Allsnow Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 Rain chances quickly evaporating 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Rain chances quickly evaporating hopefully they go away for this weekend too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 The temperature rose to 86° in New York City and 87° at Newark. Tomorrow will be even warmer as an air mass that brought the temperature to a record 99° in Chicago comes eastward. The temperature could soar to 90° or above as far north as southern New England. It is likely that Baltimore and Washington, DC will reach heatwave status as the mercury rises into the upper 90s and approaches 100°. A fresh shot of Canadian air will arrive late in the week to close out the month. Following the frontal passage, highs will reach the middle and upper 70s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around August 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the fall. The SOI was +22.09 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.801 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 96% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.0° (1.1° below normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 It hit 91 here today. The last 2 days it was 89, so we just barely missed having a 4 day heat wave here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 7 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Hrrr has activity now. Nam hits Philly to AC I see on the 18z run the HRRR has almost nothing for tomorrow, but then hits us during the overnight hours. We'll be coming up on 10 days without rain so we could use some, but I'm not very high on this threat. It looks mostly to the south but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 87° the popular number for high temp last 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 35 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: I see on the 18z run the HRRR has almost nothing for tomorrow, but then hits us during the overnight hours. We'll be coming up on 10 days without rain so we could use some, but I'm not very high on this threat. It looks mostly to the south but we'll see. I see spc shifted south again taking us almost out of slight risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: I feel like we've been in this back and forth for awhile now. Happens every season. The last consistent pretty nice fall I remember was 2021. BTW, @bluewavedo you have any stats on where Fall 2021 fell in terms of top 10 warmest? I know October was pretty amazing, must have been at least +5 AN unless I'm mis-remembering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 13 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: I feel like we've been in this back and forth for awhile now. Happens every season. The last consistent pretty nice fall I remember was 2021. BTW, @bluewavedo you have any stats on where Fall 2021 fell in terms of top 10 warmest? I know October was pretty amazing, must have been at least +5 AN unless I'm mis-remembering. October was +6.9 at ewr..November was average 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 28 Share Posted August 28 Highs: PHL: 90 New Brnswck: 89 EWR: 87 TEB: 87 LGA: 87 TTN: 87 BLM: 86 NYC: 86 ISP: 85 ACY: 86 JFK: 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 28 Share Posted August 28 Records: Highs: EWR: 100 (1993) NYC: 101 (1948) LGA: 99 (1948) JFK: 101 (1948) Lows: EWR: 52 (1940) NYC: 50 (1885) LGA: 5 (1940) JFK: 59 (1989) Historical: 1854 - A tornado struck downtown Louisville around noon on Sunday, August 27th, 1854. It first touched down near 25th Street, southwest of downtown and lifted at the intersection of 5th and Main Streets. Although the tornado was only on the ground for a little over two miles, the twister claimed at least 25 lives. Many of those who perished were killed in the Third Presbyterian Church, where 55 people were gathered for Sunday church services. Straight-line winds that accompanied the tornado did significant damage to the Ohio River, where at least one boat sunk. 1881: A Category 2 Hurricane made landfall between St. Simons Island and Savannah, Georgia, on this day. Landfall coincided with high tide and proved very destructive. The hurricane killed 700 people, including 335 in Savannah, making it the sixth deadliest hurricane in the United States. 1883: Krakatoa Volcano exploded in the East Indies. The explosion was heard more than 2500 miles away, and every barograph around the world recorded the passage of the airwave, up to seven times. Giant waves, 125 feet high and traveling 300 mph, devastated everything in their path, hurling ashore coral blocks weighing up to 900 tons, and killing more than 36,000 persons. Volcanic ash was carried around the globe in thirteen days producing blue and green suns in the tropics, and vivid red sunsets in higher latitudes. The temperature of the earth was lowered one degree for the next two years, finally recovering to normal by 1888. 1893 - The first of three great hurricanes that year struck South Carolina drowning more than 1000 persons in a tidal surge at Charleston. (David Ludlum) 1893: An estimated Category 3 hurricane made landfall near Savannah, Georgia on this day. This hurricane produced a high storm surge of 16 to 30 feet which cost the lives of 1,000 to 2,000 people. As of now, this storm is one of the top 5, deadliest hurricanes on record for the USA. 1964 - Hurricane Cleo battered Miami and the South Florida area. It was the first direct hit for Miami in fourteen years. Winds gusted to 135 mph, and the hurricane caused 125 million dollars damage. (David Ludlum) 1970 - Elko, NV, was deluged with 3.66 inches of rain in just one hour, establishing a state record. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Washington D.C. soared to a record hot 100 degrees, while clouds and rain to the north kept temperature readings in the 50s in central and southeastern New York State. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Afternoon thunderstorms produced locally heavy rains in the southwestern U.S. Thunderstorms in eastern New Mexico produced wind gusts to 75 mph near the White Sands Missile Range, and produced three inches of rain in two hours near the town of Belen. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in southeastern Nebraska, eastern Kansas and Missouri. Thunderstorms produced baseball size hail south of Belleville KS, and tennis ball size hail south of Lincoln NE. Thunderstorms produced golf ball size hail and wind gusts to 70 mph at Saint Joseph MO. Thunder- storms in North Dakota deluged the town of Linton with six inches of rain in one hour. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 2013 - Numerous severe thunderstorms brought large hail along with wind gusts from 60 to 90 mph to parts of north central and northeast South Dakota. Numerous trees were downed along with many structures damaged. Eighty mph winds near Polo in Hand County snapped off two large cottonwood trees. Ninety mph winds snapped numerous trees off at their base along with destroying a garage and tipping several campers over onto their side at Cottonwood Lake near Redfield. 2005: Hurricane Katrina reached Category 3 intensity in the Gulf of Mexico about 335 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 28 Share Posted August 28 87 today. Scorcher tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted August 28 Share Posted August 28 3 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: October was +6.9 at ewr..November was average Crazy, although not surprising about November I guess based on warming trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 28 Author Share Posted August 28 SPC Day 1 Outlook 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 28 Share Posted August 28 The high to the north corrected stronger than originally forecast. So 90s forecast right down to the South Shore beaches with rare WNW flow 90s. One of the few 90s days without onshore flow. Could be the warmest day of the summer for JFK which has only made it to 93° due to all the onshore flow. New run Old run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 28 Share Posted August 28 9 minutes ago, bluewave said: The high to the north corrected stronger than originally forecast. So 90s forecast right down to the South Shore beaches with rare WNW flow 90s. One of the few 90s days without onshore flow. Could be the warmest day of the summer for JFK which has only made it to 93° due to all the onshore flow. New run Old run Yep, maybe mid 90s today if we can get the downslope WNW flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 28 Share Posted August 28 High for Friday is forecasted to be 74 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 28 Share Posted August 28 5 minutes ago, Allsnow said: High for Friday is forecasted to be 74 Doesn't seem very Nina like in LR. Tropics still mostly dead, lots of strong troughs digging east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 28 Share Posted August 28 76 / 65 some clouds. On the way to low - mid 90s, enough sun gets the warm spots to he 96-97 range, but looking a bit cloudy and highest till next year. Onshore flow tomorrow with coouds keeps it in the 70s. Clear Friday but strong NE flow remains cooler in the 70s. Weekend looks 2/3 days with clouds and showers before drying out Labor day itself. Cooler Sep 3 - 7. Beyond there near normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 28 Share Posted August 28 20 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Doesn't seem very Nina like in LR. Tropics still mostly dead, lots of strong troughs digging east. Yup. I warned people months ago to pump the breaks on those high expectations. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 28 Share Posted August 28 26 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yup. I warned people months ago to pump the breaks on those high expectations. For our sake for the winter hopefully that turns around. A low ACE Nina winter is usually a complete dud. But like others said not much to turn it around when most of the Atlantic is choked in stable dry air. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 28 Share Posted August 28 26 minutes ago, jm1220 said: For our sake for the winter hopefully that turns around. A low ACE Nina winter is usually a complete dud. But like others said not much to turn it around when most of the Atlantic is choked in stable dry air. Meh, winter is probably going to suck either way 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted August 28 Share Posted August 28 shitty weekend in tap go figure my only getaway to the shore this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 28 Share Posted August 28 3 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: shitty weekend in tap go figure my only getaway to the shore this year. It won't be that bad 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 28 Share Posted August 28 38 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: shitty weekend in tap go figure my only getaway to the shore this year. Rain Sunday but the rest of the weekend looks nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted August 28 Share Posted August 28 32 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: It won't be that bad Yeah maybe some showers/storms late Saturday. Sunday and Monday look good. I'll be having my cookouts Sunday and Monday, so I don't care if it rains Saturday anyway. We'll be needing some rain too after a long dry stretch, assuming we don't get anything today. Not too optimistic about later today. I see on the 12 runs HRRR and both NAM models don't have much activity. It looks like just a slight chance (I'd go with 20%). I'm going down to Seaside Heights this afternoon. Weather looks good for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 28 Share Posted August 28 86 / 70 hottest (at this hour) since August 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 28 Share Posted August 28 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: Meh, winter is probably going to suck either way 6 months of autumn. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 28 Share Posted August 28 19 minutes ago, jm1220 said: 6 months of autumn. Yup, unless we get some type of 20-21 miracle that nobody saw coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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