Beryl remnants heavy rain threat 7/9-7/11

[Chicago Storm]

One thing we have learned following the evolution of Beryl the past week or so. The Euro is hot garbage.

6Z run jumped well SE today, and it's going to badly bust short term.

[Stevo6899]

16 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said:

Ehh I’ll take the 1-3. I don’t feel like having to navigate Detroit with bad flooding just for work. Definitely don’t want to be swimming in southern Lake Michigan after all this rain.

Yea I am not rooting for heavy rain. Warmth and sun all day for me in the summer but it's cool once in awhile to see a system in the summer look sort of similar to a strong snowstorm on radar. Just looking at the weather.gov radar and the well defined deformation zone precip is getting me excited to track some winter storms.

[Stevo6899]

4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

One thing we have learned following the evolution of Beryl the past week or so. The Euro is hot garbage.

6Z run jumped well SE today, and it's going to badly bust short term.

I haven't been tracking beryl. Was the euro off with it in the Caribbean or more towards its landfall in texas? 12z ukie jumped a bit NW.

[A-L-E-K]

Quote

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1030 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

All eyes are on the remnants of tropical system Beryl with the
center of low pressure now pinwheeling steadily northeastward
across Arkansas. Ahead of it, numerous diffuse boundaries are
analyzed across our region, including a wavy quasistationary
front which stretches from near Valparaiso to Pontiac to Quincy,
and another one across SE Wisconsin and far northwest Illinois.
Aloft, additional confluence axes are noted in the 850-700 mb
layer which are forecast to drift northward towards the I-80
corridor through the afternoon. Finally, a lake breeze will also
develop across northeast Illinois.

A very moist airmass has pushed into the area, with PWATs
near 2 inches on latest objective analyses and the 12z Lincoln,
IL sounding, with a classic "tropical look" with deep saturation
and a relatively warm column characterized by near moist-
adiabatic lapse rates.

Arcs of slow-moving (nearly stationary) showers and the occasional
thunderstorm have developed along one of the aforementioned
surface boundaries in the vicinity of the Kankakee River. These
exhibit classic low-echo centroids, with pretty much all of the
45+ dBZ returns confined below the freezing level. We`ve noted
some localized rates nearing 1-2 inches per hour with these
cells on several personal weather stations.

While this set-up may not fit all of the definitions of a
Predecessor Rain Event, the dynamics/driving factors are the
same, with augmentations to the anticyclonically-arcing upper
jet from the incoming post-tropical low leading to an enhanced
reservoir of divergence aloft. As this enhanced lift interacts
with low-level boundaries, slow-moving showers/storms result.

Going forward, the main concern today will be on highly
localized corridors of heavy/torrential rainfall leading to
instances of flooding which will be tied to the aforementioned
boundaries. As such, we`re not concerned with a widespread
flood/flash flood threat through the balance of the day today,
but isolated rainfall amounts over 3-4 inches are certainly
plausible. While an occasional lightning strike is possible
today, widespread electrification appears unlikely given the
moist adiabatic profiles.

We`ll continue to assess incoming guidance as it relates to the
heavy rain and more widespread flood threat tonight with the
afternoon forecast package. There are also some hints in hires
output that winds may need to be nudged upwards, as well.

Carlaw

 

[sbnwx85]

Some areas already with 3+ inches of rain in southern Michigan.

[bowtie`]

0.58" here so far. Looks like the bigger numbers are going to be north and west of me. I am not greedy but I could use another inch on top of what I got already. Keeping my fingers crossed.

[SolidIcewx]

23 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

Some areas already with 3+ inches of rain in southern Michigan.

Yikes and it’s only just begun

[Baum]

Acting like a winter storm for my back yard. No doubt. Poured for a 15 minute stretch and now drying up right over my head.

[sbnwx85]

Rain totals have been held in check IMBY so far. Only about 1/3”. Some isolated areas are over 4” though and are already under Flood Warnings. Heavier rain is just starting. The low should deepen overnight bringing heavier rain and decent wind gusts into the morning. Might be the closest I get to a tropical cyclone in my life 

[Chicago Storm]

8 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

One thing we have learned following the evolution of Beryl the past week or so. The Euro is hot garbage.

6Z run jumped well SE today, and it's going to badly bust short term.

Hour about an hour 0z bust. 18z run looking horrid as well.

[cyclone77]

Had an ominous overcast all day but nary a drop of rain.

[KeenerWx]

Tad above 3.5" so far & looking rather likely that we'll get into the 4-5" range total for Beryl. Anyone know when the last time tropical remnants laid down a similar amount of precipitation in the LOT area so early in the hurricane season? 

[A-L-E-K]

Beautiful soak

[SolidIcewx]

Very interesting article about tropical rains and how radars have a tropical mode. https://www.mlive.com/weather/2024/07/why-beryls-rain-isnt-our-ordinary-michigan-rain.html

[Spartman]

Northern Indiana AFD

The remnants of Beryl continue shifting northeastward into the
eastern Great Lakes and eastern Ontario between today and this
evening. An area of low level f-gen banding paired with a low level
theta-e gradient in conjunction with large scale ascent on the
western periphery of the low pressure center serves as the main
forcing for the remaining rain this morning. This forcing coincides
with sfc dew points around 70F, 850 mb dew points between 10 and
15C, and PWATs dropping from above 2 inches overnight to around 1.75
inch today. This allows for an additional 0.5 inch to 3 inches in
the main rain band area north of US-24. 12.09 SPC HREF was still
showing LPMM 24 hr rainfall totals (a realistic potential high
end) of 3 to 7 inches in that swath which essentially runs from
start to end. Much lower QPF totals south of US-24 reach 0.25
inch at most as the dry slot begins to move in this morning
through today. Rivers have seen some impact from the rain with
rises observed and forecasts taking some Kankakee and St Joseph
basin rivers into action and minor flood stage heights. Some
initial reports in Berrien county had 3 to 5 inch totals as
early as 10pm last night.

Now, as the comma head begins to move away, a 6 hr pressure rise
area moves through the forecast area starting around 13 and moving
out around 21z or so this evening. At the same time, a negative
theta-e advection airmass in the form of both cold and dry advection
takes place midday into the afternoon. So the question becomes do we
clear out the clouds enough to start getting enough mixing into the
low level jet. With the comma head lingering over areas west of
IN-15 this morning am leery of clearing cloud cover too much
yet. We`re also missing that boundary like we have in the
spring/fall months to really get the isentropic down glide for a
wind advisory event that we`re used to. As such, gusts between
30 and 40 mph could become common with sporadic gusts to around
45 mph during this period. With how wet the ground is north of
US-24, could see sporadic wind damage reports from this as the
moist ground is loosened and trees topple over. Have handled
this with an SPS.

 

[A-L-E-K]

current band bringing the absolute goods to the north side right now

plus all the different motions on klot right now 

[SolidIcewx]

Really heavy rain band forming between Ann Arbor and Howell

[Stevo6899]

It's only down to 1002 mb but you can tell this is a different kinda system with how steady the wind is. I've felt less wind with sub 999mb systems. Also there's definitly more of a chill in the air which I find a little odd with it having tropical remnants.

[Stevo6899]

41 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said:

Really heavy rain band forming between Ann Arbor and Howell

Models were pretty dead on with the location of the heavy bands/qpf. A little surprised with all the flood advisories further east. Outside of a stationary pop up storm yest in central macomb, macomb/wayne haven't seen that much rain. Maybe 1.3 inch in 14 hours. We've seen way more with less advisories. Pretty Impressive with 5+ and still going just south of kalamazoo into N indiana.

[SolidIcewx]

8 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Models were pretty dead on with the location of the heavy bands/qpf. A little surprised with all the flood advisories further east. Outside of a stationary pop up storm yest in central macomb, macomb/wayne haven't seen that much rain. Maybe 1.3 inch in 14 hours. We've seen way more with less advisories. Pretty Impressive with 5+ and still going just south of kalamazoo into N indiana.

We will have the core before too long. The way the clouds are moving is pretty nuts. Chance of more pop up heavy showers as we go into the afternoon. I was just notified by my fiancé that it’s starting to flood by my house in canton.

[sbnwx85]

Up to 5.25” with a heavy band of rain still meandering about. The winds have been gusty at times. A little “wind damage” when the lawn chair blew over but Robyn says she’s confident we will rebuild. 

[Jonger]

5.66 and counting.

 

[A-L-E-K]

nice number there jon

[sbnwx85]

Storm total will end at 5.75”. Sun is starting to come out now.

[bowtie`]

And less than 100 miles south of you, I only had 1.39" in my tippy bucket.

[michsnowfreak]

After missing almost everything this summer, got soaked with 3.48" in a 20 hour period. DTW was dryslotted and only got 1.31"

[Chicago Storm]

The remnants of Beryl weren't too big of a deal around here, with a sharper gradient more-so across the southern metro.

ORD ended up with 0.61" of rain, while MDW had 1.17"

[Stebo]

20 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

After missing almost everything this summer, got soaked with 3.48" in a 20 hour period. DTW was dryslotted and only got 1.31"

DTW always finds a way to underperform.

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, Stebo said:

DTW always finds a way to underperform.

The "dry tongue" over DTW was very evident on radar. Just a shame such a robust system goes in the books as rather ordinary.

[Chinook]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

The "dry tongue" over DTW was very evident on radar. Just a shame such a robust system goes in the books as rather ordinary.

Toledo picked up quite a bit in  0400z-0900z and then got showers later. I think some of the models had predicted less than 1" just before the event, but  it was wetter than that.