August 2024

[JustinRP37]

Some parts of the forum are dry but nobody was ever at risk of drought this year. You don’t get drought with dewpoints in the 70s. All this talk of missing out on rain has been a bit crazy. The Hudson Valley, southern CT, and many other areas have been pretty wet. If we had low dews with high temps and drying out over weeks then we could discuss drought. Also for the year almost the entire forum is above average for precipitation, even the current “dry” areas. So while lawns may brown up, it hasn’t been bad. Plus grass lawns are exactly native to the region. 

[MANDA]

Picked up .42" last 24 hours.  Got lucky with heavy downpour last evening as last of the rain cleared my area.  Two day total = 1.50".

Interesting possibilities for rainfall this week.  Details to be determined but totals could be excessive to perhaps extreme depending on direct impacts (if any) from Debby.  Good signal for heavy totals even without direct impacts from possible PRE.   Worst case scenario would be a PRE than to have Debby track very near your location or a short distance east of you.  Tropical moisture in that scenario would get lifted over the "cooler and drier" air mass moving in from the west.  Worth watching for eventual possible track up this way and how it interacts with upper trof and associated surface front late week or maybe next weekend.  A ways to go.

[bluewave]

Parts of the region have the chance to surpass 100” of precipitation since last July especially if we can generate follow up tropical systems after Debby into September or October. 
 

Data for July 1, 2023 through August 4, 2024 NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

HIGHLAND LAKES 1SW	COOP	82.37
MINE HILL TWP 0.4 NE	CoCoRaHS	82.21

 

 

Data for July 1, 2023 through August 4, 2024 NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

WEST POINT	COOP	86.56
STONY POINT 0.7 NW	CoCoRaHS	85.69
CARMEL 4N	COOP	85.45
HIGHMARKET 2W	COOP	84.97
SOUTH SALEM 0.8 N	CoCoRaHS	84.37
THORNWOOD 0.7 NW	CoCoRaHS	82.17
PEEKSKILL 0.4 N	CoCoRaHS	81.65
PHONECIA 2SW	COOP	80.78
SHRUB OAK	COOP	80.59

 

Data for July 1, 2023 through August 4, 2024 CT
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

COLUMBIA 2.6 S	CoCoRaHS	94.27
BURLINGTON	COOP	93.69
NEWINGTON 1.9 SSW	CoCoRaHS	93.52
BRISTOL 2.8 NNE	CoCoRaHS	92.77
BRISTOL 2.7 WNW	CoCoRaHS	92.35
SOUTH WINDHAM 1.3 NNE	CoCoRaHS	91.53
MOOSUP 1.7 NE	CoCoRaHS	90.94
SALMON BROOK 4.9 WSW	CoCoRaHS	90.55
MIDDLEFIELD 1.4 W	CoCoRaHS	90.30
PROSPECT 1.9 ENE	CoCoRaHS	90.22

 

Data for July 1, 2023 through August 4, 2024 VT
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

AVERILL	COOP	81.76
NASHVILLE 1 E	COOP	80.53
STAMFORD 5.0 NNE	CoCoRaHS	80.51
CABOT 3.9 ENE	CoCoRaHS	80.00

RI

Data for July 1, 2023 through August 4, 2024
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

COVENTRY 1.2 SW	CoCoRaHS	89.65
NORTH CENTRAL STATE AIRPORT	WBAN	89.27
CRANSTON 1.2 SSE	CoCoRaHS	86.98
WEST WARWICK 3.3 SSW	CoCoRaHS	86.83
GREENE 1.4 E	CoCoRaHS	86.77
FOSTER 4.0 SSE	CoCoRaHS	86.51

 

[MANDA]

Last 24 hours.

[SACRUS]

 

76 / 72 and 1.59 in the bucket yesterday. Cloudy and more storms later today, perhaps some breaks in the clouds but mostly cloudy keeping it in the mid 80s. Driest and sunniest day tomorrow and the hottest day for the next week to 10 days.   Mid to upper 90s in the warm spots.   By Tue  showers and storms return but remaining warm / humid clouds keeping it in the mid - upper 80s and a few stray 90 readings. Wed (8/7) - Sat (8/10)  very wet with tropical moisture and remnants of Debby meandering around the Southeast slowly creeping north as its blocked from the Atlantic Ridge expanding west.  Track of Debby and its remnants could lead to >5 inches of rain by Sunday.   Heat is capped till mid month when western ridge and heat expand east with next hot signal towards / after mid month.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Good thing we had some "drier" under performing weeks.  Even if half of this falls - its an excessive rainfall

 

[SACRUS]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

It looks like the pattern is becoming wet enough that the 100° heat and warmest part of the summer is behind us now. 

 

Certainly for the next 10 days f not till next year once we get passed Monday.   2006 had the deluges and still had heat and you wonder if that western furnace comes east after mid month.  We'll need a 3 week period to dry out.  

[SACRUS]

 

Rainfall amounts > 6 inches starting to ring of Irene and Floyd flooding levels. Talking strictly rainfall and flooding not track or storm / wind, surge etc

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

3 hours ago, wdrag said:

WPC 7-10" next 7 days in much of NJ on their3AM products. PRE seems in the mix somewhere between northern NYS to DE. Result: lots of flooding beyond the Debby 5 day impacts se USA (ie late this week or coming weekend). No more watering needed for a while.

 

Wantage (this part) 1.44 on Fri and about 0.7 yesterday.  imo, HRRR is not responding well to its supposed convection advantage, until a little too late, though it has had Monday evening pegged since yesterday (48 hr product).  RGEM HRDPS are worthy of reviewing for big clusters and of course the SPC HREF, where I pay attention to the max bullseye.  

If you want a thread for the potency ahead, go for it or let me know.  For now, I want to wait til late today at the earliest.  NHC still not talking flooding in the mid-Atlantic-ne USA.

Added all 00z/4 guidance: WPC 7 day total,  The GEFS prob for flooding rain and the ECMWF EFI (extreme forecast signal-prob looks pretty high just south of NYC)... all modeling suggesting pockets serious east coast flooding potential NYC down I95 into the se USA. Use the legends for your advantage. Have a day. 641A/4

 

 

Id vote this warrants its own thread - we could be on Floyd/Irene level flooding with some of the more severe forecasts being modeled.

[uofmiami]

29 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Certainly for the next 10 days f not till next year once we get passed Monday.   2006 had the deluges and still had heat and you wonder if that western furnace comes east after mid month.  We'll need a 3 week period to dry out.  

Heat will come back but the hottest is behind us IMO.

[psv88]

6 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Heat will come back but the hottest is behind us IMO.

Agreed. We’ll get some more 90s but the upper 90s are probably gone. My max for the season was 96 last Thursday, which is about normal for my summer max temp. 

[winterwarlock]

2 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

Some parts of the forum are dry but nobody was ever at risk of drought this year. You don’t get drought with dewpoints in the 70s. All this talk of missing out on rain has been a bit crazy. The Hudson Valley, southern CT, and many other areas have been pretty wet. If we had low dews with high temps and drying out over weeks then we could discuss drought. Also for the year almost the entire forum is above average for precipitation, even the current “dry” areas. So while lawns may brown up, it hasn’t been bad. Plus grass lawns are exactly native to the region. 

this isnt true in central jersey...we had a 2 week stretch in early to mid July where we did well with over 2 inches but then went about 12 days with basically nothing...did receive about an inch yesterday but we went through 2 distinct dry periods that wiped out the lawns...first one was really bad, it eased and then the crabgrass proliferated with lawns basically struggling to come back and then the past 2 weeks has really hurt any new growth

[winterwarlock]

looks like my 7 day heatwave is likely to come to an end today...but keeping my fingers cross we can get enough sun to get there

[JustinRP37]

16 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

this isnt true in central jersey...we had a 2 week stretch in early to mid July where we did well with over 2 inches but then went about 12 days with basically nothing...did receive about an inch yesterday but we went through 2 distinct dry periods that wiped out the lawns...first one was really bad, it eased and then the crabgrass proliferated with lawns basically struggling to come back and then the past 2 weeks has really hurt any new growth

Even year to date central NJ is still normal to just above normal.  The dry period has only been a few weeks. But lawns are no a good indicator. 

[Stormlover74]

12 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Even year to date central NJ is still normal to just above normal.  The dry period has only been a few weeks. But lawns are no a good indicator. 

Correct. This is not a drought. We haven't had a true drought in many years 

[wdrag]

50 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Id vote this warrants its own thread - we could be on Floyd/Irene level flooding with some of the more severe forecasts being modeled.

Let's take another look at this around 630PM when a whole bunch of new guidance is available. I want to see ECMWF EFI hold firm.  This is going to be a tantalizer, I think...slow moving. Different daily relatively narrow paths of 1-3" rainfall from this afternoon, & Tuesday onward.  

Not sure if anyone else is noticing the potential for a narrow line of heavy showers/storms moving seed in the 6P-midnight time frame Monday. 

 

There may are some thoughts to no-go so I'll review and think on it, pending new guidance. Thanks for the feedback.

[Stormlover74]

Icon starts us off

[IrishRob17]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Correct. This is not a drought. We haven't had a true drought in many years 

Off the top of my head the last true drought was 2002. We have had some dry spells though in the growing season that come to a crashing, rather wet, end sooner rather that later when compared to a true drought. 

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Off the top of my head the last true drought was 2002. We have had some dry spells though in the growing season that come to a crashing, rather wet, end sooner rather that later when compared to a true drought. 

Yeah growing up they were always talking about low reservoir levels and water restrictions. That's been pretty rare the past 2 decades

[jm1220]

7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Icon starts us off

If we start to see a trend to more progressive with the low it's where we might be in trouble since the next trough can come in and grab it. The solutions that bury it under the trough in the southeast leave us drier. 

[winterwarlock]

22 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Even year to date central NJ is still normal to just above normal.  The dry period has only been a few weeks. But lawns are no a good indicator. 

not interested in yearly totals..what has it been the past couple of months. Ive been in the lawn business for years...this year is bad for the lawsn but true Ive seen worse...2021 was pretty devestating around here for a one month period with lawns

[winterwarlock]

more appropriate....90 days

 

[SnoSki14]

6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If we start to see a trend to more progressive with the low it's where we might be in trouble since the next trough can come in and grab it. The solutions that bury it under the trough in the southeast leave us drier. 

Subtle trends east with CMC/GFS

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Subtle trends east with CMC/GFS

Cmc shifted north from 0z with debby

[SACRUS]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Agreed. We’ll get some more 90s but the upper 90s are probably gone. My max for the season was 96 last Thursday, which is about normal for my summer max temp. 

Could see some 96-97 tomorrow in the warm spots.  Its probably the highest mas through 8/14 and maxes come down but would never rule out a day or two of stronger heat later past the mid month period.

[SACRUS]

14 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

more appropriate....90 days

 

 

Not sure how this is calculated but EWR, PHL, TTN, New brnswck all above th average # 90 degree days through AUg 3

[SACRUS]

1 hour ago, winterwarlock said:

looks like my 7 day heatwave is likely to come to an end today...but keeping my fingers cross we can get enough sun to get there

78 / 74 here and some brightening skies but think clearing isnt long enough to push 90, we'll wee.  THe wetter prior two days also hindering.  Tomorrow one day heat this week and perhaps into the following week.

 

[forkyfork]

5 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Not sure how this is calculated but EWR, PHL, TTN, New brnswck all above th average # 90 degree days through AUg 3

that's 90 day precip

[Stormlover74]

Gfs is wet but nothing crazy. Mostly 2 to 3"

Cmc:

[JustinRP37]

38 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

more appropriate....90 days

 

Which will be eliminated by next Sunday. As others have said we really haven’t had a true drought since the early 2000s. I remember golfing in the 90s and every course was basically torched from July to late August. Our lawns too are cool season grasses. Doesn’t take much for them to dry out. Rain this time of year always tends to be highly localized downpours. And a good chunk of the forum is above average.