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August "Ughust" 2024 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not that the LI Sound was any kind of paragon of angel tear water purity to begin with, but I wonder if there’ll be a measurable pollution spike from the effluvium this thing’s about to deliver it. Think of all that “fresh” humanity rushing into the sea there. From microplastics to blown out sewage cisterns … spiced with homeless corpses, may as well be  a Fukushima discharge 

There will be a pollution spike from all of the toxic materials that have been water transported from one town to another in CT.

That was a big concern in Vermont the past two summers.

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18 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

There will be a pollution spike from all of the toxic materials that have been water transported from one town to another in CT.

That was a big concern in Vermont the past two summers.

We saw it here… flooding washes so much stuff out into the waterways.  Oil, gas, septic, trash.  Flood waters are gnarly when they impact highly inhabited places.

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23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Heaviest though may follow instability axis over the south. I could see that. Still moderate rains even briefly heavy aren’t good.

You think we might get a good soaking later along the south shore? I’m internally debating whether to give the ol doggie her anxiety meds to calm her down with the storms approaching. Any time we get even a little rain she just goes insane.

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2 minutes ago, Patrick-02540 said:

6.14" for the day.  Amazing how pathetic that feels when you're up against 16" a few towns over.  The same with snow in winter. 

You only exceeded your forecast this morning from the NWS(which was .25-.5 by literally 12-24 times the forecasted amount.  That’s an absolutely incredible Bust. 
 

The area that got 16” exceeded their forecast by  32-64 times the forecasted amounts by the NWS. Absolutely Mind boggling busts. 

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3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

You only exceeded your forecast this morning from the NWS(which was .25-.5 by literally 12-24 times the forecasted amount.  That’s an absolutely incredible Bust. 
 

The area that got 16” exceeded their forecast by  32-64 times the forecasted amounts by the NWS. Absolutely Mind boggling busts. 

Or forecast of 12" of snow and we end up with 768"

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10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

You only exceeded your forecast this morning from the NWS(which was .25-.5 by literally 12-24 times the forecasted amount.  That’s an absolutely incredible Bust. 
 

The area that got 16” exceeded their forecast by  32-64 times the forecasted amounts by the NWS. Absolutely Mind boggling busts. 

It’s going to keep happening too.  As long as high PWAT humid air continues to funnel into the NE with higher regularity.  A frontal boundary causing stalled convergence is all that is needed in high moisture-rich environments.

Getting 6-8”+ in county zones, with acute waterboarding footprints… this is certainly within the realm of possibilities.  The margin for error increases rapidly the higher the moisture levels.

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17 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

anyone noticed that 'busts' lately are GInormous ... ?     That's new.  

Used to be a forecast for 2-4" of snow ended up 8 to 10"    Impressive enough.    In 1997 1-3" of slop not only busted clear to 20", it did so with temperatures well below and too cold be qualified anywhere close slop.   It was 26F in Acton and we got 16" ... 21" up here along Rt 2 from that.  But that "kind" of over the top excessive and unreasonable punishment scale of busting is seems to be getting more common.

Like Leomenster last year, or these freak shows in VT, or Brian getting 40" in 6 hours ins 2021 ( was that already 3 years ago!).   

The bust behaviors are beyond the pail ... like these Tsar Bomba events

 

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8 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

You only exceeded your forecast this morning from the NWS(which was .25-.5 by literally 12-24 times the forecasted amount.  That’s an absolutely incredible Bust. 
 

The area that got 16” exceeded their forecast by  32-64 times the forecasted amounts by the NWS. Absolutely Mind boggling busts. 

Those rainfall forecasts in the summer really shouldn’t be taken literally though. That’s like saying rainfall forecast was .25” but an isolated tstm went over and you get 3”. I get it was a bust on the wet side for many, but I wouldn’t view it as literally as you did there. Clearly that meso low was tough to model and the hrrr was the only model to really see any potential. Tough to base a forecast on something that was sort of an outlier. But it had the idea.

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8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Good  all tip.of the cap. Disaster

 

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya you called it early, good work. 

I thought hrrr did well at hinting it. That was my basis really lol. Amazing mesoscale event. 

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This was by far the worst flooding in at least 40 years along the west branch of the Saugatuck River.  Several homes were evacuated last night along the river itself in both Wilton and Westport.  As of my drive this morning, the water has crested and is receding.  However, water lines ranging from a foot to 3 foot seen on some of these houses.

 

This was a .1% probability of exceedance rain event along the Norwalk River, Housatonic River and Saugatuck.  Some photos from yesterday in Wilton and Westport, CT.  Please do not redistribute:

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11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Is it me or does that area of CT get prone to heavy rain events. I feel like several 4-7” events have occurred there over last 5 years. 

This is directly correlated to me moving there.

 

We had FFW events of 6-8" twice in 2018, 2020 during Isaias, another during Jan 2021.  However, none of those events had this level of extreme flooding along the rivers.  The rainfall rate with this one only matched 2018, only this event rained for longer.

 

PWS recorded 9.9" about 1500 feet off the Saugatuck West Branch in Wilton yday.

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8.05” yesterday with just 0.02” since midnight. 
 

Never did anyone in this area think as of 10-11am yesterday that a big rainer was possible. It wasn’t until I had over an inch around lunchtime did I bother to check what the heck was going on radar. I hope folks who really got destroyed never see this again in their lieftimes. Coc’s and droughts can come soon enough…

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