feeling for me, exacerbated by last two winters. I can't do 6 months of autumn anymore. I just can't.

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah agree. Last few summers have been great and lots of memories with Fam and friends. I'm beginning to dread heading into the cold season which is a new feeling for me, exacerbated by last two winters. I can't do 6 months of autumn anymore. I just can't.

I don’t know what I would’ve done if that one fluke storm didn’t hit my area. It’s the greatest snow surprise of my life. I woke up that morning expecting nothing. 

WuPmxk1.jpg

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2 hours ago, tamarack said:

As predicted by CC models, many places are getting frequent huge rain events.  The Sandy River has 95 years of flow records, and both #2 and #5 came last year - April 1987 still is tops.  And the 6/29/23 localized toad-strangler wrecked many miles of roads in southern Franklin County when 4-6" fell in <2 hours.  The 3 wettest December days here were 18/23, 23/22 and 25/20.  Five of our 12 wettest days came 2020 thru 2023, compared to 7 in our first 22 years here.  (So far, "wettest" day in 2024 is 2.18" on Jan 10, 9" snow followed by lots of RA, only time in 26 winters we had to have our driveway plowed - snowblower would clog every 4-5 feet.  Still time for a biggie this year.)

Uh oh. Better be careful, he lurks. 
image.jpeg.77a57ddb9f6f1cea905f22ff2a599128.jpeg

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58 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

The overdevelopment of many areas is going to exacerbate these types of events, just my humble opinion. The lack of farmlands/woods to absorb most, not all, will have downstream implications (pun intended).

Down here in NJ, the amount of townhome/condo complexs being built in traditional farmlands areas is staggering. With the skyrocketing property values, there’s little incentive to hold onto farmlands, hence continued development. 

Even some of the fertile farmlands southwest from the pine barrens are growing McMansions (for millionaires) instead of tomatoes and peaches.  :fulltilt:

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18 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I don’t know what I would’ve done if that one fluke storm didn’t hit my area. It’s the greatest snow surprise of my life. I woke up that morning expecting nothing. 

WuPmxk1.jpg

A bigger slap in the face for me was the Cape getting 6-8" of paste in that, while we had maybe 1.5" of slop. 

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