August 2024

[winterwx21]

88 degrees here right now as we start a hot 4 day period. 

[NorthShoreWx]

1 hour ago, JTA66 said:

But in mid February we get the “it can still snow in April” posts.  

It can still hit 90 in early October

 

[SACRUS]

 

87/ 60 here great day - great weekend.  hoping labor day is fair

[JerseyWx]

4 hours ago, forkyfork said:

nobody ever posts about winter's back being broken

I never knew so many people had such a hatred for summer and nice weather until I joined here lol.  

[Allsnow]

Not surprised by the seasonal models showing a cold pattern for November 

[Stormlover74]

19 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

I never knew so many people had such a hatred for summer and nice weather until I joined here lol.  

I never knew so many people enjoyed sweating their asses off 

[Rtd208]

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I never knew so many people enjoyed sweating their asses off 

 

[Rtd208]

One lone severe warned storm currently in Sussex County.

[SnowGoose69]

Tomorrow evening could be active for central and eastern LI

[Picard]

12 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

One lone severe warned storm currently in Sussex County.

It's booming around here - it's been for the past hour.  Slow mover, as it builds it's way southeast.  Very dark just off to my north.
It was actually quite hot and a little more humid here this afternoon - I've been watching some cumulonimbus clouds build around the area since about 1 pm.

[Cyg]

View of that North Jersey storm from Berkeley Heights 

[Picard]

Appears to be ebbing a bit as it heads my way.  We'll see if it recharges.

[winterwx21]

It hit 89 here, so we just missed the possibility of 4 day heat wave by 1 degree. Gonna be very close again tomorrow. 

[donsutherland1]

The first half of the week will likely see above to occasionally much above normal readings. It is likely that Baltimore and Washington, DC could experience a heatwave. The temperature could even approach or reach 90° on Wednesday in New York City.

A fresh shot of Canadian air will likely arrive late in the week to close out the month. Following the frontal passage, highs will reach the middle and upper 70s.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around August 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the fall.

The SOI was +8.92 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.335 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 83% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.1° (1.0° below normal).

 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Not surprised by the seasonal models showing a cold pattern for November 

It’s the one month that can still be cold for us. The insane W PAC MJO forcing is cold for us then before we’re blasted away with the Pacific jet for the next 4 months. I’m bearish on any kind of snowy winter here again until that goes away or we draw an inside straight somehow like 2020-21. 

[bluewave]

7 hours ago, Rjay said:

Bc it's 60 degrees most of the time

At least we were able to balance out the 60°+ warmth with blizzards the next day prior to recent years. But the last few years it has just been 60s and no snow. Hard to believe our last actual winter month was in January 2022.

https://www.weather.gov/okx/Blizzard_Feb92017

 

• The day before the blizzard (Wednesday February 8), record warmth was observed across the Tri-State area. Record highs ranged from 62 at Central Park, NY to 65 at Newark, NJ.  Temperatures dropped 30-40 degrees in 12-15 hours as readings were in the middle-upper 20s during the height of the blizzard.

 

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

It’s the one month that can still be cold for us. The insane W PAC MJO forcing is cold for us then before we’re blasted away with the Pacific jet for the next 4 months. I’m bearish on any kind of snowy winter here again until that goes away or we draw an inside straight somehow like 2020-21. 

Yeah, @bluewave said we need to see what the mjo does in October to perhaps have a chance at a 20-21 Nina type winter

[psv88]

86 today. Another perfect day on the water. A bit more of a breeze than Friday and Saturday but still top 10

[Picard]

Sussex County OBS:

Lafayette, NJ 0.88" of rain.
Sparta, 4.5 miles as the crow files 0.33" of rain.
Looks like some storms fired off well up the Hudson Valley too, but everyone else, zilch.

[SACRUS]

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 88
New Brnswck: 87
TEB: 87 * no inter hourly readings max/in
LGA: 87
BLM: 86
PHL: 86 
ACY: 86
NYC: 85
TTN: 84
JFK: 83
ISP: 83

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR:  97 (1993)
NYC: 95 (1948)
LGA: 96 (1948)
JFK: 97 (1969)

Lows:

EWR:  48 (1940) first (record) low in the 40s since 6/24
NYC: 52 (1940)
LGA: 53 (1940)
JFK: 54 (1987)

Historical:

 

814 - In the early afternoon, a strong tornado struck northwest Washington D.C. and downtown. The severe tornadic storm arrived the day after the British Troops had set fire to the Capitol, the White House, and other public buildings. The storm's rains would douse those flames. The tornado did major structural damage to the residential section of the city. The tornado's flying debris killed more British soldiers than by the guns of the American resistance. The storm blew off roofs and carried them high up into the air, knocked down chimneys and fences and damaged numerous homes. Some homes were destroyed. It lifted two pieces of cannon and deposited them several yards away. At least 30 Americans were killed or injured in the heavily damaged buildings, and an unknown number of British killed and wounded.

1885 - A severe hurricane struck South Carolina causing 1.3 million dollars damage at Charleston. (David Ludlum)

1940 - New Jersey experienced its coldest August morning of record, with lows of 32 degrees at Layton and Charlotteburg. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Morning thunderstorms produced heavy rain in eastern Nebraska and southwestern Iowa. Stanton IA reported 10.50 inches of rain. Water was reported up to the handle of automobiles west of Greenwood NE. Rainfall totals for a two day period ranged from 7 to 14 inches across southwestern Iowa. Crop damage was in the millions for both states. Subsequent flooding of streams in Iowa the last week of August caused millions of dollars damage to crops, as some streams crested ten feet above flood stage. (Storm Data)

1988 - Seven cities in California reported record high temperatures for the date, including Sacramento with an afternoon reading of 104 degrees. Thunderstorms produced locally heavy rains in Arizona. Chino Valley was drenched with 2.50 inches of rain in just thirty minutes washing out a couple of streets in town. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Morning thunderstorms drenched Spencer, IN, with 4.10 inches of rain in three hours causing extensive street flooding. Evening thunderstorms in eastern Kansas produced up to six inches of rain around Emporia, and four inches of rain in just forty-five minutes near Parsons, and also produced wind gusts to 70 mph at Lake Melvern. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2005 - Katrina becomes a hurricane just before landfall in south Florida between Hallandale Beach and North Miami Beach. Maximum sustained winds at the time of landfall were near 80 mph. There were eleven fatalities in South Florida, including four by falling trees. More than 1.3 million customers lost electrical services, and preliminary insured loss estimates ranged from $600 million to $2 billion in the state of Florida (Associated Press).

[gravitylover]

1 hour ago, Picard said:

Sussex County OBS:

Lafayette, NJ 0.88" of rain.
Sparta, 4.5 miles as the crow files 0.33" of rain.
Looks like some storms fired off well up the Hudson Valley too, but everyone else, zilch.

Yeah they shut the Dutchess County Fair early as the storm crushed the fairgrounds. It slid by to my east. 

[wdrag]

2 hours ago, Picard said:

Sussex County OBS:

Lafayette, NJ 0.88" of rain.
Sparta, 4.5 miles as the crow files 0.33" of rain.
Looks like some storms fired off well up the Hudson Valley too, but everyone else, zilch.

fwiw: This part of southern Wantage NJ at least 1.14" 250P-7P with multiple showers and tstorms (my Ambient rad 1.28 but like most home weather stations, these read too high in intense rainfall.  

EC was nil.  Best indicators of potential were in my opinion (looking back at multiple days of guidance... the 12K NAM,  HRRR,  and very weakly the SPC HREF which vastly underbid max amounts, by I suspect 2" since I was not in the narrow 2+" spots on the Digital STP,  as seen on radarscope. 
,

[wdrag]

2 minutes ago, wdrag said:

fwiw: This part of southern Wantage NJ at least 1.14" 250P-7P with multiple showers and tstorms (my Ambient rad 1.28 but like most home weather stations, these read too high in intense rainfall.  

EC was nil.  Best indicators of potential were in my opinion (looking back at multiple days of guidance... the 12K NAM,  HRRR,  and very weakly the SPC HREF which vastly underbid max amounts, by I suspect 2" since I was not in the narrow 2+" spots on the Digital STP,  as seen on radarscope. 
,

I attached the OKX digital STP.  The highlighted color is over 2". The PHI Digital STP is more accurate from our home on Linq.  

I also have STN Park in Sparta and WHT - Wheatsworth in Hardyston in 3 letter ID's which I've added as locations too my map. (ball parks I play senior ball in)

[jm1220]

3 hours ago, psv88 said:

86 today. Another perfect day on the water. A bit more of a breeze than Friday and Saturday but still top 10

From now through Sept even into Oct is the best weather period for us. The heat dies down but still quite comfortable and no back door abominations or frigid cold seabreeze like the spring. The main thing to worry about is the tropics. 

[TriPol]

7 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Not surprised by the seasonal models showing a cold pattern for November 

You never want a cold November if you like snow.

[Rtd208]

SPC Day 1 Outlook

[Rtd208]

SPC Day 3 Outlook

 

[bluewave]

A large number of stations over 10.00” on the month.

 

Monthly Data for August 2024 for Upton NY NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NY	PORT JEFFERSON STATION 0.3 SSW	CoCoRaHS	15.58
CT	NEWTOWN 4.6 SE	CoCoRaHS	15.45
NY	ST. JAMES	COOP	15.16
CT	NEWTOWN 5.3 S	CoCoRaHS	13.58
CT	NAUGATUCK 1.7 NNE	CoCoRaHS	13.29
CT	SOUTHBURY 2.3 W	CoCoRaHS	12.70
CT	STAMFORD 1.0 S	CoCoRaHS	12.70
NY	CENTEREACH 1.3 NE	CoCoRaHS	12.64
NJ	NORTH ARLINGTON 0.7 WNW	CoCoRaHS	12.35
CT	RIDGEFIELD 2.4 NNE	CoCoRaHS	12.29
CT	DANBURY	COOP	12.24
CT	BETHEL 4.5 SSE	CoCoRaHS	12.01
CT	RIDGEFIELD 3.7 NNE	CoCoRaHS	12.00
CT	MONROE 0.8 W	CoCoRaHS	11.97
CT	RIDGEFIELD 3.6 N	CoCoRaHS	11.74
CT	NEW CANAAN 3.8 N	CoCoRaHS	11.66
NJ	MAPLEWOOD TWP 0.9 SE	CoCoRaHS	11.59
NY	SETAUKET-EAST SETAUKET 0.7 SSW	CoCoRaHS	11.54
CT	HERITAGE VILLAGE 0.2 E	CoCoRaHS	11.00
CT	BETHEL 3.5 NNE	CoCoRaHS	10.94
NY	MOUNT SINAI	COOP	10.85
NJ	MONTVALE 1.8 ESE	CoCoRaHS	10.81
CT	BROOKFIELD 3.3 SSE	CoCoRaHS	10.78
NJ	WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM	COOP	10.66
CT	BETHEL 0.5 E	CoCoRaHS	10.64
NJ	OAKLAND 1.0 ESE	CoCoRaHS	10.55
NJ	CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR	COOP	10.47
CT	PROSPECT 1.9 ENE	CoCoRaHS	10.25
NJ	MONTCLAIR 0.7 N	CoCoRaHS	10.22
NY	SELDEN 1.6 ESE	CoCoRaHS	10.13
NJ	LITTLE FALLS TWP 0.5 WNW	CoCoRaHS	10.12
NJ	WAYNE TWP 0.8 SSW	CoCoRaHS	10.11

[SACRUS]

 

68 / 61 southerly winds clear and warm.   Mid - upper 80s.   Places west (un NJ) could see some touch 90.  Some showers east as tough moves offshore.   Tue - Wed hotter, upper 80s - low 90s on Tue (hotter W/inland) and mid 90s Wed and likely the hottest till next year. If enough sun some of the warmer spots to upper 90s (aided by recent dryness).   Low pushes through under the ridge later Wed into Thu with storms and clouds keeping temps capped near 80.    Clear out Friday and should warmup back to the low 80s, once NE flow shifts otherwise a pleasant day in the upper 70s.  W

arms Sat / Sun to close the month need to watch for clouds/shower+storms enhanced Sat night.   Otherwise labor day weekend looks 2 of 3 dry days and near - warmer than normal.   

Ridge west - trough east pushes a Cooler period Sep 3 - 6 (below normal perhaps moderating) shaping up ahead of Atlantic ridge and more humid/wetter and overall warmer period by the 8th perhaps coinciding with a return more activity in the tropics.