Chester County PA - Analytical Battle of Actual vs. Altered Climate Data

[ChescoWx]

Chill the past and warm the recent and you get the results you need to see

[chubbs]

1 hour ago, ChescoWx said:

Fake data - there is no Coatesville data after 2007 . Plus look at all those NOAA Adjustments - cooling the past and warming the nearer years......Only looks like much warming if you make up station data and adjust the past!!

Nope. The plot is raw data from three Coatesville stations,  the two coops and the Coatesville Airport since 2007. The Coatesville stations are different but well matched.  I could have used your house instead of the airport and the plot wouldn't have changed much.

Your criticism of NOAA is just a denier strawman. No data has been changed, made up, altered, or chilled. The truth is exactly the opposite. NOAA has isolated the real Chesco climate trend from all the station and network changes. The evidence is overwhelming. All the datasets that have a long record of consistent data agree with NOAA. 

[ChescoWx]

The data was indeed changed. altered and clearly chilled. The trend lines speak volumes. Without post hoc adjustments clear cooling with those adjustments clear warming.

[chubbs]

20 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

The data was indeed changed. altered and clearly chilled. The trend lines speak volumes. Without post hoc adjustments clear cooling with those adjustments clear warming.

Nope again. The difference in the trend-lines is mainly due to the Coatesville post-war move.

 

In comparison West Chester closely matches NOAA with no cooling. How many times do we have to go over the same material showing that the raw Chesco data is contaminated by station moves and other non-climate related changes.

[ChescoWx]

1 hour ago, chubbs said:

Nope again. The difference in the trend-lines is mainly due to the Coatesville post-war move.

In comparison West Chester closely matches NOAA with no cooling. How many times do we have to go over the same material showing that the raw Chesco data is contaminated by station moves and other non-climate related changes.

 

Let's look at just West Chester. With the altered data NCEI does try to show clear warming. However, yet again (like Coatesville) NCEI chose to chill each and every year at West Chester for 103 straight years from 1880 thru 1982. So why did NCEI choose yet another station to chill to a level below any actual real observation in the county? Without that chilling West Chester shows almost no warming at all! Facts always win out!

 

[chubbs]

5 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

Let's look at just West Chester. With the altered data NCEI does try to show clear warming. However, yet again (like Coatesville) NCEI chose to chill each and every year at West Chester for 103 straight years from 1880 thru 1982. So why did NCEI choose yet another station to chill to a level below any actual real observation in the county? Without that chilling West Chester shows almost no warming at all! Facts always win out!

 

If you account for the 1970 West Chester move, NCEI is spot on. West Chester and Coatesville cooled at different times: Coatesville after the war and West Chester in 1970. Station moves not weather.  Agree that facts always win out, but you can't pick and choose.

[ChescoWx]

18 hours ago, chubbs said:

If you account for the 1970 West Chester move, NCEI is spot on. West Chester and Coatesville cooled at different times: Coatesville after the war and West Chester in 1970. Station moves not weather.  Agree that facts always win out, but you can't pick and choose.

As always ignore and fail to show any support for 103 straight years of real actual data altering by cooling to a temperature often lower than any actual station ever recorded and only highlight a 3 year period.....

[chubbs]

21 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

As always ignore and fail to show any support for 103 straight years of real actual data altering by cooling to a temperature often lower than any actual station ever recorded and only highlight a 3 year period.....

Nope. Of course I see that the older stations are warmer than NOAA. Perfectly understandable to me. The old Chesco stations are in warm locations. Before the 1970 move, West Chester was as warm as Wilmington. Why would anyone expect the Chester County average to be as warm as Wilmington?

[ChescoWx]

2 hours ago, chubbs said:

Nope. Of course I see that the older stations are warmer than NOAA. Perfectly understandable to me. The old Chesco stations are in warm locations. Before the 1970 move, West Chester was as warm as Wilmington. Why would anyone expect the Chester County average to be as warm as Wilmington?

Funny how you again only cherry pick one station......again the entire county was chilled and altered to average temperature levels that almost no stations in the entire county ever recorded for 80 to 100 years.

[chubbs]

21 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

Funny how you again only cherry pick one station......again the entire county was chilled and altered to average temperature levels that almost no stations in the entire county ever recorded for 80 to 100 years.

Surprised that you aren't more familiar with the station data or histories. West Chester is very representative of the early Chesco coops. Similar in temperature  to Coatesville pre-move, Sadsburyville, and Kennett Square, and cooler than Phoenixville. Looks like Sadsburyville is in also in a town, like the early Coatesville and West Chester stations.  

The 1948 Coatesville station is the first county station that is more representative of the county as a whole; and, NOAA matches it well. You can't understand the county climate history without studying the station network and how it has changed with time.  Among other changes, there is a reverse heat-island effect in the Chesco stations as people and stations moved out of towns to more rural locations. 

[ChescoWx]

2 hours ago, chubbs said:

Surprised that you aren't more familiar with the station data or histories. West Chester is very representative of the early Chesco coops. Similar in temperature  to Coatesville pre-move, Sadsburyville, and Kennett Square, and cooler than Phoenixville. Looks like Sadsburyville is in also in a town, like the early Coatesville and West Chester stations.  

The 1948 Coatesville station is the first county station that is more representative of the county as a whole; and, NOAA matches it well. You can't understand the county climate history without studying the station network and how it has changed with time.  Among other changes, there is a reverse heat-island effect in the Chesco stations as people and stations moved out of towns to more rural locations. 

Of course still no answer for chilling to levels going below any actual real observations across the entire County.....Not one station was accurate for up to 100 years? So after the fact we chill every single one of them??

[ChescoWx]

March - April - May Average Temperature Trends Raw Unaltered Data 1893 to Present - Near steady March and slight warming April with cooling in May.....

[chubbs]

21 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

Of course still no answer for chilling to levels going below any actual real observations across the entire County.....Not one station was accurate for up to 100 years? So after the fact we chill every single one of them??

Nope again, I have provided the answer umpteen times. The stations that you complain about are in WARM locations. Warmer than the county as a whole. Its not accuracy; its location, location, location. Simple as that and the evidence is overwhelming. All you have to do is look at a map and land-use near the stations.

The raw temperature data confirms the warmth of early measurement sites. The early stations are about as warm Wilmington, Philadelphia or the Newark ag station. As soon as the Coatesville and West Chester moved to cooler locations, more representative of the county as a whole, NOAA matched them closely.

[chubbs]

20 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

March - April - May Average Temperature Trends Raw Unaltered Data 1893 to Present - Near steady March and slight warming April with cooling in May.....

 

Raw data from West Chester and Coatesville shows March has warmed significantly in Chester County. I'm sure April and May have similar amounts of warming. The evidence is overwhelming that our county has warmed significantly.

 

[ChescoWx]

On 4/12/2025 at 6:35 AM, chubbs said:

 

Raw data from West Chester and Coatesville shows March has warmed significantly in Chester County. I'm sure April and May have similar amounts of warming. The evidence is overwhelming that our county has warmed significantly.

 

The Actual Data taken within the County before alteration and adjustments says we have far from warmed significantly in any of those months....and have in fact cooled in May