August 2024 General Discussion

[Chambana]

93/79/109 in the paign. Steamy 

[beavis1729]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

There was literally a historic heatwave ongoing at this exact time in 1953. It lasted 11 days. If that heatwave were to happen today EXACTLY the same, I cannot imagine this extremism of posts we would see.

Also, how is heat and humidity highly unusual in August? . Many times August is the hottest month of the summer.

 

 

I think people are getting caught up on the semantics of the word "historical".  To me, historical doesn't mean the same as unprecedented. Yes, it has been hot this time of year in the past, and yes it has hit 100 in Sept before. But normal highs are near 80 this time of year, so the 96 & 99 highs at ORD yesterday & today respectively (combined with very high humidity, dews mid-upper 70s) are an extremely unusual occurrence in late August. Why is this controversial?

It's just like in winter, when people use basic high-level numbers to judge how good a month or season is. There is much more to it than that. For example, if January has 10" of snow but with snow cover all month due to cold temps, it's definitely more wintry than a January with 15" of snow with constant thaws.  The point is that total snowfall doesn't tell the whole story of a winter. Same idea in summer - the past 2 days at ORD had extremely high humidity with very high overnight mins. This is much worse from a historical/impact perspective than a 102/65 max/min with dews around 60.  In other words, high temps alone don't tell the whole story.

The Climate Changer is correct that things have been warming up recently, especially in UHI areas. Of course, this is in general...not necessarily every single year. And, of course, we can't attribute individual heat waves to this. But people have a right to worry about more heat waves, especially if you live in a city with worsening UHI and the public planning/actions aren't helping to mitigate UHI (much less acknowledge that it's a problem to begin with). I guess we have know-it-alls on this forum who go against all of the established science. For what purpose - to stir up drama? Why? Recent warming is common knowledge, even if it's not 100% man-made. Pointing this out shouldn't be controversial. Look at the average temps at ORD as an example; they've increased 3-4 F over the past 40 years in winter, and 2-3F in the other seasons. That's a very big deal. Heck, even a 1F change would be a big deal over 40 years, which is a speck of time in the grand scheme of things. It's even worse in the arctic. Perhaps The Climate Changer and others get frustrated sometimes because no one (meaning "global society") seems to acknowledge it, or care, or do anything about it. It's the same idea as a person who works tirelessly to advocate for affordable housing and other policies to help the homeless...but nothing ever gets better because not enough people in important/influential positions care.

Whether it's UHI worsening, higher nighttime mins (not as much daytime maxes), more impact in the winter vs. summer, or a combination of all of these...it's definitely happening. Personally, I'm putting my hope on a reversing AMO to slow or even reverse the warming a bit...which will be great if it happens. But even so, it's reasonable to take an approach of "I'll believe it when I see it".

There are going to be deaths from the current heat wave, especially in Chicago due to less access to AC and other reasons.  That in and of itself makes it a noteworthy and concerning (one could even say "historical") event, unless we don't care about people suffering.

None of these comments are meant to be alarmist; it's just the unfortunate reality. Why is it nonsense for The Climate Changer to point these things out? If people don't want to accept the factual/statistical info, you can put him on ignore.

[rainsucks]

45 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Outflowed

doesn't seem like it has reached ORD yet, but the temp has been hovering around 99 for a while now.

[Chicago Storm]

1 hour ago, rainsucks said:

wow, 99 at ORD now. 100 may actually happen after all.

it didn't.

[Chicago Storm]

30 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

I think people are getting caught up on the semantics of the word "historical".  To me, historical doesn't mean the same as unprecedented. Yes, it has been hot this time of year in the past, and yes it has hit 100 in Sept before. But normal highs are near 80 this time of year, so the 96 & 99 highs at ORD yesterday & today respectively (combined with very high humidity, dews mid-upper 70s) are an extremely unusual occurrence in late August. Why is this controversial?

It's just like in winter, when people use basic high-level numbers to judge how good a month or season is. There is much more to it than that. For example, if January has 10" of snow but with snow cover all month due to cold temps, it's definitely more wintry than a January with 15" of snow with constant thaws.  The point is that total snowfall doesn't tell the whole story of a winter. Same idea in summer - the past 2 days at ORD had extremely high humidity with very high overnight mins. This is much worse from a historical/impact perspective than a 102/65 max/min with dews around 60.  In other words, high temps alone don't tell the whole story.

The Climate Changer is correct that things have been warming up recently, especially in UHI areas. Of course, this is in general...not necessarily every single year. And, of course, we can't attribute individual heat waves to this. But people have a right to worry about more heat waves, especially if you live in a city with worsening UHI and the public planning/actions aren't helping to mitigate UHI (much less acknowledge that it's a problem to begin with). I guess we have know-it-alls on this forum who go against all of the established science. For what purpose - to stir up drama? Why? Recent warming is common knowledge, even if it's not 100% man-made. Pointing this out shouldn't be controversial. Look at the average temps at ORD as an example; they've increased 3-4 F over the past 40 years in winter, and 2-3F in the other seasons. That's a very big deal. Heck, even a 1F change would be a big deal over 40 years, which is a speck of time in the grand scheme of things. It's even worse in the arctic. Perhaps The Climate Changer and others get frustrated sometimes because no one (meaning "global society") seems to acknowledge it, or care, or do anything about it. It's the same idea as a person who works tirelessly to advocate for affordable housing and other policies to help the homeless...but nothing ever gets better because not enough people in important/influential positions care.

Whether it's UHI worsening, higher nighttime mins (not as much daytime maxes), more impact in the winter vs. summer, or a combination of all of these...it's definitely happening. Personally, I'm putting my hope on a reversing AMO to slow or even reverse the warming a bit...which will be great if it happens. But even so, it's reasonable to take an approach of "I'll believe it when I see it".

There are going to be deaths from the current heat wave, especially in Chicago due to less access to AC and other reasons.  That in and of itself makes it a noteworthy and concerning (one could even say "historical") event, unless we don't care about people suffering.

None of these comments are meant to be alarmist; it's just the unfortunate reality. Why is it nonsense for The Climate Changer to point these things out? If people don't want to accept the factual/statistical info, you can put him on ignore.

lol.

i didn't have a beavis summer rant in my card deck, but it lived up to the usual winter lol's.

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, rainsucks said:

the late Sept 2017 heat wave was just about as impressive IMO, at least in Chicago.

It was more impressive from a standpoint of being 3 weeks later, but id still say 1953 was more impressive in Chicago. At Detroit, its not even a contest. 1953 all the way.

Chicago 2017
09-20: 92/62
09-21: 94/72
09-22: 94/71
09-23: 95/72
09-24: 93/70
09-25: 92/67
09-26: 92/70

Chicago 1953
08-24: 90/63
08-25: 95/66
08-26: 97/68
08-27: 97/70
08-28: 97/69
08-29: 98/70
08-30: 96/71
08-31: 99/74
09-01: 101/76
09-02: 101/75
09-03: 97/75

***

Detroit 2017
09-21: 89/67
09-22: 89/68
09-23: 91/65
09-24: 89/66
09-25: 90/68
09-26: 93/68

Detroit 1953
08-25: 92/64
08-26: 96/71
08-27: 95/69
08-28: 96/67
08-29: 96/71
08-30: 97/71
08-31: 97/71
09-01: 98/70
09-02: 100/76
09-03: 100/71
09-04: 91/61

**************************************

September 2, 1953 was an insane day for time of year in this neck of the woods:

Detroit: 100/76
Alpena: 97/70
Cleveland: 101/73
Toledo: 100/72
Cincinnati: 102/72
Columbus: 100/68
Indianapolis: 100/67
Fort Wayne: 100/70
South Bend: 98/72
Peoria: 99/72
Chicago: 101/75
Moline: 99/71
Milwaukee: 96/74
Madison: 98/71

 

 

[michsnowfreak]

13 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

lol.

i didn't have a beavis summer rant in my card deck, but it lived up to the usual winter lol's.

He clearly is not aware of TCC's posting style lol.

[michsnowfreak]

49 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

I think people are getting caught up on the semantics of the word "historical".  To me, historical doesn't mean the same as unprecedented. Yes, it has been hot this time of year in the past, and yes it has hit 100 in Sept before. But normal highs are near 80 this time of year, so the 96 & 99 highs at ORD yesterday & today respectively (combined with very high humidity, dews mid-upper 70s) are an extremely unusual occurrence in late August. Why is this controversial?

It's just like in winter, when people use basic high-level numbers to judge how good a month or season is. There is much more to it than that. For example, if January has 10" of snow but with snow cover all month due to cold temps, it's definitely more wintry than a January with 15" of snow with constant thaws.  The point is that total snowfall doesn't tell the whole story of a winter. Same idea in summer - the past 2 days at ORD had extremely high humidity with very high overnight mins. This is much worse from a historical/impact perspective than a 102/65 max/min with dews around 60.  In other words, high temps alone don't tell the whole story.

The Climate Changer is correct that things have been warming up recently, especially in UHI areas. Of course, this is in general...not necessarily every single year. And, of course, we can't attribute individual heat waves to this. But people have a right to worry about more heat waves, especially if you live in a city with worsening UHI and the public planning/actions aren't helping to mitigate UHI (much less acknowledge that it's a problem to begin with). I guess we have know-it-alls on this forum who go against all of the established science. For what purpose - to stir up drama? Why? Recent warming is common knowledge, even if it's not 100% man-made. Pointing this out shouldn't be controversial. Look at the average temps at ORD as an example; they've increased 3-4 F over the past 40 years in winter, and 2-3F in the other seasons. That's a very big deal. Heck, even a 1F change would be a big deal over 40 years, which is a speck of time in the grand scheme of things. It's even worse in the arctic. Perhaps The Climate Changer and others get frustrated sometimes because no one (meaning "global society") seems to acknowledge it, or care, or do anything about it. It's the same idea as a person who works tirelessly to advocate for affordable housing and other policies to help the homeless...but nothing ever gets better because not enough people in important/influential positions care.

Whether it's UHI worsening, higher nighttime mins (not as much daytime maxes), more impact in the winter vs. summer, or a combination of all of these...it's definitely happening. Personally, I'm putting my hope on a reversing AMO to slow or even reverse the warming a bit...which will be great if it happens. But even so, it's reasonable to take an approach of "I'll believe it when I see it".

There are going to be deaths from the current heat wave, especially in Chicago due to less access to AC and other reasons.  That in and of itself makes it a noteworthy and concerning (one could even say "historical") event, unless we don't care about people suffering.

None of these comments are meant to be alarmist; it's just the unfortunate reality. Why is it nonsense for The Climate Changer to point these things out? If people don't want to accept the factual/statistical info, you can put him on ignore.

1970 is actually 54 years ago (I know thats what you meant when referencing Chicagos winter temps, because 1970 is THE gold standard for starting-point to overstate winter warming). When you look at period of record, Chicagos (1874-2024) avg winter temp has risen 0.3F, but their summer has risen 3.2F, although Chicago averages WAY LESS 90F+ days now than they did in the 1950s. Yes I am aware station location changes, something all stations face. And Im also aware of terrain, cement/dirt changes surrounding weather stations as well. Thats what happens when time doesnt stand still.

[rainsucks]

39 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

it didn't.

was pulling for an intrahour 100. oh well.

[roardog]

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

 

Also, how is heat and humidity highly unusual in August? . Many times August is the hottest month of the summer.

 

Detroits 20 hottest temps on/after 8/25:

 

 

Reminds me of the old days when the NWS zone forecast would say unseasonably cold on a cold January day or unseasonably warm on a hot July day. I would always think, if this isn't the season to be warm/cold what season is? lol

[cyclone77]

98 at both MLI and DVN, hit 97 here.  Dews made it back to 81 earlier here.

[A-L-E-K]

Boundaries doing things in my vicinity 

[Torchageddon]

Got a non-storm that just brought heavy rains, was put under svr warning for no reason as usual. Not even a clap of thud. Attempt #11 fail.

[Chinook]

What a random group of storms tonight. a much needed mess for some drought areas.

[Chicago Storm]

Topped out at 99° at both ORD and at MDW on Tuesday.

...2024 90°+ Day Tally...
21 - MDW
19 - ORD
17 - PWK
16 - RFD
16 - LOT
15 - DPA
15 - ARR
10 - UGN

[Chicago Storm]

A few record tied or broken during this recent period...

ORD had a low temperature of 74° on August 25th, which tied the record high min temp for the date of 74° (1959).

ORD had a low temperature of 79° on August 26th, which broke the record high min temp for the date of 77° (1973).

ORD had a high temperature of 99° on August 27th, which broke the record high max temp for the date of 97° (1937).

[beavis1729]

18 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

1970 is actually 54 years ago (I know thats what you meant when referencing Chicagos winter temps, because 1970 is THE gold standard for starting-point to overstate winter warming). When you look at period of record, Chicagos (1874-2024) avg winter temp has risen 0.3F, but their summer has risen 3.2F, although Chicago averages WAY LESS 90F+ days now than they did in the 1950s. Yes I am aware station location changes, something all stations face. And Im also aware of terrain, cement/dirt changes surrounding weather stations as well. Thats what happens when time doesnt stand still.

Even though you said you're aware of the station location changing, it's a huge factor in why the winter temp has only risen 0.3F over the past 150 years in Chicago. A station right on the lake is always meaningfully warmer in the winter in this neck of the woods, so it's not a fair comparison to ORD.

I find it funny that nearly 100% of the scientific community is concerned about the recent warming, and it's clear that the impact of UHI on temps (and exacerbating the impact of heat waves) is worsening...yet I'm the one who is out of line in my comments?  All I'm doing is summarizing the consensus and concerns. Of course temps have been warmer in Earth's history, but it's the rate of warming recently which has been shocking. Places in the arctic have warmed 5+ degrees over the past 100 years. The lower 48 hasn't warmed as much, but still a material change. How could one argue that this isn't something to be mindful of? As mentioned before, I actually do believe/hope the recent warming is somewhat driven by seasonal/decadal factors...but until we see how the next 10-20 years shake out, shouldn't we have a heightened level of concern? It's just solid proactive risk mitigation. I also happen to believe that we have a lot of other environmental issues on Earth which are much more concerning than climate change...but that's for another discussion.

I know you may not mean this...but some people on this board come across as not being worried at all, and even dismissive of anyone who simply voices the consensus. That's strange to me...but I suppose it's in line with the individualistic U.S. mindset/approach on all issues, i.e., "me, me, me...who cares about how things may impact anyone else."

Edit to add: here's a clear illustration of the worsening impact of UHI during heat waves. For August 26-27, the AM lows at ORD were 79, 78...compared to 72, 74 at RFD and 75, 75 at MLI.  The air mass was essentially the same in both places.  One could even argue it was more humid at MLI, yet even so the AM lows at ORD were 3-4F higher. Besides the obvious frustration about human/industrialization impacts on local climate, the lack of nighttime cooling has been documented as a significant concern re: modern heat waves in urban areas.  

[A-L-E-K]

might be time to move friend

[beavis1729]

4 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

might be time to move friend

I'm expressing societal concerns - it's not about me. 

[michsnowfreak]

This summer was mostly pleasant here. In fact it should have been way hotter than it was. La nina summers, especially summers that transition from nino to nina, are traditionally scorching hot, which I was bracing for. Simply didn't happen. @mississaugasnow I was close in my guess. DTW hit 95 yesterday, which ties as the hottest temp of the year.

[Powerball]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

This summer was mostly pleasant here. In fact it should have been way hotter than it was. La nina summers, especially summers that transition from nino to nina, are traditionally scorching hot, which I was bracing for. Simply didn't happen. @mississaugasnow I was close in my guess. DTW hit 95 yesterday, which ties as the hottest temp of the year.

 

Part of the reason for that, if we're getting technical, is because the actual Nina transition has failed to happen thus far. We're still officially in a neutral ENSO state as the transition has been much slower than originally predicted.

 

[michsnowfreak]

55 minutes ago, Powerball said:

 

Part of the reason for that, if we're getting technical, is because the actual Nina transition has failed to happen thus far. We're still officially in a neutral ENSO state as the transition has been much slower than originally predicted.

 

True but supposedly the atmosphere is behaving nina like.

[Brian D]

Briefly hit 70 around midday when the sun was out, then a mostly cloudy, breezy aftrn with a stiff lake wind. Looks like a good shot at shwrs/stms later tomorrow, then a couple warmer days as we head into the weekend. Point showing a rollercoaster of temps coming up, and that looks to be the norm in the coming weeks. 

[weatherbo]

Breezy autumn like day with low humidity and temps in the low 60's.  Will be a cool one tonight with mid 40's, some 30's likely in the cool spots.
Started weeding out some of the tired looking plants that don't receive enough sun anymore off the deck today and into the composter.  Sure sign fall is here.

[cyclone77]

Amazing how low 70 dews feel almost like Canadian air compared to the low 80s the past few days.  Definitely a huge difference in how that feels.

Picked up 0.57" last night/early this morning, and closing in on 3" for August.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

High of 76 today. Another near perfect late summer day in what has been the most pleasant summer I can remember in my 8 years living in Minneapolis. 

[buckeye]

On 8/27/2024 at 5:50 PM, michsnowfreak said:

It was more impressive from a standpoint of being 3 weeks later, but id still say 1953 was more impressive in Chicago. At Detroit, its not even a contest. 1953 all the way.

Chicago 2017
09-20: 92/62
09-21: 94/72
09-22: 94/71
09-23: 95/72
09-24: 93/70
09-25: 92/67
09-26: 92/70

Chicago 1953
08-24: 90/63
08-25: 95/66
08-26: 97/68
08-27: 97/70
08-28: 97/69
08-29: 98/70
08-30: 96/71
08-31: 99/74
09-01: 101/76
09-02: 101/75
09-03: 97/75

***

Detroit 2017
09-21: 89/67
09-22: 89/68
09-23: 91/65
09-24: 89/66
09-25: 90/68
09-26: 93/68

Detroit 1953
08-25: 92/64
08-26: 96/71
08-27: 95/69
08-28: 96/67
08-29: 96/71
08-30: 97/71
08-31: 97/71
09-01: 98/70
09-02: 100/76
09-03: 100/71
09-04: 91/61

**************************************

September 2, 1953 was an insane day for time of year in this neck of the woods:

Detroit: 100/76
Alpena: 97/70
Cleveland: 101/73
Toledo: 100/72
Cincinnati: 102/72
Columbus: 100/68
Indianapolis: 100/67
Fort Wayne: 100/70
South Bend: 98/72
Peoria: 99/72
Chicago: 101/75
Moline: 99/71
Milwaukee: 96/74
Madison: 98/71

 

 

Temperature-wise, I still think the most impressive run was Morch 2012, with Michigan having the most impressive departures.   Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't many places in central and northern MI have temps well into the 90's?   

[TheClimateChanger]

A small area of exceptional drought (D4) noted in Ohio and West Virginia for the first time in both states since the drought monitor began in its current form in 2000.

[buckeye]

32 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

A small area of exceptional drought (D4) noted in Ohio and West Virginia for the first time in both states since the drought monitor began in its current form in 2000.

drought begets droughts.....and that area is right over Hocking Hills and Wayne National Forest which is the foothills of the Appalachians.    We need a wholesale pattern shift or help from tropical systems or it's going to get ugly when the leaves start dropping.     Speaking of tropical systems.... wasn't this suppose to be an epic season?    Granted we still have a month and a half of prime season but I don't think anyone was expecting it to be this slow going into September. 

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, buckeye said:

Temperature-wise, I still think the most impressive run was Morch 2012, with Michigan having the most impressive departures.   Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't many places in central and northern MI have temps well into the 90's?   

March 2012 was obviously impressive, but I don’t recall any 90s in MI. The hottest temps in MI at the first order stations were: 86F at Detroit, 86F Flint, 87F Saginaw, 87F Alpena, 83F Sault Ste Marie, 85F Houghton Lake, 81F Marquette, 87F Grand Rapids, 86F Lansing, 82F Muskegon.

With that said, March 2012 gets talked about plenty (rightly so), but I dont feel Feb 2015 gets NEAR its due. We do talk about the snowy/harsh winters of the time, but rarely is Feb 2015 singled out for its brutal cold, whereas March 2012 is brought up everytime orange shows up on a model map after Feb 1st.

At DTW:

Mar 2012: Monthly departure: +13.5F. Highest daily departure: +31F
Feb 2015: Monthly departure: -13.9F. Highest daily departure: -29F (3 times).