Torch Tiger Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 Since no one else started it, let's go! The final full month of summer before we step down to 5?ish months of autumn. How high will the dews be? Will we see our coveted hurricane LF? TBD 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 Should have titled it Augdewst and big uns 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 31 Author Share Posted July 31 get after that southern style heat Make 'em say ugh ugh nah nah, nah nah 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 GFS promptly comes in aggressive with the Mon/Tue cold front 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 31 Author Share Posted July 31 i'm down to rip right into "autumn". 6 months of it is weird but ok 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 22 minutes ago, dendrite said: GFS promptly comes in aggressive with the Mon/Tue cold front Sell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Should have titled it Augdewst and big uns Dewgust 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 Lets go: 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 12 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Should have titled it Augdewst and big uns How about "Awe-gust" or Ahh-gust"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 Happy August 1! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 69.1° this morn. The next 2 days will be pretty torchy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 GGEM would’ve been interesting if it was October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 Just reminding ... as the product header indicates, those CPC day 6-10 and day 8 to 14 temperature probabilities are only for the direction of the departure, plus or minus. Says nothing about how far For example, suppose there is a 90% chance of above normal ( huge value on that chart ...) over some region, and that region ended up .0001 on the plus side, vs another region that is just 30% ( modest value on that chart ...) and that region came in +5 ... 90% was not wrong. just sayn' 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 Definitely some cold front potential at times this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 30 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Just reminding ... as the product header indicates, those CPC day 6-10 and day 8 to 14 temperature probabilities are only for the direction of the departure, plus or minus. Says nothing about how far For example, suppose there is a 90% chance of above normal ( huge value on that chart ...) over some region, and that region ended up .0001 on the plus side, vs another region that is just 30% ( modest value on that chart ...) and that region came in +5 ... 90% was not wrong. just sayn' It’s also about a 40% chance of BN here which leaves a 60% chance of normal or above. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Definitely some cold front potential at times this month. I'm sure Kev will continue lathering himself up in dews most of the month, but no denying solar max ends after next week....and southern Hemisphere hineys start to simmer in cars. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 36 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Just reminding ... as the product header indicates, those CPC day 6-10 and day 8 to 14 temperature probabilities are only for the direction of the departure, plus or minus. Says nothing about how far For example, suppose there is a 90% chance of above normal ( huge value on that chart ...) over some region, and that region ended up .0001 on the plus side, vs another region that is just 30% ( modest value on that chart ...) and that region came in +5 ... 90% was not wrong. just sayn' Yea....60% chance of .0000000000001 negative departure and 40% chance of +5.000000000000000000001 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 I wonder if the water cooler conversations down at NCEP ... CPC ..etc, ever include topic surrounding any kind of awareness that all model products, from ensemble derivatives to straight up operational version depictions, appear to be overly amplified by a variable percentage ( but always over the top ) in the D6 -14 range. Or are they like these MLB nerds ( also ruining baseball - ) heh slaved to the conclusions that spit out of statistical algorithms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm sure Kev will continue lathering himself up in dews most of the month, but no denying solar max ends after next week....and southern Hemisphere hineys start to simmer in cars. Makes me sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Makes me sad. Tempered elation in Methuen...or Metheun, as some of us say.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 The leaves are getting that leathery look. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 49 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Just reminding ... as the product header indicates, those CPC day 6-10 and day 8 to 14 temperature probabilities are only for the direction of the departure, plus or minus. Says nothing about how far For example, suppose there is a 90% chance of above normal ( huge value on that chart ...) over some region, and that region ended up .0001 on the plus side, vs another region that is just 30% ( modest value on that chart ...) and that region came in +5 ... 90% was not wrong. just sayn' Would you stop with the math stuff? We don't use that junk around here... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: The leaves are getting that leathery look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 It'll be interesting to see what happens in this Aug 7 to 15th time span with temperatures. Just using experience with the amp bias, and applying it to the various depictions, it seems an ~ 15 to 20% normalization off that crazed higher latitude meridian flow anomaly likely limits the actual "cool" value to whatever gets delivered. Another aspect I am noticing about that whole period of time is that the spatial layout of the amplifying pattern is situated above the 40th parallel. Pretty strong operational coherency for the expansion of the Hadley cell summer. If we shave 15% off the model amplitude, and consider that N bias in the termination of the westerlies, that also tends to mitigate cooling some. I dunno... it seems in an era when we are either always AN, or ... finding least excuse imagined to make a BN outlook more average, maybe we can start to identify how and why-for the error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: My breasts are getting that leathery look. Less sun and more weights? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It'll be interesting to see what happens in this Aug 7 to 15th time span with temperatures. Just using experience with the amp bias, and applying it to the various depictions, it seems an ~ 15 to 20% normalization off that crazed higher latitude meridian flow anomaly likely limits the actual "cool" value to whatever gets delivered. Another aspect I am noticing about that whole period of time is that the spatial layout of the amplifying pattern is situated above the 40th parallel. Pretty strong operational coherency for the expansion of the Hadley cell summer. If we shave 15% off the model amplitude, and consider that N bias in the termination of the westerlies, that also tends to mitigate cooling some. I dunno... it seems in an era when we are either always AN, or ... finding least excuse imagined to make a BN outlook more average, maybe we can start to identify how and why-for the error. I think its a combination of CC and the peak of both a multi decadal Pacific cold phase pattern/+AMO. My guess is about 30%CC/70% the latter attribution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Only takes me 2.5 minutes to start burning instead of 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 I wouldn't be shocked if there was an earlier onset of some color among various species. I few years ago ...I wanna say 2019, but it may have 2021 ... some of the maples around this region of Rt 2 in SNE appeared to go 3 weeks early. I noticed also, these color changes were abnormal. I'm just excruciating enough to remember particular trees' color hues. You know? this one is tends to saffron. This guy's yellow... This one's red... etc... These were all flushing yellow or biasing more yellow than normal. I thought maybe smoke had something to do with it ... but, I read a paper ( which I've lost ref too - ) that suggested not only was this noticed in general, they cited overly proficient growth factoring was the cause. Basically, it takes a certain amount of carbon-based chemistries, plus energy in some sort of ratio in order to succeed both growth and then sustaining the different yellow, red and green colors. Once that is used up, those breaks down - I'm butchering this, no doubt - and drains back from the leafs exposing those that require less to maintain.... We also had a blight couple of years in there, where not only did this yellowing occur early, but there were those shit stains all over them. But that's the warm steamy back of rancid sack DP thing and a different issue. Anyway, this year's warmth overall and much more abundant sun, and a wet spring... etc... this seems like a candidate year to test that idea above. Granted some are dry in the back yards coming down the stretch here but at a larger regional scope the U.S. drought survey isn't too impressed with any status of dry this season. They do target Brian though ...which is interesting haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 22 minutes ago, dendrite said: The leaves are getting that leathery look. Stein does that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now