SACRUS Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 Quiet on the Atlantic and Gulf front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 Ridge west - troughing into the east mainly cooler than normal Sep 3 - 7th as its progressing on the forecasts now. Late season summer in Scandinavia which had been otherwise having its coolest summer in many years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 Next 7 days - most or brunt of this will be Wed night into Thu and again Sat night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 1 hour ago, SACRUS said: Quiet on the Atlantic and Gulf front I wonder if this was due to the somewhat recent Saharan dust or the cold water pool in the tropical Atlantic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 21 minutes ago, Dark Star said: I wonder if this was due to the somewhat recent Saharan dust or the cold water pool in the tropical Atlantic? All this rain should stop the dust for a while. http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec10.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 14 minutes ago, Dark Star said: I wonder if this was due to the somewhat recent Saharan dust or the cold water pool in the tropical Atlantic? So far... From what I can see on EPS GEFS, NHC will probably have to start TWO sometime between F 9/1-Sun 9/3...based on the two ensemble pix provided. While early model speculation suggests recurve out to sea s of Hat next week, lots of room for change. By the way on Ernesto, I was tandem kayaking Frenchman Bay-Gulf of Maine Wed 8/21 in residual subsiding 3' swells. That Acadia NP vacation prevented me from looking things over carefully for a topic regarding the killer flood ( 7+" )near Southbury in sw CT last Sunday the 18th, when I was traveling up there for a 19 participant multisport. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 Stark contrast in Sussex County NJ... Count me in for 1.16" yesterday 250-7P in southern Wantage. Click attached for clarity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 1 hour ago, Dark Star said: I wonder if this was due to the somewhat recent Saharan dust or the cold water pool in the tropical Atlantic? The upper atmosphere warmed faster than the surface leading the record low lapse rates. So this August 20th to 31st is unusually quiet. Last year over the same period we had 6 named storms form. But the record SSTs around the Gulf are concerning since it will only take one wave to get in there and rapidly deepen. So it will be interesting to see how the rest of the season goes as we approach the peak. Hurricane seasons are mostly evaluated on land impacts which are largely unknown until we reach the peak later in the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 2 hours ago, bluewave said: The upper atmosphere warmed faster than the surface leading the record low lapse rates. So this August 20th to 31st is unusually quiet. Last year over the same period we had 6 named storms form. But the record SSTs around the Gulf are concerning since it will only take one wave to get in there and rapidly deepen. So it will be interesting to see how the rest of the season goes as we approach the peak. Hurricane seasons are mostly evaluated on land impacts which are largely unknown until we reach the peak later in the season. Is that the same mechanism by which the Saharan dust inhibits tropical storms? Warming aloft from absorbed solar radiation and modest cooling at the surface lowering the lapse rate and resulting in a more stable atmospheric profile? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 One of the biggest hailstorms of the season to my NE with the cold pool. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 congrats RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: One of the biggest hailstorms of the season to my NE with the cold pool. Severe watch up for eastern Suffolk. We’ll see what can survive across the Sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 53 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Severe watch up for eastern Suffolk. We’ll see what can survive across the Sound. Just got my first hail since moving up here. Mostly around .5. But a few larger ones looked closer to .75. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 The storms over CT and the Sound are pushing an outflow boundary back to the SW. This is igniting new storms over SW CT. Something to watch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 Excessive heat watch for parts of the area Wednesday. At least it's only one day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 Looks like a volcanic eruption over the sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 1 minute ago, Cfa said: Looks like volcanic eruption over the sound. Radar is insane. Big hailer south of Bridgeport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 The first half of the week will likely see above to occasionally much above normal readings. It is likely that Baltimore and Washington, DC could experience a heatwave. The temperature could even approach or reach 90° on Wednesday in New York City. A fresh shot of Canadian air will arrive late in the week to close out the month. Following the frontal passage, highs will reach the middle and upper 70s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around August 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the fall. The SOI was +22.09 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.220 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 92% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.0° (1.1° below normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 Hailers as shown on radar near Riverhead and now just north of Bridgeport again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 25 minutes ago, Tatamy said: Radar is insane. Big hailer south of Bridgeport. just missed here-could hear the thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 Thankfully looks like the storms weakened a little before hitting Suffolk. They don’t need another drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 Can hear the thunder from the storms to my east. Looks like I’ll get hit as the line expands west, but nothing too bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 Pretty big cell crossing 84 in orange county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 Spoke too soon. About to get whacked here. Storms exploding overhead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 9 minutes ago, psv88 said: Can hear the thunder from the storms to my east. Looks like I’ll get hit as the line expands west, but nothing too bad The one near Stony Brook looks like a hailer on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 Pouring with some wind and thunder, no hail yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 Storms missed to the east and missing to the west, at least we got some loud Florida-style thunder from the storms to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 In Smithtown, storms firing all over. Looks like just N of here might be some hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 15 minutes ago, Tatamy said: The one near Stony Brook looks like a hailer on radar. This one near Stony Brook still looks nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 Quick 1/2” of rain. Typical summertime thunderstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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