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July Banter 2024


George BM
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Forecast Discussion

Thursday, July 25, 2024 2:34PM EDT

Excessive Heat Warning in effect until 8PM EDT Thursday, July 25, 2024

PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect until 10PM EDT Thursday, July 25, 2024

Much of the region will finally see a decent amount of rain this afternoon and evening. The major caveat, however, is that it will come in the form of significantly severe thunderstorms with the threat of life-threatening hurricane-force wind gusts, large hail and a few tornadoes.

A record hot and moist airmass remains in place ahead of the SSE advancing cold front with temps generally between 102 and 105F combined with upper 70s dewpoints leading to heat indices as high as the 120sF. The cold front bringing the relief from this extreme heat/humidity will, unfortunately, lead to dangerous storms as the afternoon progresses. Temperatures may rise another degree or two into the mid 100s. (103-106+F) with heat indices of 118-125+F.

Storms have already begun forming along and near the cold front to the northwest from southern PA west/southwestwards into far northwestern MD. With the extreme environment in place ( 9+C/km low-level lapse rates, up to 2000 J/kg downdraft CAPE, 2.25”+ Pwats, 3500-5000+ J/kg MLCAPE all combined with 40-50+ kts of effective-bulk shear) storms will quickly congeal into ESE-moving bowing segments which may produce corridors of destructive, hurricane-force wind gusts, in some cases potentially up to 100+mph with the embedded micro/macrobursts the environment will be very favorable for. With large CAPE through the hail growth zone, storms could produce large hail as well with 2”+ diameter hail possible with any embedded or lone supercell. Low-level effective SRH will be moderate (~100-150+m2/s2) which will be enough for a chance of a few qlcs tornadoes across the region, particularly with the bowing line-segments.

With the high moisture content of the atmosphere, these storms will also be efficient rain producers with 2 to 3+ in/hr rainfall rates leading to ponding and some instances of flash flooding despite the dry conditions over the last several weeks, though the flash flooding threat doesn’t look widespread enough to warrant a Flash Flood Watch at this time. Trends will be watched over the next few hours for possible future issuance. Most areas will most likely receive between one and two inches of rain with some spots the end up under brief training, particularly between the bowing segments, may end up with up to 3 inches. Wherever this occurs will experience the greatest flash flooding risk.

Once the front moves through the region by the mid to late evening hours skies will clear and temps will fall into the upper 50s by dawn on NNW winds of 15 to 20mph, gusting over 25 mph at times. Friday will feature the coolest day since early/mid June with temperatures only reaching the mid/upper 70s with low humidity.

 

Weenie Forecaster Wannabe: George BM

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6 hours ago, Interstate said:

Went to the Ironbirds game yesterday  2 outs bottom of the 9th down by 2 with guys on first and second. Then comes the rain delay. lol. 
 

19 minute delay. When play resumed, one pitch, walk off home run.
 

These pics were taken 4 minutes apart. 
 

Never rained on I-95. 

IMG_6007.jpeg

IMG_6006.jpeg

Wow... Storybook.

Misery for the opposing pitcher though.

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Currently 74 in Beech Mountain, NC. Yesterday was low 80s and humid before four hours of storms. Feeling pretty pretty pretty good about the timing and location of this long weekend trip given what happened with the heat back home…

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43 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Currently 74 in Beech Mountain, NC. Yesterday was low 80s and humid before four hours of storms. Feeling pretty pretty pretty good about the timing and location of this long weekend trip given what happened with the heat back home…

Indeed! Looked up Beech Mountain, and it looks like you're in gorgeous country...no matter what the season. Enjoy, and safe travels!

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2 hours ago, North Balti Zen said:

It is indeed truly lovely up here - grateful for the respite 

 

 

Beautiful. Took some vacations in that general area years ago- Boone, Blowing Rock etc. Microclimate in winter- quite cold and relatively snowy for that latitude(at least back then). I'm sure it is still to some degree.

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Okay thundershowers entirely unrelated to Beryl dumped 2 inches on Buda today. Wind gusted to 25 mph at times.

This now puts us at 30.2 inches for the year. Normal annual rainfall here is thirty inches.

This area of rain looks like a kind of convergence zone, it is not moving but just keeps on redeveloping right on top of us, over a rather large area of south Texas right now. Austin and Houston are right in the thick of it.

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On 6/30/2024 at 10:15 PM, George BM said:

Forecast Discussion

Thursday, July 25, 2024 2:34PM EDT

Excessive Heat Warning in effect until 8PM EDT Thursday, July 25, 2024

PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect until 10PM EDT Thursday, July 25, 2024

Much of the region will finally see a decent amount of rain this afternoon and evening. The major caveat, however, is that it will come in the form of significantly severe thunderstorms with the threat of life-threatening hurricane-force wind gusts, large hail and a few tornadoes.

A record hot and moist airmass remains in place ahead of the SSE advancing cold front with temps generally between 102 and 105F combined with upper 70s dewpoints leading to heat indices as high as the 120sF. The cold front bringing the relief from this extreme heat/humidity will, unfortunately, lead to dangerous storms as the afternoon progresses. Temperatures may rise another degree or two into the mid 100s. (103-106+F) with heat indices of 118-125+F.

Storms have already begun forming along and near the cold front to the northwest from southern PA west/southwestwards into far northwestern MD. With the extreme environment in place ( 9+C/km low-level lapse rates, up to 2000 J/kg downdraft CAPE, 2.25”+ Pwats, 3500-5000+ J/kg MLCAPE all combined with 40-50+ kts of effective-bulk shear) storms will quickly congeal into ESE-moving bowing segments which may produce corridors of destructive, hurricane-force wind gusts, in some cases potentially up to 100+mph with the embedded micro/macrobursts the environment will be very favorable for. With large CAPE through the hail growth zone, storms could produce large hail as well with 2”+ diameter hail possible with any embedded or lone supercell. Low-level effective SRH will be moderate (~100-150+m2/s2) which will be enough for a chance of a few qlcs tornadoes across the region, particularly with the bowing line-segments.

With the high moisture content of the atmosphere, these storms will also be efficient rain producers with 2 to 3+ in/hr rainfall rates leading to ponding and some instances of flash flooding despite the dry conditions over the last several weeks, though the flash flooding threat doesn’t look widespread enough to warrant a Flash Flood Watch at this time. Trends will be watched over the next few hours for possible future issuance. Most areas will most likely receive between one and two inches of rain with some spots the end up under brief training, particularly between the bowing segments, may end up with up to 3 inches. Wherever this occurs will experience the greatest flash flooding risk.

Once the front moves through the region by the mid to late evening hours skies will clear and temps will fall into the upper 50s by dawn on NNW winds of 15 to 20mph, gusting over 25 mph at times. Friday will feature the coolest day since early/mid June with temperatures only reaching the mid/upper 70s with low humidity.

 

Weenie Forecaster Wannabe: George BM

You are NO wannabe, George BM. You need to attend Met school STAT. We need your help. Weather will become more interesting with time. The high SSTs will not help.

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13 hours ago, CAPE said:

Os need to find at least one more legit starter, and one reliever. Povich isn't ready and needs to be demoted, like now.

I heard they might be bringng Mayo up to see if he is ready.  If he is, they might try and trade Mountcastle for pitching....Not sure I like that. 

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I am fully content. It hit 99 today with wall to wall sunshine and I got the bajorkas worked out of me installing a new fence in the Texas sun. Few high cirrus. Same for tomorrow, highs in the upper 90s. Beryl is thankfully so far east, we got a tenth of an inch of rain in the forecast or none at all. Not to make light of Beryl hitting Houston or the Matagorda regions but hopefully the storm stays 60 mph and hits the land then decays and dumps harmless rains and gets picked up by the trough.

We were very fortunate this thing got torn up by the Yucatan, dry air and shear. We could have had a Cat 5 160 mph TC smacking Houston per usual. No good at all.

In the summer, here in south Texas I am a fully realized warminista. Its dry and plenty hot. I work outside in this stuff every day, too.

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26 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Don't come to TX. You will REALLY MELT down here, lol.

A/C died. HI is 940F inside house.

Been to TX... hot af. San Antonio. Riverwalk. It was 90F at 12p.m. and 1000% humidity. My dumb ass orders spicy chili. Though I am not sure it was as brutal as my current conditions... close.

 

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11 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

To make you all rather jealous. I’m in Whitehorse, Canada this week. It’s 53 this morning. Above normal low temp!

I am jealous of all your cool weather. What makes me TRULY jealous is that you are up in the Yukon Territories, that place is Jack London, Call of the Wild country!

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5 hours ago, KAOS said:

Seriously worried about the power grid at this point. My luck... I will get the A/C fixed and then won't have power.

PJM has heat alert days in effect but the scheduled capacity is totally enough to cover demand at least for now. Certainly could be sporadic issues - but peak capacity doesn't appear to be anywhere close to being an issue compared to demand. 

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Just now, Kmlwx said:

PJM has heat alert days in effect but the scheduled capacity is totally enough to cover demand at least for now. Certainly could be sporadic issues - but peak capacity doesn't appear to be anywhere close to being an issue compared to demand. 

Here's the forecast data for today from PJM directly

Forecast peak #electricity usage for July 10 in #PJM region: 137,923 MW at 4 p.m. (Eastern); total scheduled capacity 164,063 MW (data as of 6 a.m.)

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1 minute ago, aldie 22 said:

It's shocking even on this board how many people are ignorant in geography 

To be fair - some people probably haven't heard of Aldie or are aware that it it's a town. 

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