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August "Ughust" 2024 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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18 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Yeah.  I also thought Corgan’s singing wasn’t so great. That new guitarist was the shit. 
the wrestling thing was odd. 
 

Would love to see them on their own. 
Rancid was great.    Green Day impressed me.  

The wrestling thing was bizarre. Lot of stunned looks on people's faces.  I think those might have been Billy's kids. I guess he married some young girl. Don't they all...

 

 

 

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24 minutes ago, kdxken said:

The wrestling thing was bizarre. Lot of stunned looks on people's faces.  I think those might have been Billy's kids. I guess he married some young girl. Don't they all...

 

 

 

Yeah. They were his kids.  I found out today he owns NWA and has wrestlers at most shows.  
Regarding Fenway, I thought the sound and sightlines were good, but the concessions area was insanely bad. 
 

anyway, the rain continues. 

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Just a synoptic rainy evening up here.

Its chilly.  This isn’t a warm tropical rain.  Feels more cold season type stratiform rain in this initial burst.

In the upper 50s with steady rain.  Warm sector/theta-e blast should move through tomorrow, before cooler air returns over the weekend.

IMG_0458.gif.78f6dcada8e155a4715b5f6b7e9e5abc.gif

IMG_0459.jpeg.5a91afaf6f9d4523b2bf90aa92ff300f.jpeg

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Looks like a few good downpours are about to blow through. Any moisture coming up from the south is almost always a guaranteed insta-soaking around these parts, thanks to the dozens of swamps and rivers located nearby!

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https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=BTV&wwa=flood warning
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Burlington VT
305 AM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024

VTC005-009-019-023-091300-
/O.NEW.KBTV.FA.W.0038.240809T0705Z-240809T1300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Caledonia VT-Essex VT-Orleans VT-Washington VT-
305 AM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024

...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central and northeast Vermont, including the
  following counties, in central Vermont, Washington. In northeast
  Vermont, Caledonia, Essex and Orleans.

* WHEN...Until 900 AM EDT.

* IMPACTS...Flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying
  and flood-prone locations is imminent or occurring.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 304 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain falling
    across the region. Flooding is ongoing or expected to begin
    shortly in the warned area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain
    have fallen.
  - Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1.5 inches are possible
    in the warned area.
  - Some locations that will experience flooding include...
    Lyndon, St. Johnsbury, Wheelock, Sheffield, Stannard,
    Lyndonville Village, Sutton, Danville, Willoughby, Walden,
    Greensboro Bend, West Burke Village, Glover, Greensboro,
    Burke, Barton, Kirby, Westmore, Hardwick and Newark.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
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42 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Starting Sunday low dews as far as the weenie  can see. Let's go!

Couldn't draw it up any better. 

"Rapid improvement Saturday afternoon. We then enter into an extended spell ofpleasant midsummer weather with seasonable temperatures and low humidity levels starting Sunday into the middle of next week

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Nice writeup about severe potential today from BOX.  Last paragraph is especially helpful from a public awareness standpoint regarding warnings today.  Seems like having an actual "eye to the sky" is especially important today.

Severe Weather:

Not much has changed with the potential of severe weather. As we
mentioned, the environment this afternoon/evening is favorable for
short-lived tornadoes as remnants of Debby track to the west of New
England. These situations often feature very high shear in lowest
levels and low LCLs (cloud bases) but in order to support tornado
formation we need instability in lowest levels (0-3km CAPE) and
either surface boundary or mesolow to focus low level spin.

In this case, we`re seeing several favorable signals in model
guidance, especially for western thirds of MA/CT. First, there is
sufficient 0-3km CAPE (over 200 J/kg) as warm front lifts through
during late afternoon and early evening. Local CSTAR research has
shown that we only need to see values of 25-75 J/kg in tropical
remnant environments so that should easily be attainable. Second,
environment itself favors high amounts of shear in lowest levels and
in this case we have over 200 m2s2 of 0-1km shear, much of which is
focused in 0-500m layer. Research has also shown the 0-500m layer
can be a good discriminator for tornadoes vs non tornado
environments (values of 95 or higher). Lastly, LCL heights are down
to 500m which is below the typical height of about 700m.

While these factors line up very well and have support from SREF
Tornado Ingredients, it`s not always a lock in these situations.
Certainly we`ll be on the eastern edge of more favorable area
(region closer to the actual remnant low itself). But we have to
watch its warm front extending eastward as well as possibility of
mesolow formation along boundary to help enhance spinup. It`s also
possible to have all of this occur without any lightning.

It`s important to stress that these types of circulations, while
potentially supportive of tornadoes, tend to be very shallow in
nature and do not last very long. Radar detection can be difficult
especially at farther distances from the radar. These situations are
usually handled by issuing Severe Thunderstorm Warnings with the
"Tornado Possible" tag since it is difficult to track these
transient couplets. However, any longer-lived couplets that do
manage to form can be handled with Tornado Warnings.

 

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30 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

should be some impressive sensible differences coming in here today with this warm front poised to surge through

 

image.thumb.png.12b661ab24c5bc642fd3565267a694b8.png

Swampazz is coming. For a little while anyway. 
image.gif

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Next week is basically a rotting cool airmass that moderates from seasonable to slightly AN from early to late week. We’ll still get some heat and dews, but I think the prolonged deepest of deep summer weather may be behind us. 

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Next week is basically a rotting cool airmass that moderates from seasonable to slightly AN from early to late week. We’ll still get some heat and dews, but I think the prolonged deepest of deep summer weather may be behind us. 

Ya summers back has been broken... Deep summer she's gone.. Seem's like 75-85 next 2 weeks with the occassional moderately humid day.. 

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9 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya summers back has been broken... Deep summer she's gone.. Seem's like 75-85 next 2 weeks with the occassional moderately humid day.. 

Seasons in seasons. About 1/3 of the way through August, the climo step down is gradually accelerating, and soon the dog days will turn into school days lol.

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20 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya summers back has been broken... Deep summer she's gone.. Seem's like 75-85 next 2 weeks with the occassional moderately humid day.. 

You hate summer and dews so much you are blinded . Summer doesn’t end on Aug 9 in a very warm to hot North America. Canada is furnaced next week and beyond. . There is a lot of heat and dews to go. Well into Septorcher 

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