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July Discobs 2024


George BM
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Shattered the daily rainfall record, 2.32 inches fell in about 2 hours last night as storm basically parked overtop us! Old mark was 1.31 inches in 2022. Almost 6 inches now for month, after being bone dry in the middle. Any ditches or small tributaries that had anything left in them after the 24's gullywasher should be sparkling clean now. Currently dense fog and 62.4/61.6. 

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Very nice morning out except for the cicadas which are shrieking already.  I wonder if they thrive in the new arid summer climate we have?

LWX calling for showers again next week -- LOL.  We barely got a drop last week with a stationary front and a cold front, and couldn't get any the week before with a strong front plowing into 103 degree air mass.  We are going to OCMD end of Aug - I hope to see a thunderstorm there as it will be the only chance

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2 hours ago, BlizzardNole said:

Very nice morning out except for the cicadas which are shrieking already.  I wonder if they thrive in the new arid summer climate we have?

LWX calling for showers again next week -- LOL.  We barely got a drop last week with a stationary front and a cold front, and couldn't get any the week before with a strong front plowing into 103 degree air mass.  We are going to OCMD end of Aug - I hope to see a thunderstorm there as it will be the only chance

There will be rain next week.  In the usual areas.  But not for the rest of us.  And I already see forecast highs in the mid 90s by midweek, which will verify closer to 100F for us in the desert wasteland.

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13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

18z 3k says you and I get 2-3” through Tuesday evening. We’ll see 

The field that my wife rides her horse on in Finksburg is so dry it feels like concrete. We desperately need a regionwide 2 to 4 inches of rain over a few days.

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1 hour ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

We couldn't even do that in El nino last winter.

Yeah it's a bit disheartening to see most of this week's  predicted higher rainfall totals to not get much farther NE than the Blacksburg NWS coverage area at the moment.... 

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I remember Summers being hotter as a kid.. maybe the jet stream was south, giving us more of a push in front of storm systems.. There used to be big time thunderstorms too. We would have 10-15 days of year where the sky would turn dark gray or black. Not necessarily hail or tornados, but very powerful thunderstorms. Even in the early 2000s, there was a lot of lightning (I took thousands of photos). Completely different pattern now.

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19 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

The side "benefit" of being in the local dry spot.  Temps soar.  It is around 90 at the airports, and I'm 95.7 (confirmed by a second thermometer on my air quality sensor in the shade).

93.7 here

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I finally put up a tempest over the weekend and it's showing 94.5 here in Leesburg. 

Likely will move it in a few weeks so that it's sitting a bit higher and a bit further from the house. Nice to have a weather station up and running though.

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14 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I remember Summers being hotter as a kid.. maybe the jet stream was south, giving us more of a push in front of storm systems.. There used to be big time thunderstorms too. We would have 10-15 days of year where the sky would turn dark gray or black. Not necessarily hail or tornados, but very powerful thunderstorms. Even in the early 2000s, there was a lot of lightning (I took thousands of photos). Completely different pattern now.

It's a good thing we have objective data to analyze this instead of one's feelings. Probably when you were a kid, you were out in the heat and now as an adult have to work in an air conditioned setting.

Even sorted by mean maximum temperature, the top 4 hottest summers at DCA have all occurred since 2010. Obviously, 2024 is not over but it certainly appears destined to place in the Top 5, which would mean the Top 5 have occurred in a 15-year span.

Further, there's a good reason to believe the values from 1986 to 1995 at DCA [and all other first order sites] were inflated relative to readings before and after that era [which included several summers with high maximum temperatures - 1987, 1988, 1991, 1993, 1994 and 1995]. Even so, each of the summers from 2010-2012 and 2016 surpassed those levels [and 2024 seems poised to do so as well].

Sources:

climo_rpt_96_2.pdf (colostate.edu) - Study of 79 first-order climate sites between 1994 & 1995 found an average annual max temperature bias of +1.16F, and an average annual low temperature bias of +0.95F from the HO-83 relative to the ASOS installation. 

Comparison of ASOS and HO-83 temperatures at Lincoln, Nebraska from November 1991 through October 1992 (noaa.gov) - 12-month study from Lincoln, Nebraska study 1991-92. ASOS was from 1.4 to 2.6F cooler for maximum temperatures every month, and from 0.7 to 2.5F cooler for minimum temperatures.

An Investigation of Temperature Discontinuities Introduced by the Installation of the HO-83 Thermometer in: Journal of Climate Volume 8 Issue 5 (1995) (ametsoc.org) - Another study, somewhat smaller estimate of 0.6C bias - actually suggests less bias in summer, but not sure that is correct.

Ironically, I learned about this decades ago from climate change deniers.  At that time, they were blaming climate change (in part) on this faulty sensor. Obviously, a ridiculous argument since U.S. first order airport sites make up a very small fraction of the USHCN sites, and almost zero percent of the global climate stations [the majority of which is water, after all].  But I correctly guessed it would turn to pointing to these same years as being evidence it wasn't warming as much as they said.

The HO-83 Hygro- thermometer « Climate Audit - cites some more sources, particularly about Tuscon and how the NWS could not confirm a global warming signal in the deadly Chicago heat wave of 1995 because the readings were likely inflated by instrument bias

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2 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

The side "benefit" of being in the local dry spot.  Temps soar.  It is around 90 at the airports, and I'm 95.7 (confirmed by a second thermometer on my air quality sensor in the shade).

I'm bestowing honorary Stephens City citizenship to you.  Welcome to Hell.

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78 degrees and cloudy at 3:30.  Nice with a southwest breeze of 5-10.

Of course the useless NAM prediction of heavy rain has been a total failure.

West Virginia Governor Jim Justice declared a Drought State Of Emergency for the entire state of W.Va.    https://governor.wv.gov/News/press-releases/2024/Pages/Gov.-Justice-announces-State-of-Emergency-for-all-55-counties-due-to-dangerous-drought-conditions.aspx

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