July Medium/ Long Range

[Weather Will]

Latest WB EURO weeklies through August 1. Wetter and seasonably warm.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Hopefully we'll match last July's thunderstorm season. 

It started June 24th last year. This year hasn't quite been the same so far. There has been a trend over the years for our severe weather to occur from the Spring to the Summer. I always contend that heat is our greatest variable. 

[Eskimo Joe]

17 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Hopefully we'll match last July's thunderstorm season. 

It started June 24th last year. This year hasn't quite been the same so far. There has been a trend over the years for our severe weather to occur from the Spring to the Summer. I always contend that heat is our greatest variable. 

This year has been a complete dud in the severe weather department. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Precip is suppose to be above normal for July. Let's see if we can get some good boomers.. I agree though, this season so far has sucked. Easily one of the worst. I've only seen distant CC lightning. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Also looking like a real nice heat ridge setting up on LR models for the end of July. 

CPC thinks we will start to see widespread drought by late Summer

[Terpeast]

9 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Also looking like a real nice heat ridge setting up on LR models for the end of July. 

CPC thinks we will start to see widespread drought by late Summer

The “flavor” of this summer has already revealed itself. 

It’s gonna be a long, hot and dry one. 
 

This morning’s LWX AFD if you read to the end:

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Ridging is forecast to persist over the northwest Atlantic Ocean
while broad troughing slowly drifts east over the central CONUS much
of next week. This pattern results in several weak surface fronts
drifting into the area and washing out, with daily low-end chances
for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon/evening. Without a more
obvious large scale feature, the prospects for any widespread
drought busting rainfall look rather slim.

[frd]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

The “flavor” of this summer has already revealed itself. 

It’s gonna be a long, hot and dry one. 
 

This morning’s LWX AFD if you read to the end:

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Ridging is forecast to persist over the northwest Atlantic Ocean
while broad troughing slowly drifts east over the central CONUS much
of next week. This pattern results in several weak surface fronts
drifting into the area and washing out, with daily low-end chances
for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon/evening. Without a more
obvious large scale feature, the prospects for any widespread
drought busting rainfall look rather slim.

Meanwhile the Atlantic continues to cook. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Data since 1948 shows it has a high probability of continuing through the Fall and Winter. 

In the CONUS, we are likely going to have a record warm Dec - July. I am waiting for the CDC to update the June map, but Dec-May looked like this: 

 

December to July analogs.. 30 top analogs:

So 30 analogs is 40% of the whole dataset, since 1948 (30/75), so realistically a "normal" signal rolled forward should be +1-2F max areas. But what history shows is a higher correlation going forward!

The following Fall (Sept-Nov)

 

December is the odd month

 

Then the following Winter (Jan-Mar). Remember this is a mix of 30 years. 30/75. Look at the scale

 

Whole period.. September through March, +3-4 anomalies for a 7-month span, covering 30-years and 40% of the total dataset!

[Eskimo Joe]

Calling it now. We get no snow this winter.

[dailylurker]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Calling it now. We get no snow this winter.

Yup. Lots of it. I love seeing forecast for "record warmth" lol

[RIC_WX]

If the tropics start cooking as expected, no way we don’t get in on that eventually.  May not save July but hard to see any drought seriously persisting beyond a few more weeks.

[Roger Ramjet]

29 minutes ago, RIC_WX said:

If the tropics start cooking as expected, no way we don’t get in on that eventually.  May not save July but hard to see any drought seriously persisting beyond a few more weeks.

I agree. What are we seeing for the remnants of Beryl? 

[IronTy]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Calling it now. We get no snow this winter.

Thats a real brave and contrarian call.  

[Terpeast]

Once Beryl clears out of the CONUS, ensembles are showing hints of the WAR/bermuda high re-flexing westward into the eastern seaboard. Hotter and possibly drier than normal conditions appear likely to continue as it has been. 

Beryl, and its remnants, seems to be the only chance we have for an area-wide drought buster in the extended. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

12z GEFS showing 601 to 602dm off the Northeast coast July 12. I bet that is record breaking.. 

[Weather Will]

Looks like two plumes of moisture to me.  Beryl's remnants head into the Great Lakes, but maybe it pulls up moisture off the Atlantic.  Unfortunately, someone is going to miss out between the two moistures surges.  TBD exactly where the dry slot sets up. WB 12Z EPS shows the possibilities.

[frd]

Interesting AFD by Mount Holly this morning. 

It appears the areas for heaviest rainfall is dependent on where the front may stall or slow. Including threat of a Maddox heavy rain event. 

Lastest guideance has broken the trend and has the front stall further West , so the heaviest rain is to the West. 

Here is the AFD:

 

Details:

Friday into Saturday...Remnant low of Beryl should be well north and
weakening/filling by the day time on Friday. However, the previously
mentioned cold front will be stalling near or over our region. In
the mid and upper levels, a trailing trough will be approaching our
region in this period. The biggest concern I have with this period
of the forecast is the potential for heavy rain. Not only will
precipitable water values remain high (as there will be minimal dry
air advection between Thursday and Friday), but this set up has many
similarities to a Maddox Synoptic heavy rain event. The front
should be stationary (or very slow moving), it has a favored
orientation for these types of events, and the winds from 700 to 300
mb should be nearly parallel to the front. This could set the stage
for training storms capable of heavy downpours.

The main question remaining in terms of the threat specifically to
our region is how close the front will get before stalling. Some of
the latest deterministic guidance shows it stalling further west,
limiting the risk in our region. However, this is a relatively new
trend over the past few model runs, and there remains some models
depicting the front stalling over our region.

Saturday night into Sunday...Front should dissipate, and flow aloft
should become mostly zonal. While I can`t rule out some additional
storm development, by this point it is unlikely we will see
widespread thunderstorm coverage. Another mid an upper level trough
could approach as early as late Sunday, but confidence in the timing
of that feature is low at this time.

 

 

 

[frd]

Overnight WPC thoughts on rainfall. 

 

[EastCoast NPZ]

15 minutes ago, frd said:

Overnight WPC thoughts on rainfall. 

 

And there is the northern valley precip min once again.

[CAPE]

6z GEFS and 0z EPS

[dailylurker]

I hope the latest GFS isn't right. It has a big precipitation hole right over central MD. Southern VA get swamped while we get pitty sprinkles and showers. I'm sure it will be totally different in 6 hours.

[frd]

 

WPC very bullish on Eastern Seaboard rainfall potential, then a massive shoft West of the WAR combining with the Western US high Pressure system. 

Looks very hot and tropical down the road. Also,  a noticeably rise in western Atlantic SSTs this morning, and looking for that to continue. Would imagine 80 degree F SST in the surf zone later in July. 

  

 

 

[MN Transplant]

7 hours ago, frd said:

Interesting AFD by Mount Holly this morning. 

It appears the areas for heaviest rainfall is dependent on where the front may stall or slow. Including threat of a Maddox heavy rain event. 

Lastest guideance has broken the trend and has the front stall further West , so the heaviest rain is to the West. 

Here is the AFD:

 

Details:

Friday into Saturday...Remnant low of Beryl should be well north and
weakening/filling by the day time on Friday. However, the previously
mentioned cold front will be stalling near or over our region. In
the mid and upper levels, a trailing trough will be approaching our
region in this period. The biggest concern I have with this period
of the forecast is the potential for heavy rain. Not only will
precipitable water values remain high (as there will be minimal dry
air advection between Thursday and Friday), but this set up has many
similarities to a Maddox Synoptic heavy rain event. The front
should be stationary (or very slow moving), it has a favored
orientation for these types of events, and the winds from 700 to 300
mb should be nearly parallel to the front. This could set the stage
for training storms capable of heavy downpours.

The main question remaining in terms of the threat specifically to
our region is how close the front will get before stalling. Some of
the latest deterministic guidance shows it stalling further west,
limiting the risk in our region. However, this is a relatively new
trend over the past few model runs, and there remains some models
depicting the front stalling over our region.

Saturday night into Sunday...Front should dissipate, and flow aloft
should become mostly zonal. While I can`t rule out some additional
storm development, by this point it is unlikely we will see
widespread thunderstorm coverage. Another mid an upper level trough
could approach as early as late Sunday, but confidence in the timing
of that feature is low at this time.

 

 

 

If anyone else needed to look up Maddox, here it is:  https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/60/2/1520-0477-60_2_115.xml

 

 

[WxUSAF]

GFS way less enthusiastic for late week rain and Euro has a brrrruuuutttaaalll gradient just west of 95.  

[aldie 22]

12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GFS way less enthusiastic for late week rain and Euro has a brrrruuuutttaaalll gradient just west of 95.  

Man ain't that some shit

[Terpeast]

36 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Man ain't that some shit

If this were winter... 

[MN Transplant]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

If this were winter... 

It would trend west and 95 would mix.

[Weather Will]

Yah, double middle finger for the western burbs....WB 12Z EURO

[Eskimo Joe]

On 7/7/2024 at 3:04 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

12z GEFS showing 601 to 602dm off the Northeast coast July 12. I bet that is record breaking.. 

[pazzo83]

13 hours ago, frd said:

Interesting AFD by Mount Holly this morning. 

It appears the areas for heaviest rainfall is dependent on where the front may stall or slow. Including threat of a Maddox heavy rain event. 

Lastest guideance has broken the trend and has the front stall further West , so the heaviest rain is to the West. 

Here is the AFD:

 

Details:

Friday into Saturday...Remnant low of Beryl should be well north and
weakening/filling by the day time on Friday. However, the previously
mentioned cold front will be stalling near or over our region. In
the mid and upper levels, a trailing trough will be approaching our
region in this period. The biggest concern I have with this period
of the forecast is the potential for heavy rain. Not only will
precipitable water values remain high (as there will be minimal dry
air advection between Thursday and Friday), but this set up has many
similarities to a Maddox Synoptic heavy rain event. The front
should be stationary (or very slow moving), it has a favored
orientation for these types of events, and the winds from 700 to 300
mb should be nearly parallel to the front. This could set the stage
for training storms capable of heavy downpours.

The main question remaining in terms of the threat specifically to
our region is how close the front will get before stalling. Some of
the latest deterministic guidance shows it stalling further west,
limiting the risk in our region. However, this is a relatively new
trend over the past few model runs, and there remains some models
depicting the front stalling over our region.

Saturday night into Sunday...Front should dissipate, and flow aloft
should become mostly zonal. While I can`t rule out some additional
storm development, by this point it is unlikely we will see
widespread thunderstorm coverage. Another mid an upper level trough
could approach as early as late Sunday, but confidence in the timing
of that feature is low at this time.

 

 

 

is a Maddox heavy rain event when the rain event throws a complete game in under 100 pitches?