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The remnants of Debby earlier this month fundamentally reoriented the eastern North America pattern. The end result has been a much cooler scenario that has put August on a path that could lead to a cooler than normal monthly outcome.

Heavy rain brought flooding to parts of the region today. In the nearby New York City suburbs, New Rochelle picked up 3.14" of rain. Fairfield County saw the heaviest rainfall with 6"-10" amounts recorded through 6 pm. Additional heavy rain is possible in thunderstorms that could affect parts of the region this evening into tonight.

After a mild start to the work week tomorrow, the coolest air mass so far this season will move into the region. There is a possibility that even New York City could see the mercury dip below 60° for the first time since June 11th during midweek.

A warmer pattern could develop starting next weekend.

Out West, cities such as Flagstaff, Las Vegas, and Phoenix remain on track for their hottest summer on record. Denver recently experienced its third extreme heat event (Clarke et al., 2014 framework) of the year setting a new annual record. Del Rio is in the midst of its record third extreme heat event of the year.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around August 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.12°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the early fall.

The SOI was +21.00 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.608 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 57% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.6° (0.5° below normal).

 

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7 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah the worst is missing to the north, but some heavy downpours starting to hit our area. It's coming down in buckets here right now but only a brief downpour. 

Very meh. Radar is weakening now. Oh well 

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10 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

more thunder than rain in my part of southern somerset county but looks like 15 miles to my north is getting slammed...is that white/light pink on the radar

now getting into some heavy stuff as a cell just popped to my south

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24 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Very meh. Radar is weakening now. Oh well 

I'm getting it pretty good here in the northwest part of the County. I'm up to 0.80" from this evening's downpours and it's still coming down VERY heavily right now. I know your area a little to my southeast isn't getting as much. 

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I don't have a rain gauge, but I haven't witnessed rain this heavy since Ida. If this kept up for say, 3 hours, we'd be in some serious trouble. I'm on the Glen Ridge, Montclair border.

 

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