donsutherland1 Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 In an increasingly hot world driven by anthropogenic climate change, Phoenix experienced its hottest June on record with a monthly mean temperature of 97.0°. What was most noticeable this month was the duration of sustained high heat, as was the case during that city’s record 31-day stretch of 110° or above high temperatures last year. Anthropogenic climate change is driving a warming of Phoenix's summers. It is making hot patterns hotter. Hot nights are amplified by the Urban Heat Island (UHI) Effect. Climate change is also increasing the persistence of hot patterns through wave resonance events. The observed global warming since the 1950s is unequivocal with anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, largely from the burning of fossil fuels, being the dominant driver of that warming. Phoenix’s full-year records go back to 1896. The first summer to average 95.0° or above occurred in 2013 (95.1°). Summer 2015 matched the 2013 record. Summer 2020, which set a record for most 100° days (145) set a new benchmark at 96.7°. Three years later, that mark was incinerated by a 97.1° average summer temperature. Since 1980, Phoenix’s summers have been warming at a rate of 0.9° per decade. June is also warming rapidly. The monthly mean temperature has increased 3.2° from the 1961-1990 period to the 1991-2020 period. June 2006 was the first June to attain a mean temperature of 94.0° or above (94.6°). That mark was then broken in 2013 (94.8°) and 2021 (95.3°). The 2021 record was demolished this year. Since 2015, six of the ten Junes have had a monthly mean temperature of 94.0° or above. Put another way, June heat that was once extraordinary is now on a path toward becoming normal. Select Highlights: Updates: Phoenix's warming summers Phoenix Experiences its Hottest Summer on Record 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 July appears to be off to a warm start as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: In an increasingly hot world driven by anthropogenic climate change, Phoenix experienced its hottest June on record with a monthly mean temperature of 97.0°. What was most noticeable this month was the duration of sustained high heat, as was the case during that city’s record 31-day stretch of 110° or above high temperatures last year. Anthropogenic climate change is driving a warming of Phoenix's summers. It is making hot patterns hotter. Hot nights are amplified by the Urban Heat Island (UHI) Effect. Climate change is also increasing the persistence of hot patterns through wave resonance events. The observed global warming since the 1950s is unequivocal with anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, largely from the burning of fossil fuels, being the dominant driver of that warming. Phoenix’s full-year records go back to 1896. The first summer to average 95.0° or above occurred in 2013 (95.1°). Summer 2015 matched the 2013 record. Summer 2020, which set a record for most 100° days (145) set a new benchmark at 96.7°. Three years later, that mark was incinerated by a 97.1° average summer temperature. Since 1980, Phoenix’s summers have been warming at a rate of 0.9° per decade. June is also warming rapidly. The monthly mean temperature has increased 3.2° from the 1961-1990 period to the 1991-2020 period. June 2006 was the first June to attain a mean temperature of 94.0° or above (94.6°). That mark was then broken in 2013 (94.8°) and 2021 (95.3°). The 2021 record was demolished this year. Since 2015, six of the ten Junes have had a monthly mean temperature of 94.0° or above. Put another way, June heat that was once extraordinary is now on a path toward becoming normal. Select Highlights: Bold above: Part and parcel in the synergistic heat wave phenomenon, which differentiates from seasonal heat wave climatology. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Has there been an overall increase in moisture seen over the SW, not necessarily rain but have dew points been higher in recent years to help really push these means higher? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 2 Author Share Posted July 2 4 hours ago, so_whats_happening said: Has there been an overall increase in moisture seen over the SW, not necessarily rain but have dew points been higher in recent years to help really push these means higher? No. Early evidence suggests that specific humidity has actually fallen in the U.S. Southwest: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Is it just me or did @ChescoWx's last post accidentally glitch out the "Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change" thread? The "submit reply" button will not work for me in that thread, and there's like a strange black box with part of his signature in it at the bottom of the thread. No idea what happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 26 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: Is it just me or did @ChescoWx's last post accidentally glitch out the "Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change" thread? The "submit reply" button will not work for me in that thread, and there's like a strange black box with part of his signature in it at the bottom of the thread. No idea what happened. I can no longer reply in that thread either. I thought it was just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 BTW...this seems like a reasonable thread to throw thoughts in for the heat wave that just started for California and the desert southwest. The official NWS forecast for Redding, CA is to tie the all-time high with the NBM giving them a 50% shot at exceeding it. The GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET all say that all-time record highs are going to be challenged up and down the California Central Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 20 minutes ago, bdgwx said: I can no longer reply in that thread either. I thought it was just me. Me either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 I broke the forum! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 I suspect the problem with the forum is what is always the right answer....climate change did it!!! It is so so scary the almighty power it has!!! LOL!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 The desert SW heat ridge continuum is truly phenomenal, and continues to increase as far as we can tell.. It's one of the places that has sustained new conditions over the last 30 years. I've always done research that showed conditions in the SW, US lead the eastern 1/2 of the US by months and years, depending what period of time you are looking at.. and I'm talking about anomalies. It's one of the "leading areas" in the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 According to the latest NBM forecast... Las Vegas, NV has a 40% chance of achieving a new all time high temperature on Tuesday. Redding, CA has a 60% chance of achieving a new all time high temperature on Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 And the NWS point forecast on the south side of Bad Water Basin at its lowest point in Death Valley is 132 F on Tuesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 On 7/2/2024 at 11:07 PM, ChescoWx said: I broke the forum! What’s your takeaway from the above headline? It seems that Phoenix has had quite the marked increase in temperatures as of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 24 minutes ago, Cobalt said: What’s your takeaway from the above headline? It seems that Phoenix has had quite the marked increase in temperatures as of late. It's simply called recent weather.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 Pacific ocean on the West coast has actually been colder than normal since 1999. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Pacific ocean on the West coast has actually been colder than normal since 1999. Chuck, Is that due to the strong -PDO that has dominated since the 2nd half of 1998? https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 Yes, it's due to the La Nina-like pattern that has dominated for the last 25 years. High pressure in the N. Pacific has kept the normally cold coastal waters cooler than average, although I'm surprised SSTs are actually below normal for that whole 25-year period, considering everything that has been happening globally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 Las Vegas hit 119 F breaking their all time record high. This is preliminary as additional warming may occur. I'll edit this post with the final high. Edit: 120 F is the updated high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 25 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: With a RH of a mere 3%/dewpoint of 16, the LV heat index is only ~106. Here in SE GA, whereas the hottest it has been so far this summer has been “only” in the upper 90s, the highest HI has been ~110! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 The final update for Las Vegas is 120 F. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 20 Author Share Posted July 20 On account of its warming climate, what was once a record-breaking summer prior to 2000 has become a routine summer today. The trendline for mean summer temperatures now exceeds the figure for the hottest summer on record prior to 2000. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted July 20 Share Posted July 20 2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: On account of its warming climate, what was once a record-breaking summer prior to 2000 has become a routine summer today. The trendline for mean summer temperatures now exceeds the figure for the hottest summer on record prior to 2000. The "future" is here in some locations. Future summers could regularly be hotter than the hottest on record | NCAR & UCAR News 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 20 Author Share Posted July 20 On 7/7/2024 at 8:13 PM, bdgwx said: The final update for Las Vegas is 120 F. Charts that illustrate Las Vegas' unprecedented extreme heat: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted July 20 Share Posted July 20 2 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: The "future" is here in some locations. Future summers could regularly be hotter than the hottest on record | NCAR & UCAR News I think this "future" is reality in a lot more places than we'd like to admit. Here's Washington, D.C. - 2024 obviously not done yet, but will almost certainly be in top 5, with decent chance for #1. 9 of top 10 since 2010, only 1 prior to 2000. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 20 Author Share Posted July 20 1 minute ago, TheClimateChanger said: The "future" is here in some locations. Future summers could regularly be hotter than the hottest on record | NCAR & UCAR News Yes. Phoenix has broken records for its hottest summer in 1981, 2007, 2013, 2020, and 2023. 2024 is on track to set a new record. A similar story holds true for Las Vegas, with summer records being set in 1994, 2007, 2016, 2017, and 2018. 2024 is also on track to become its hottest summer on record. We'll have to see if monsoonal moisture in August tempers the warmth enough to avoid setting new records. Even if it does, both cities will probably set new records before the decade is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted July 20 Share Posted July 20 2 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: I think this "future" is reality in a lot more places than we'd like to admit. Here's Washington, D.C. - 2024 obviously not done yet, but will almost certainly be in top 5, with decent chance for #1. 9 of top 10 since 2010, only 1 prior to 2000. Here's Hagerstown, Maryland for somewhere outside of the core urban area. Not much difference. 9 of top 11 since 2010. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 20 Share Posted July 20 45 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Charts that illustrate Las Vegas' unprecedented extreme heat: Don, Impressive, indeed! How much would you guess has the increased UHI been a factor? Metro LV now ~3 million, which is nearly double 2005 pop. It’s 10 x pop of 50 yrs ago. https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/cities/23043/las-vegas/population Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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