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64/ 60 clouds and showers/rain moving through.  Cloudy and cooler today mid 70s, not as many breaks in the clouds.   Labor day weekend starts with a mainly cloudy Sat near 80 / warms up Sunday mid upper 80s but storms come through in the pm as front clears through.  Memorial the sunniest and driest day near normal.    Cooler 9/2 - 9/8.   Humid/wetter 9/9 - mid month.  Perhaps warmer approaching the mid month period or just before.   Tropics may have some activity later this weekend / next week.

 

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3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Only 0.04" here overnight. Hopefully we'll get some decent rain Saturday night into Sunday morning. The vegetable garden could use a drink. After that our next chance probably won't come until next Friday or Saturday. 

Latest NAMS have very little unless you're well north of the city

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30 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Latest NAMS have very little unless you're well north of the city

Yeah on most models right now the heavy action in PA weakens to just showers by the time it gets to our area Saturday night. Latest RGEM does hold it together enough to give us around a quarter inch. It is going to be very humid and maybe the models will beef it up a little bit as it gets closer. We'll see. We could use some rain here. 

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Landed in Mexico yesterday (Thursday) to the exact same conditions we had on Wednesday, 95 with dews deep into the 70’s. 17 degree difference in latitude. Only difference was the breeze here vs none in Long Island. Crazy how our climate is literally semi-tropical.

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11 minutes ago, Cfa said:

Landed in Mexico yesterday (Thursday) to the exact same conditions we had on Wednesday, 95 with dews deep into the 70’s. 17 degree difference in latitude. Only difference was the breeze here vs none in Long Island. Crazy how our climate is literally semi-tropical.

Highs in the mid 90s here in the summer isn’t that atypical. What’s becoming more common are the high dews that come with it. Way more days now than 20 years ago with 75+ dew points. @bluewave has posted data on this in the past. Sunday might be our next day with dews near 75. 

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6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Highs in the mid 90s here in the summer isn’t that atypical. What’s becoming more common are the high dews that come with it. Way more days now than 20 years ago with 75+ dew points. @bluewave has posted data on this in the past. Sunday might be our next day with dews near 75. 

The changeover was very abrupt. These aren’t the same summers I remember from the 2000’s.

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2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Highs in the mid 90s here in the summer isn’t that atypical. What’s becoming more common are the high dews that come with it. Way more days now than 20 years ago with 75+ dew points. @bluewave has posted data on this in the past. Sunday might be our next day with dews near 75. 

Yeah, looks like this was the first time that HVN had 30 days with a 75° or higher dew point.

 

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Highs will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s during the weekend. A shower or thunderstorm is likely tomorrow evening and tomorrow night. Sunday could be the warmest day with some locations reaching the middle 80s, but another shot of cooler air will arrive early next week. Overall, the first week of September will likely wind up somewhat cooler than normal.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around August 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the fall.

The SOI was +10.14 yesterday.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.368 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.1° (1.0° below normal).

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Highs will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s during the weekend. A shower or thunderstorm is likely tomorrow evening and tomorrow night. Sunday could be the warmest day with some locations reaching the middle 80s, but another shot of cooler air will arrive early next week. Overall, the first week of September will likely wind up somewhat cooler than normal.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around August 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the fall.

The SOI was +10.14 yesterday.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.368 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.1° (1.0° below normal).

Side note - Always love your Write Ups. You and @bluewave

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Back to back top 10 wettest summers for me.

 

Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT - Jun through Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 2009 17.52 0
2 2006 17.45 1
3 2011 17.38 0
4 1972 16.54 0
5 1955 15.30 0
6 2003 14.55 0
7 1952 13.87 0
8 2024 13.77 1
9 2023 13.45 2
10 1950 13.08 0
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Records: 8/30

Highs

EWR: 100 (1953)
NYC: 98 (1973)
LGA: 99 (1953)
JFK: 95 (1973)


Lows:

EWR: 49 (1934)
NYC: 50 (1965)
LGA: 55 (1986)
JKK: 51 (1965)

 

Historical:

 

1776 - General Washington took advantage of a heavy fog to evacuate Long Island after a defeat. Adverse winds kept the British fleet from intervening. (David Ludlum)

1838 - A major tornado, possibly the worst in Rhode Island history, passed south of Providence. It uprooted and stripped trees of their branches, unroofed or destroyed many houses, and sucked water out of ponds. The tornado barely missed a local railroad depot, where many people were waiting for a train. The tornado injured five people.

1839 - A hurricane moved from Cape Hatteras NC to offshore New England. An unusual feature of the hurricane was the snow it helped produce, which whitened the Catskill Mountains of New York State. Considerable snow was also reported at Salem NY. (The Weather Channel)

1982 - A tropical depression brought torrential rains to portions of southern Texas. Up to twelve inches fell south of Houston, and as much as eighteen inches fell southeast of Austin. The tropical depression spawned fourteen tornadoes in three days. (David Ludlum) Record cold gripped the northeastern U.S. Thirty-one cities in New England reported record lows, and areas of Vermont received up to three inches of snow. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Eight cities in California and Oregon reported record high temperatures for the date, including Redding CA and Sacramento CA where the mercury hit 100 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Thunderstorms drenched Georgia and the Carolinas with heavy rain, soaking Columbia, SC, with 4.10 inches in three hours. Fresno CA was the hot spot in the nation with a record high of 109 degrees. Duluth MN tied their record for the month of August with a morning low of 39 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced large hail in Montana and North Dakota during the evening and early nighttime hours. Hail three inches in diameter was reported 20 miles south of Medora ND, and thunderstorms over Dawson County MT produced up to three inches of rain. Thunderstorms produced golf ball size hail at Roundup MT, Dazey ND and Protection KS. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

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70 / 65 cloudy.   We'll see how much clearing we can get by the afternoon.  Clouds seem kind of stuck.  Upper 70s / low 80s with more sun.  Similar Sun with chance of showers and storms - warmer but clouds should keep it in the low 80s, more sun would push mid 80s.  Clears by Labor Day and looks very nice sunny near 80.  Cooler Sep 2 - Sep 8 but very nice / dry stretch and seemingly sunny each day.   Watch the tropics in the GOM/FL next week and perhaps a threat up the coast later next weekend in the 9/11 - 9/13 period.   Ridge west and trough eat overall with onshore or cut off as the rduge comes east.  Heat stays west.  Warmer by the middle of the month.

 

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