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49 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Lots of rain 

I see lots of 1.5" to 2" totals in Middlesex County. Of course just a few miles to my south and east like usual. I ended up with 0.68". I don't know what it is that constantly causes the heavier storms to slip just to the south of my area here in the NW corner of the County. But at least I got almost three quarters of an inch, so decent. That seemed like a deluge after how dry it has been lately. 

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43 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I see lots of 1.5" to 2" totals in Middlesex County. Of course just a few miles to my south and east like usual. I ended up with 0.68". I don't know what it is that constantly causes the heavier storms to slip just to the south of my area here in the NW corner of the County. But at least I got almost three quarters of an inch, so decent. That seemed like a deluge after how dry it has been lately. 

Glad you got some rain the past few days.

 

 We have had over 3 inches here in the first 3 days of the month. The drought has officially be busted thankfully imby. @bluewave thank you 

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Records:

Highs:

EWR: 101 (2006)
NYC: 97 (2005)
LGA: 100 (2006)
JFK:  99 (2006)


Lows:

EWR: 57 (1953)/
NYC: 55 (1927)
LGA: 59 (1953)
JFK:  56 (1964)

HIstorical:

 

1885 - A tornado hit Philadelphia and Camden along its eight mile path. (David Ludlum)

1970 - Hurricane Celia struck the coast of Texas producing wind gusts to 161 mph at Corpus Christi, and estimated wind gusts of 180 mph at Arkansas Pass. The hurricane was the most destructive of record along the Texas coast causing 454 million dollars damage, and also claimed eleven lives. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A severe thunderstorm moved across Cheyenne, WY, during the mid afternoon. The thunderstorm produced hailstones up to two inches in diameter causing more than 37 million dollars damage. The eastern U.S. sweltered in the heat. A dozen cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Paducah KY with a reading of 102 degrees. Beckley WV established an all- time record with an afternoon high of 93 degrees. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a slow moving cold front produced severe weather from the Central High Plains to the Upper Great Lakes Region. Thunderstorms around Fort Collins, CO, produced wind gusts to 74 mph along with marble size hail. Sixteen persons were injured in the storm, most of whom were accidently locked out of their office building, having evacuated it when the fire alarm went off, apparently triggered by lightning. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thunderstorms representing what remained of Hurricane Chantal drenched Wichita, KS, with 2.20 inches of rain in four hours during the early morning. Thunderstorms developing in Minnesota produced wind gusts to 85 mph at Baudette during the afternoon, and softball size hail at Lake Kabetogama, during the evening. Jamestown, ND, reported a record hot afternoon high of 103 degrees. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

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8 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Glad you got some rain the past few days.

 

 We have had over 3 inches here in the first 3 days of the month. The drought has officially be busted thankfully imby. @bluewave thank you 

It looks like the pattern is becoming wet enough that the 100° heat and warmest part of the summer is behind us now. 

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WPC 7-10" next 7 days in much of NJ on their3AM products. PRE seems in the mix somewhere between northern NYS to DE. Result: lots of flooding beyond the Debby 5 day impacts se USA (ie late this week or coming weekend). No more watering needed for a while.

 

Wantage (this part) 1.44 on Fri and about 0.7 yesterday.  imo, HRRR is not responding well to its supposed convection advantage, until a little too late, though it has had Monday evening pegged since yesterday (48 hr product).  RGEM HRDPS are worthy of reviewing for big clusters and of course the SPC HREF, where I pay attention to the max bullseye.  

If you want a thread for the potency ahead, go for it or let me know.  For now, I want to wait til late today at the earliest.  NHC still not talking flooding in the mid-Atlantic-ne USA.

Added all 00z/4 guidance: WPC 7 day total,  The GEFS prob for flooding rain and the ECMWF EFI (extreme forecast signal-prob looks pretty high just south of NYC)... all modeling suggesting pockets serious east coast flooding potential NYC down I95 into the se USA. Use the legends for your advantage. Have a day. 641A/4

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1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Any thoughts on Debbie or it’s too early? 

If we only get the PRE like the GFS and suppressed track then my guess is a 5”+ jackpot somewhere in the region. But if Debbie gives us a PRE and then tracks north like the Euro than a 10”+ jackpot for somebody. We probably won’t know for several more days yet. But it looks very wet either way. 

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