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The temperature rose to 91° in New York City and Islip and 95° at Newark. Further south, it was even hotter. Washington, DC saw the mercury reach 100°. However, the heat will break after today.

A fresh shot of Canadian air will arrive overnight to close out the month. Following the frontal passage, highs will reach the middle and upper 70s tomorrow and Friday and then the upper 70s to lower 80s during the weekend.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around August 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the fall.

The SOI was +19.36 yesterday.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.718 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.0° (1.1° below normal).

 

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6 hours ago, FPizz said:

Yup, I was 1" below average.  Plus, I'm loving the group think of a bad winter.  Group think rarely pans out.    

I'm not a big fan of canceling winter in August.  

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1 hour ago, Rjay said:

I'm not a big fan of canceling winter in August.  

I find it best to ignore people who make generalized statements like that. Based off of nothing but emotions. Especially when one or two storms can make a winter for this region. 
 

as for right now, storms passing just south of me in morris county but hear the thunder and see the lightning 

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5 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

I find it best to ignore people who make generalized statements like that. Based off of nothing but emotions. Especially when one or two storms can make a winter for this region. 

Yep. Take 1983 for example. Pattern was awful that season then came the big dog. One storm is all it took.

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4 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

I find it best to ignore people who make generalized statements like that. Based off of nothing but emotions. Especially when one or two storms can make a winter for this region. 

In this case, persistence is just as reliable as any other type of forecasting.  Also, we all seem to define winter differently?  For me, WINTER is defined as an extended period of nights below freezing, some local ponds freeze, and if we are lucky, a few nice snows.  Had we squeezed in one or two, separate, foot or more snowstorms the last few years, I wouldn't consider that WINTER.  (I know, my grammar is failing)...

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