aldie 22 Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 If this week ends up less than. 50 I'd suggest avoiding me for awhile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 6 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: [image] That area in the Atlantic where the max ridge is going to occur actually has a strong correlation to the following Winters NAO (warm SSTs there in the Summer lead +NAO Winters). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted July 10 Author Share Posted July 10 Know the western burbs are in trouble when we need the WB 18Z ICON to verify over the 18Z EURO inside 4 days for some decent rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrlg1181 Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 49 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Know the western burbs are in trouble when we need the WB 18Z ICON to verify over the 18Z EURO inside 4 days for some decent rain. Either way we loose out here in the Valley, I could probably do okay on the ICON since I'm near the western slopes... I might legitimately make it to 2 full months with 1.25 total.. Combined with this heat, wonder if the Shenandoah River could actually become a mere creek this summer or at least set all time records for low stream flow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: Know the western burbs are in trouble when we need the WB 18Z ICON to verify over the 18Z EURO inside 4 days for some decent rain. Yeah if we bust west of 95, then we are in deep trouble with this drought. I don’t know how much more of this my trees and garden can take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 55 minutes ago, Jrlg1181 said: Either way we loose out here in the Valley, I could probably do okay on the ICON since I'm near the western slopes... I might legitimately make it to 2 full months with 1.25 total.. Combined with this heat, wonder if the Shenandoah River could actually become a mere creek this summer or at least set all time records for low stream flow.. I think the Park Service has banned all fishing in the Shenandoah due to low water levels and high temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 GFS w more impressive heat next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 Low pressure at 500mb over Alaska always busts warm locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted July 10 Author Share Posted July 10 Brutal cutoff remains for weekend moisture WB 18Z EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrlg1181 Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: Brutal cutoff remains for weekend moisture WB 18Z EURO. Brutally awful for the Valley, upcoming miss on top of the miss this afternoon on top of basically every miss since middle of May... I would probably get some of the upslope in my yard from the spill over onto the western slopes which would be nice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: Brutal cutoff remains for weekend moisture WB 18Z EURO. I wouldn't complain about that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted July 11 Author Share Posted July 11 At OZ WB EURO has ticked west with heavier precipitation while 0Z GFS remains further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 The gfs can go straight to hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 12 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: The gfs can go straight to hell. 6z GFS came west i believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 17 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: 6z GFS came west i believe Good. Because .3 will NOT do crap up this way - need the 1"+ that the Euro has...badly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 27 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Good. Because .3 will NOT do crap up this way - need the 1"+ that the Euro has...badly. Of course the NAM just went east but i think you're safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 The NAM can go straight to hell. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 Just now, nw baltimore wx said: GFS looks better for metro areas. Good deal. Need this to back well to the west for all of our comforts and to get the Frederick and Loudon crews into the rain. Wish we could will it far enough west for the I-81 crew but that may be asking too much... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 3 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Good deal. Need this to back well to the west for all of our comforts and to get the Frederick and Loudon crews into the rain. Wish we could will it far enough west for the I-81 crew but that may be asking too much... It’s not really better but more realistic than the ridiculous cutoff it showed on earlier runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 Yeah 12z is west again, so the globals are pretty aligned with where the gradient will fall. Amounts are still variable though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFLETCHER Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 One would surmise that SE VA up to the Northern Neck of VA would see the most (2-4 inches). Along and just west of 95 should get a good soaking (1-2). Once you get into the western piedmont-maybe up to an inch or so. It will be interesting to watch how this all plays out tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted July 14 Author Share Posted July 14 WB 12Z EPS through the 28th. Maybe not as hot, moisture to the SE. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 Looks like the heat returns for a few days at the end of the month. DCA might do its record 8th 80+ low temp if the GEFS verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 20 Share Posted July 20 Hot pattern returns last few days of July and into the 1st week of August, per 00z GFS ensembles.. +EPO/+NAO building after about July 27.. could get really hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 21 Share Posted July 21 592-593dm ridge July 28-29, could make a run at 100. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 22 Share Posted July 22 The pattern from the last few days of July, through the 1st week of August is one where temps bust warmer than forecasted. 18z GEFS has a very strong +EPO during this time, it may even snow in northern Alaska. That is hot, hot down here. I know I'm sort of saying the same thing in the last few posts, but the +epo may last through Aug 10th, which is very atypical.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 23 Share Posted July 23 On 7/20/2024 at 2:49 AM, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Hot pattern returns last few days of July and into the 1st week of August, per 00z GFS ensembles.. +EPO/+NAO building after about July 27.. could get really hot. Yea we might run at 100 again. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 Models really overestimated the strength of the EPO and NAO in the medium range. This is a bias I have seen sometimes, they overdo pattern consistency in the MR/LR. It will still be in the 90s, but not record breaking like was looking possible before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 2 days around 100 after all. Don't underestimate the power of a +EPO to bust temps higher. This pattern changes in the next few days.. Models that had +EPO sticking until Aug 10th completely busted in this regard. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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