August 2024 temperature forecast contest

Roger Smith · July 26

Predict temp anomalies for nine locations (F deg relative to 1991-2020 averages) ...

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

Deadline is 06z August 1st

hudsonvalley21 · July 28

DCA: +3.2

NYC: +2.9

BOS: +2.5

ORD: +2.4

ATL: +2.8

IAH: +3.1

DEN: +3.0

PHX: +2.1

SEA: +1.4

Scotty Lightning · July 30

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

2.0 1.5 1.0 1.0 2.0 2.5 1.0 2.0 0.5

so_whats_happening · July 30

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

+1.7 +1.6 +1.9 +1.1 +1.6 +1.1 +1.8 +2 +3.2

Before I forget, may tweak slightly before the 1st. I'll add an edit time if I do.

Edit: 02z

Rjay · July 30

DCA: +3.0

NYC: +3.0

BOS: +2.7

ORD: +1.7

ATL: +2.0

IAH: +2.5

DEN: +1.5

PHX: +1.5

SEA: +1.2

wxallannj · July 31

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

+2.2 +2.1 +1.8 +0.6 +2.2 +1.8 +1.8 +2.0 +2.7

Tom · July 31

DCA: +2.9

NYC: +2.8

BOS: +2.4

ORD: +1.9

ATL: +2.2

IAH: +2.2

DEN: +2.5

PHX: +1.9

SEA: +0.6

donsutherland1 · July 31

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.5 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.1 0.4 2.7 2.8 2.9

RodneyS · July 31

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.8 -0.1 -0.5 1.3 0.7 1.5

Roger Smith · August 1

+1.2 _ +1.2 _ +1.4 _ +1.4 _ +1.6 _ +1.7 _ +2.3 _ +4.0 _ +2.0

Stormchaserchuck1 · August 1

DCA: +1.4

NYC: +1.5

BOS: +1.2

ORD: +0.1

ATL: +0.9

IAH: +1.1

DEN: +0.8

PHX: +2.2

SEA: +2.0

bkviking · August 1

sorry late and missed last month. A lot going on but wanted to get back in

DCA: +2.4

NYC: +2.8

BOS: +2.8

ORD: +1.3

ATL: +1.5

IAH: +2.2

DEN: +1.2

PHX: +1.7

SEA: +1.0

wxdude64 · August 1

DCA: +2.2

NYC: +2.1

BOS: +1.8

ORD: +0.6

ATL: +0.3

IAH: +0.2

DEN: -0.5

PHX: +0.6

SEA: +1.8

rainsucks · August 1

completely forgot about this, been super busy.

DCA: +1.0

NYC: +1.2

BOS: +1.4

ORD: 0.0

ATL: +1.7

IAH: +0.9

DEN: +1.8

PHX: +3.0

SEA: +2.2

Roger Smith · August 2

Late penalties are fairly lenient now in contest, apologies to BKViking as I was very late getting to table of forecasts in July and did not realize until too late no entry was received, I probably would send a request if I was not so late on task. Anyway, take pro-rated scores as better indication of real contest results, if you don't enter all.

Roger Smith · August 2

Table of forecasts August 2024

FORECASTER __________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

hudsonvalley21 _________________+3.2 _ +2.9 _ +2.5 __ +2.4 _ +2.8 _ +3.1 __ +3.0 _ +2.1 _ +1.4

RJay ____________________________+3.0 _ +3.0 _ +2.7 __ +1.7 _ +2.0 _ +2.5 __ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.2

Tom ____________________________ +2.9 _ +2.8 _ +2.4 __ +1.9 _ +2.2 _ +2.2 __ +2.5 _ +1.9 _ +0.6

BKViking ________________________+2.4 _ +2.8 _ +2.8 __ +1.3 _ +1.5 _ +2.2 __ +1.2 _ +1.7 _ +1.0

wxallannj ________________________+2.2 _ +2.1 _ +1.8 __ +0.6 _ +2.2 _ +1.8 __ +1.8 _ +2.0 _ +2.7

wxdude64 ______________________ +2.2 _ +2.1 _ +1.8 __ +0.6 _ +0.3 _ +0.2 __ -0.5 _ +0.6 _ +1.8

Scotty Lightning _________________+2.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.0 __ +1.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.5 __ +1.0 _ +2.0 _ +0.5

____ Consensus ________________ +2.0 _ +1.6 _ +1.8 __ +1.1 __+1.6 _ +1.7___ +1.8 _ +2.0 _ +1.8

so_whats_happening ____________ +1.7 _ +1.6 _ +1.9 __ +1.1 __+1.6 _ +1.1 ___ +1.8 _ +2.0 _ +3.2

DonSutherland1 _________________ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 __ +1.2 _ +1.1 __ +0.4 __ +2.7 _ +2.8 _ +2.9

StormchaserChuck1 ____________ +1.4 _ +1.5 _ +1.2 __ +0.1 _ +0.9 _ +1.1 ___ +0.8 _ +2.2 _ +2.0

Roger Smith ____________________ +1.2 _ +1.2 _ +1.4 __ +1.4 _ +1.6 _ +1.7 ___ +2.3 _ +4.0 _ +2.0

rainsucks ____ (-1%) ____________ +1.0 _ +1.2 _ +1.4 ___ 0.0 _ +1.7 _ +0.9 __ +1.8 _ +3.0 _ +2.2

____ Normal ______________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

RodneyS ________________________ -0.1 _ +0.2 _ +0.1 ___ -0.8 _ -0.1 _ -0.5 ___ +1.3 _ +0.7 _ +1.5

Persistence _ (July 2024) ______________+2.7 _ +2.1 _ +1.9 _____ -0.4 _ +1.5 _ -1.0 ______ +0.6 _ +5.6 _ +2.7

====================================

Color coding for warmest and coldest forecasts. Normal is coldest for NYC, BOS, PHX, and SEA.

bkviking · August 3

On 8/2/2024 at 4:11 AM, Roger Smith said:

Late penalties are fairly lenient now in contest, apologies to BKViking as I was very late getting to table of forecasts in July and did not realize until too late no entry was received, I probably would send a request if I was not so late on task. Anyway, take pro-rated scores as better indication of real contest results, if you don't enter all.

Thanks Roger.

Scotty Lightning · August 11

On 8/2/2024 at 4:11 AM, Roger Smith said:

Late penalties are fairly lenient now in contest, apologies to BKViking as I was very late getting to table of forecasts in July and did not realize until too late no entry was received, I probably would send a request if I was not so late on task. Anyway, take pro-rated scores as better indication of real contest results, if you don't enter all.

I feel we should all get a "mulligan" month; if we miss a month or have a low monthly score maybe it can be "erased"? Just a thought.

Roger Smith · August 11

Similar contests elsewhere have scoring formats like that, best 10 of 12 in one case, and a points structure that includes average score as well as total score (but only applies to entrants who miss fewer than three of twelve) in another. It often ends up being a very similar top ten to raw score alone, but one or even two bad scores won't sink your chances. Anyway, I inherited an all-12 total score format when I took over contest scoring around 2012. So we've never had a discussion of it, perhaps some people did before I came along.

But personally I like the total score of all contests idea, even though I a pretty certain I would be in a better rank if we went best 10 or even 11 out of 12. As a pro forecaster, you know you are judged (or recalled) by the worst of your forecasts, and that's a reality of the forecast business (I am not technically a pro forecaster although people follow my forecasts a lot in Ireland and UK). For BKV who could end up entering 11/12, we could add a reasonable low score but I think the pro-rated adjustment (adding one average score in that case) is a good way to judge "real" ranking, and as there's no awards or prizes involved, that's probably good enough.

Roger Smith · August 18

/Anomalies and projections ...

________________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

__ (anom 1-17) ______________ +1.0 __ 0.0 _ +0.6 __ -0.1 _ +2.6 _ +2.2 ____ +1.5 _ +5.3 _ +0.4

__ (p anom 1-31) _____________+0.5 _ -0.5 _ -0.5 __ +0.5 _ +1.5 _ +2.5 ____ +2.5 _ +4.0 __-1.0

__ Final anoms _______________ -0.1 _ -1.0 _ -0.7 __ +1.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.4 ____ +2.7 _ +4.4 __-0.6*

* SEA adjusted -0.8 to -0.6 for msg data, no scores were differently adjusted as lowest forecast is +0.5.

Previous estimates were adjusted on 08-29.

Roger Smith · August 22

Seasonal max contest _ scoring update

... new high for ORD (99 F)

(a) Forecasts

FORECASTER ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ORD _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA

Scotty Lightning __________ 103 _ 100 __ 98 ____96 __ 104 _ 118 ____ 100 _ 121 __ 92

wxdude64 ________________ 102 _ 102 _ 102 ___ 101 __ 101 _ 106 ____ 104 _ 118 __ 98

Roger Smith _______________102 _ 100 _ 100 ____101 __ 101 _ 109 ____ 104 _ 119 __ 97

rainsucks __________________102 _ 100 __ 99 ___ 104 __ 102 _ 107 ____ 104 _ 120 __99

hudsonvalley21 ___________ 101 _ 101 __ 99 ____ 95 ___ 98 _ 103 ____ 100 _ 119 __ 98

Rhino16 ____________________101 _ 100 __ 99 ___ 102 __ 102 _ 106 ____ 100 _ 115 __ 98

___ Consensus ___________ 101 _ 100 __ 99 ____99 __ 101 _ 106 ____ 100 _ 119 __ 97

DonSutherland1 ___________ 101 _ 100 __ 98 ____ 96 ___ 97 _ 104 ____ 101 _ 118 __ 97

Tom _______________________ 101 __ 98 __ 98 ____ 99 ___102 _ 106 _____ 99 _ 118 __ 96

RJay _______________________100 __ 98 _ 100 ___ 100 __ 101 _ 105 ____ 100 _ 119 __ 95

so_whats_happening ______100 __ 98 __100 ____ 97 ___ 99 _ 102 ______98 _ 119 __ 97

RodneyS ___________________99 __ 99 __ 97 _____ 96 ___ 97 _ 102 _____ 99 _ 118 __ 97

wxallannj __________________98 __ 98 __ 96 _____ 99 ___ 97 _ 102 _____101 _ 120 __ 95

__ max to date (Aug 27) __104 _ 95 __ 98 _____ 99 __ 100 __102 _____102 _ 118 _ 98

(b) Errors to date

underlined-italic errors are subject to increase as values so far are above forecast. Sum of "accumulated non-reversible error" appears after error totals.

Current ranks are now listed.

rank _FORECASTER ____________DCA_NYC_BOS__ORD_ATL_IAH__DEN_PHX_SEA ___ TOTAL ___ Acc n-rev err

1 __ Tom _______________________ 3 __ 3 __ 0 ____ 0 __ 2 __4 ___ 3 __ 0 __ 2 _____17 ______(8)

t2 __ DonSutherland1 ___________ 3 __ 5 __ 0 ____ 3 __ 3 __ 2 ___ 1 __ 0 __ 1 _____18 ______(11)

t2 __ so_whats_happening ______ 4 __ 3 __ 2 ____ 2 __ 1 __ 0 ____ 4 __ 1 __ 1 ____18 ______(12)

t2 ______ Consensus ___________ 3 __ 5 __ 1 ____ 0 __ 1 __ 4 ___ 2 __ 1 __ 1 _____ 18 ______(6)

t4 __ RodneyS ___________________5 __ 4 __ 1 ____ 3 __ 3 __ 0 ____ 3 __ 0__ 1 ____20 ______(16)

t4 __ hudsonvalley21 ___________ 3 __ 6 __ 1 ____ 4 __ 2 __ 1 ____ 2 __ 1 __ 0 _____20 ______(11)

t4 __ RJay_______________________ 4 __ 3 __ 2 ____ 1 __ 1 __ 3 ___ 2 __ 1 __ 3 _____ 20 ______(9)

t4 __ wxallannj___________________6 __ 3 __ 2 ____ 0 __ 3 __ 0 ___ 1 __ 2__ 3 _____ 20 ______(15)

8 __ wxdude64 ________________ 2 __ 7 __ 4 ____ 2 __ 1 __ 4 ___ 2 __ 0 __0 _____ 22 _______(2)

t9 __ Rhino16 ___________________ 3 __ 5 __ 1 ____ 3 __ 2 __ 4 ___ 2 __3 __ 0______ 23 _______(8)

t9 __ Roger Smith ______________ 2 __ 5 __ 2 ____ 2 __ 1 __ 7 ___ 2 __ 1 __ 1 _____ 23 _______ (3)

11 __ rainsucks _________________ 2 __ 5 __ 1 ____ 5 __ 2 __ 5 ___ 2 __ 2 __1 ______ 25 _______ (2)

12 __ Scotty Lightning __________ 1 __ 5 __ 0 ____ 3 __ 4 __16 ___ 2 __ 3 __ 6 ____ 40 ______ (12)

===================================

Scoring will be updated whenever new data require, and table will eventually be moved to Sep contest.

(99 ORD Aug 27)

Roger Smith · August 23

Final scoring for August 2024

FORECASTER __________________DCA_NYC_BOS __ east __ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__ c/e ___ DEN_PHX_SEA__west ____ TOTAL

Roger Smith _____________________74 _ 56 _ 58 __ 188 __ 92 _ 92 _ 86 __ 270 _ 458 __ 92 _ 94 _48 __ 234 ____692

Scotty Lightning ________________ 58 _ 50 _ 66 __ 174 __100 _100_ 98 __298 _ 472__ 66 _ 54 _ 78 __ 198 ____670

rainsucks ____ (-1%) ____________ 77*_55*_57*__ 189 __ 79*_93*_69*__241 _ 430 __ 81*_73*_44 __198 ____ 628

____ Consensus ________________ 58 _ 48 _ 50 __ 156 __ 98 _ 92 _ 86 __ 276 _ 432 __82 _ 54 _ 52 __ 188 ____620

DonSutherland1 _________________ 68 _ 50 _ 56 __ 174 __ 96 _ 82 _ 60 __ 238 _ 412 __100_ 70 _ 30 __ 200 ____612

____ Normal _____________________ 98 _ 80 _ 86 __ 264 __ 80 _ 60 _ 52 __ 192 _ 456 __46 _ 14 _88 __ 148 ____ 604

Tom _____________________________40 _ 24 _ 38 __ 102 __ 82 _ 96 _ 96 __ 274 _ 376__ 96 _ 52 _ 76 __ 224 ____ 600

wxallannj ________________________54 _ 38 _ 50 __ 142 __ 92 _ 96 _ 88 __ 276 _ 418 __82 _ 54 _ 34 __ 170 ____ 588

so_whats_happening ____________64 _ 48 _ 48 __ 160 __ 98 _ 92 _ 74 __ 264 _ 424 __82 _ 54 _ 24 __ 160 ____ 584

StormchaserChuck1 _____________70 _ 50 _ 62 __ 182 __ 82 _ 78 _ 74 __ 234 _ 416 __ 62 _ 58 _ 48 __ 168 ____ 584

RodneyS ________________________100 _ 76 _ 84 __ 260 __ 64 _ 58 _42 __ 164 _ 424 __ 72 _ 28 _ 58 __ 158 ____ 582

BKViking ________________________50 _ 24 _ 30 __ 104 __ 94 _ 90 _ 96 __ 280 _ 384 __70 _ 48 _ 68 __ 186 ____ 570

RJay ____________________________38 _ 20 _ 32 __ 090 __ 86 _100_ 98 __ 288 _ 378 __76 _ 44 _ 64 __ 184 ____ 562

hudsonvalley21 _________________34 _ 22 _ 36 __ 092 __ 72 _ 84 _ 86 __ 242 _ 334 __ 94_ 56 _ 60 __ 210 ____ 544

wxdude64 ______________________ 54 _ 38 _ 50 __ 142 __ 92 _ 66 _ 56 __ 214 _ 356 __ 36 _ 26 _ 52 __ 114 ____ 470

Persistence _ (July 2024) _______ 44 _ 38 _ 48 __ 130 __ 72 _ 90 _ 32 __ 194 _ 324 __ 58 _ 74 _ 34 __ 166 ____ 490

====================================

Extreme forecast report

DCA, NYC, BOS, SEA _ Coldest forecasts are all high scores. RodneyS takes three (DCA, NYC, BOS) and Scotty L takes one (SEA). Normal also wins for all except DCA, being closer to outcomes.

DEN is a win for Don S (+2.7) and a loss for hudsonvalley21 (warmest +3.0).

PHX is a win for Roger S (warmest +4.0)

IAH is a win for RJay and Scotty L (+2.5) and a loss for hudsonvalley21 (+3.1).

ORD, ATL no extreme forecast.

(forecasts)