Rtd208 Posted August 18 Author Share Posted August 18 Getting some thunder here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 The remnants of Debby earlier this month fundamentally reoriented the eastern North America pattern. The end result has been a much cooler scenario that has put August on a path that could lead to a cooler than normal monthly outcome. Heavy rain brought flooding to parts of the region today. In the nearby New York City suburbs, New Rochelle picked up 3.14" of rain. Fairfield County saw the heaviest rainfall with 6"-10" amounts recorded through 6 pm. Additional heavy rain is possible in thunderstorms that could affect parts of the region this evening into tonight. After a mild start to the work week tomorrow, the coolest air mass so far this season will move into the region. There is a possibility that even New York City could see the mercury dip below 60° for the first time since June 11th during midweek. A warmer pattern could develop starting next weekend. Out West, cities such as Flagstaff, Las Vegas, and Phoenix remain on track for their hottest summer on record. Denver recently experienced its third extreme heat event (Clarke et al., 2014 framework) of the year setting a new annual record. Del Rio is in the midst of its record third extreme heat event of the year. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around August 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.12°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the early fall. The SOI was +21.00 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.608 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 57% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.6° (0.5° below normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 7 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Yeah the worst is missing to the north, but some heavy downpours starting to hit our area. It's coming down in buckets here right now but only a brief downpour. Very meh. Radar is weakening now. Oh well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Very meh. Radar is weakening now. Oh well more thunder than rain in my part of southern somerset county but looks like 15 miles to my north is getting slammed...is that white/light pink on the radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Very meh. Radar is weakening now. Oh well Getting crushed in somerset 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Getting crushed in somerset Looks as if it's gonna be pouring here again in a few minutes too. Nothing like what's going on up in northern NJ, but at least our area is getting some good downpours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 Pouring here again. I see another one formed in southern Somerset County, so we'll probably get a 3rd downpour here in a little while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 10 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: more thunder than rain in my part of southern somerset county but looks like 15 miles to my north is getting slammed...is that white/light pink on the radar now getting into some heavy stuff as a cell just popped to my south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 2.30” in 1 hour 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 Looks like if anything these storms might hit the same areas again in CT. The orientation looks headed that way and east of the city might stay dry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 16 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Very meh. Radar is weakening now. Oh well it's coming for most of us 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 4 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: now getting into some heavy stuff as a cell just popped to my south 10 minute of downpour and its gone...now seeing some blue sky peaking to the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 Very heavy rain continues. Not much wind thunder or lightning 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 18 Author Share Posted August 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyg Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 Heavy rain for the past half an hour or so here in New Providence. Winds are starting to get gusty now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 24 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Very meh. Radar is weakening now. Oh well I'm getting it pretty good here in the northwest part of the County. I'm up to 0.80" from this evening's downpours and it's still coming down VERY heavily right now. I know your area a little to my southeast isn't getting as much. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 18 Author Share Posted August 18 Starting to get some heavier rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 10 miles to my north got 1.25 in an hour and over here I got about .25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stu Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 I don't have a rain gauge, but I haven't witnessed rain this heavy since Ida. If this kept up for say, 3 hours, we'd be in some serious trouble. I'm on the Glen Ridge, Montclair border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 34 minutes ago, forkyfork said: it's coming for most of us Looks great for northeast jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 Getting clobbered with very heavy rainfall. Radar looks like some training going on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 Total on the day 1.71”. Rain has actually ended for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 3.45” in southern morris county since 545 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 Radar looks horrible for sw ct and their current situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Radar looks horrible for sw ct and their current situation Hopefully it falls apart with the loss of heating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 Getting absolutely destroyed right now in little ferry, nj. Hasn't let up in 20 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 Heavy rain and lightning in Manhattan. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 10 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Radar looks horrible for sw ct and their current situation Yup, as if it’s not bad enough there. Looks headed NE right for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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