Chester County PA - Analytical Battle of Actual vs. Altered Climate Data

[ChescoWx]

Chill the past and warm the recent and you get the results you need to see

[chubbs]

1 hour ago, ChescoWx said:

Fake data - there is no Coatesville data after 2007 . Plus look at all those NOAA Adjustments - cooling the past and warming the nearer years......Only looks like much warming if you make up station data and adjust the past!!

Nope. The plot is raw data from three Coatesville stations,  the two coops and the Coatesville Airport since 2007. The Coatesville stations are different but well matched.  I could have used your house instead of the airport and the plot wouldn't have changed much.

Your criticism of NOAA is just a denier strawman. No data has been changed, made up, altered, or chilled. The truth is exactly the opposite. NOAA has isolated the real Chesco climate trend from all the station and network changes. The evidence is overwhelming. All the datasets that have a long record of consistent data agree with NOAA. 

[ChescoWx]

The data was indeed changed. altered and clearly chilled. The trend lines speak volumes. Without post hoc adjustments clear cooling with those adjustments clear warming.

[chubbs]

20 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

The data was indeed changed. altered and clearly chilled. The trend lines speak volumes. Without post hoc adjustments clear cooling with those adjustments clear warming.

Nope again. The difference in the trend-lines is mainly due to the Coatesville post-war move.

 

In comparison West Chester closely matches NOAA with no cooling. How many times do we have to go over the same material showing that the raw Chesco data is contaminated by station moves and other non-climate related changes.

[ChescoWx]

1 hour ago, chubbs said:

Nope again. The difference in the trend-lines is mainly due to the Coatesville post-war move.

In comparison West Chester closely matches NOAA with no cooling. How many times do we have to go over the same material showing that the raw Chesco data is contaminated by station moves and other non-climate related changes.

 

Let's look at just West Chester. With the altered data NCEI does try to show clear warming. However, yet again (like Coatesville) NCEI chose to chill each and every year at West Chester for 103 straight years from 1880 thru 1982. So why did NCEI choose yet another station to chill to a level below any actual real observation in the county? Without that chilling West Chester shows almost no warming at all! Facts always win out!

 

[chubbs]

5 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

Let's look at just West Chester. With the altered data NCEI does try to show clear warming. However, yet again (like Coatesville) NCEI chose to chill each and every year at West Chester for 103 straight years from 1880 thru 1982. So why did NCEI choose yet another station to chill to a level below any actual real observation in the county? Without that chilling West Chester shows almost no warming at all! Facts always win out!

 

If you account for the 1970 West Chester move, NCEI is spot on. West Chester and Coatesville cooled at different times: Coatesville after the war and West Chester in 1970. Station moves not weather.  Agree that facts always win out, but you can't pick and choose.

[ChescoWx]

18 hours ago, chubbs said:

If you account for the 1970 West Chester move, NCEI is spot on. West Chester and Coatesville cooled at different times: Coatesville after the war and West Chester in 1970. Station moves not weather.  Agree that facts always win out, but you can't pick and choose.

As always ignore and fail to show any support for 103 straight years of real actual data altering by cooling to a temperature often lower than any actual station ever recorded and only highlight a 3 year period.....

[chubbs]

21 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

As always ignore and fail to show any support for 103 straight years of real actual data altering by cooling to a temperature often lower than any actual station ever recorded and only highlight a 3 year period.....

Nope. Of course I see that the older stations are warmer than NOAA. Perfectly understandable to me. The old Chesco stations are in warm locations. Before the 1970 move, West Chester was as warm as Wilmington. Why would anyone expect the Chester County average to be as warm as Wilmington?

[ChescoWx]

2 hours ago, chubbs said:

Nope. Of course I see that the older stations are warmer than NOAA. Perfectly understandable to me. The old Chesco stations are in warm locations. Before the 1970 move, West Chester was as warm as Wilmington. Why would anyone expect the Chester County average to be as warm as Wilmington?

Funny how you again only cherry pick one station......again the entire county was chilled and altered to average temperature levels that almost no stations in the entire county ever recorded for 80 to 100 years.

[chubbs]

21 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

Funny how you again only cherry pick one station......again the entire county was chilled and altered to average temperature levels that almost no stations in the entire county ever recorded for 80 to 100 years.

Surprised that you aren't more familiar with the station data or histories. West Chester is very representative of the early Chesco coops. Similar in temperature  to Coatesville pre-move, Sadsburyville, and Kennett Square, and cooler than Phoenixville. Looks like Sadsburyville is in also in a town, like the early Coatesville and West Chester stations.  

The 1948 Coatesville station is the first county station that is more representative of the county as a whole; and, NOAA matches it well. You can't understand the county climate history without studying the station network and how it has changed with time.  Among other changes, there is a reverse heat-island effect in the Chesco stations as people and stations moved out of towns to more rural locations. 

[ChescoWx]

2 hours ago, chubbs said:

Surprised that you aren't more familiar with the station data or histories. West Chester is very representative of the early Chesco coops. Similar in temperature  to Coatesville pre-move, Sadsburyville, and Kennett Square, and cooler than Phoenixville. Looks like Sadsburyville is in also in a town, like the early Coatesville and West Chester stations.  

The 1948 Coatesville station is the first county station that is more representative of the county as a whole; and, NOAA matches it well. You can't understand the county climate history without studying the station network and how it has changed with time.  Among other changes, there is a reverse heat-island effect in the Chesco stations as people and stations moved out of towns to more rural locations. 

Of course still no answer for chilling to levels going below any actual real observations across the entire County.....Not one station was accurate for up to 100 years? So after the fact we chill every single one of them??

[ChescoWx]

March - April - May Average Temperature Trends Raw Unaltered Data 1893 to Present - Near steady March and slight warming April with cooling in May.....

[chubbs]

21 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

Of course still no answer for chilling to levels going below any actual real observations across the entire County.....Not one station was accurate for up to 100 years? So after the fact we chill every single one of them??

Nope again, I have provided the answer umpteen times. The stations that you complain about are in WARM locations. Warmer than the county as a whole. Its not accuracy; its location, location, location. Simple as that and the evidence is overwhelming. All you have to do is look at a map and land-use near the stations.

The raw temperature data confirms the warmth of early measurement sites. The early stations are about as warm Wilmington, Philadelphia or the Newark ag station. As soon as the Coatesville and West Chester moved to cooler locations, more representative of the county as a whole, NOAA matched them closely.

[chubbs]

20 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

March - April - May Average Temperature Trends Raw Unaltered Data 1893 to Present - Near steady March and slight warming April with cooling in May.....

 

Raw data from West Chester and Coatesville shows March has warmed significantly in Chester County. I'm sure April and May have similar amounts of warming. The evidence is overwhelming that our county has warmed significantly.

 

[ChescoWx]

On 4/12/2025 at 6:35 AM, chubbs said:

 

Raw data from West Chester and Coatesville shows March has warmed significantly in Chester County. I'm sure April and May have similar amounts of warming. The evidence is overwhelming that our county has warmed significantly.

 

The Actual Data taken within the County before alteration and adjustments says we have far from warmed significantly in any of those months....and have in fact cooled in May

[chubbs]

22 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

The Actual Data taken within the County before alteration and adjustments says we have far from warmed significantly in any of those months....and have in fact cooled in May

Nope. You don't know what the raw data shows. The raw data from West Chester and Coatesville shows warming in May. Not as much warming as March, but warming nonetheless. West Chester and Coatesville both have long periods where station changes were minor allowing the true climate trend to be determined.

 

[ChescoWx]

1 hour ago, chubbs said:

Nope. You don't know what the raw data shows. The raw data from West Chester and Coatesville shows warming in May. Not as much warming as March, but warming nonetheless. West Chester and Coatesville both have long periods where station changes were minor allowing the true climate trend to be determined.

 

 

Charlie fortunately we have the actual data for ALL of the stations not just West Chester and Coatesville. As we can all see clearly below without the post hoc adjustments to chill the past and warm the present (see how the lines cross in the early 90's) we clearly see the actual raw data for May (blue) is cooling while only the altered (blue) artificial data indicates warming.

[chubbs]

20 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

Charlie fortunately we have the actual data for ALL of the stations not just West Chester and Coatesville. As we can all see clearly below without the post hoc adjustments to chill the past and warm the present (see how the lines cross in the early 90's) we clearly see the actual raw data for May (blue) is cooling while only the altered (blue) artificial data indicates warming.

You aren't showing any station data though. Zero. Just your network averages that are contaminated with station moves and network changes. If you want to argue that the other stations refute West Chester and Coatesville, show the actual raw station data. Good luck, because the other long-term station, Phoenixville, also shows slight warming.

West Chester and Coatesville are the only Chesco stations with multi-decade periods with no significant station changes, during those periods the raw data is only responding to weather. We have had one set of weather in Chester County, that is well depicted by West Chester and Coatesville raw data and NOAA. The other stations don't show anything different.

[ChescoWx]

On 4/15/2025 at 8:36 PM, chubbs said:

You aren't showing any station data though. Zero. Just your network averages that are contaminated with station moves and network changes. If you want to argue that the other stations refute West Chester and Coatesville, show the actual raw station data. Good luck, because the other long-term station, Phoenixville, also shows slight warming.

West Chester and Coatesville are the only Chesco stations with multi-decade periods with no significant station changes, during those periods the raw data is only responding to weather. We have had one set of weather in Chester County, that is well depicted by West Chester and Coatesville raw data and NOAA. The other stations don't show anything different.

But of course Charlie they do!! See below both Coatesville and West Chester show clear cooling while Phoenixville shows only very slight warming....actual facts vs. altered alternative facts!!!! The majority of stations with long term data are indeed cooling during May in Chester County PA!!

[ChescoWx]

As we head toward May will our historical cooling trend continue? Below is the 3 longest running Chester County NWS Locations for May since 1893

[chubbs]

18 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

But of course Charlie they do!! See below both Coatesville and West Chester show clear cooling while Phoenixville shows only very slight warming....actual facts vs. altered alternative facts!!!! The majority of stations with long term data are indeed cooling during May in Chester County PA!!

Your being confused by station moves. We've been over the importance of West Chester and Coatesville station moves a zillion times. The moves were large enough to obscure the real climate trend. As shown upthread, without the station moves there is no cooling at West Chester or Coatesville.

Here's another way to remove the station moves: plot the before and after move data separately.  Without the confusion of the station moves, West Chester and Coatesville are in good agreement on our local weather. Before the station moves, May temperatures were close to 62F at the two stations. After the moves they had cooled to 60F. The trend lines for West Chester and Coatesville both before and after the station moves are almost the same. There is no change in temperature before the station moves; and, warming after the station moves. Further confirmation that West Chester and Coatesville have warmed in May. 

The effect of the station moves is easily seen by comparing the regression lines around the time of the moves. Immediately before the station moves, May temperatures were close to 62F at the two stations. After the moves they had cooled to 60F.

This example shows the value of bias-adjustment. As Coatesville and West Chester demonstrate, the raw data from a single station can be misleading when there are major station changes. This isn't rocket science. Knowing the station histories, it is easy for me to remove the station moves and get a more accurate climate trend that is close to NOAA. You could do the same.

[ChescoWx]

3 hours ago, chubbs said:

Fixed!

"large enough to obscure the real actual climate trend." "As shown , it is easy for me to remove the station moves and get a more accurate adjusted climate trend that is close to altered adjusted NOAA revamped history.