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July Discobs 2024


George BM
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DCA has not dropped below 70 degrees since July 2; most of the overnight lows have exceeded 75, more like Miami than DC. We in the greater urban heat island deserve the couple of cool nights we'll get.

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1 hour ago, kgottwald said:

DCA has not dropped below 70 degrees since July 2; most of the overnight lows have exceeded 75, more like Miami than DC. We in the greater urban heat island deserve the couple of cool nights we'll get.

The mean temperature at DCA has been 81.9F for the summer to date.

image.png.4278a32348087319b094d0d30ea2a689.png

In the 93-year period beginning in 1884 and ending in 1976 [inclusive], this value was exceeded on only 5 occasions in Savannah, Georgia. Those being the summers of 1934, 1939, 1942, 1943 and 1952.

image.png.76c406d2d74e22b4009b42535a5c8ba5.png

 

 

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2 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

The mean temperature at DCA has been 81.9F for the summer to date.

image.png.4278a32348087319b094d0d30ea2a689.png

In the 93-year period beginning in 1884 and ending in 1976 [inclusive], this value was exceeded on only 5 occasions in Savannah, Georgia. Those being the summers of 1934, 1939, 1942, 1943 and 1952.

image.png.76c406d2d74e22b4009b42535a5c8ba5.png

 

 

Similarly, in the 106-year period beginning in 1892 and ending in 1997 [inclusive], this value was exceeded in only 9 summers at Tallahassee, Florida.

image.png.20d41f58f93fb12e0702a6a30e691134.png

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At Miami, the mean of 81.9F would tie for 19th warmest of the 89 years of record in the interval from 1896 to 1986 [inclusive].

image.png.bed6187a399328712d12b8ac03a80224.png

So, yeah, even Miami is not a good comparison. Temperatures for the summer to date in DC in 2024 would be well above the median 20th century value for Miami for the period ending July 24. Prior to the very end of the 20th century, heat similar to that experienced in DC would only be expected in Miami a little more than twice a decade.

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3 hours ago, dailylurker said:

Looks like whoever missed the rain this week will be waiting a while for another chance. LR looking dry. 

Yep.  I chuckled at LWX's P&C forecast of 1.25-1.75 inches for Monday/Monday night period plus more strong rain working thru Thursday, and laughed at the ridiculous qpf maps showing 2-3" for the week.  As I knew would happen I only have a few hundredths of an inch for the whole week will finish July with well under an inch

 

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40 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

Yep.  I chuckled at LWX's P&C forecast of 1.25-1.75 inches for Monday/Monday night period plus more strong rain working thru Thursday, and laughed at the ridiculous qpf maps showing 2-3" for the week.  As I knew would happen I only have a few hundredths of an inch for the whole week will finish July with well under an inch

 

It all depended where the storms set up.  I got well over an inch this week and some places got over 3 inches.

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Interesting that the early summer of 1931 in Tallahassee got its record warmth from the high temperatures exclusively; the lows were comparatively bearable. June 10 even had a high of 95 and a low of 58, something you'd expect to see in *Denver.* Pity you can't look up dewpoints.

Edit: Tallahassee's population in 1930 was barely 10,000, so there was essentially no urban heat island.

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Perhaps more impressive, the current monthly mean temperature of 84.5F would tie for 16th warmest July in the ENTIRE period of record at Miami. Higher July mean temperatures were never observed prior to 1981, and only 4 times prior to 2005 [1981, 1983, 1992 (Pinatubo be damned) and 1998]. The highest pre-1980 mean was 84.0F, set in 1969.

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4 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Perhaps more impressive, the current monthly mean temperature of 84.5F would tie for 16th warmest July in the ENTIRE period of record at Miami. Higher July mean temperatures were never observed prior to 1981, and only 4 times prior to 2005 [1981, 1983, 1992 (Pinatubo be damned) and 1998]. The highest pre-1980 mean was 84.0F, set in 1969.

Based on current trends, it appears likely that DCA will see some months reach mean temperature levels never observed outside of Death Valley prior to the 21st century by the end of this century.

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19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

New day, same game

Concerned that the cells that popped up just to my east will rob the atmosphere of the energy needed to sustain that line out west. Too many close misses to the south and east in this period (except for one storm two days ago) has me a little on edge (no pun intended).

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9 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Concerned that the cells that popped up just to my east will rob the atmosphere of the energy needed to sustain that line out west. Too many close misses to the south and east in this period (except for one storm two days ago) has me a little on edge (no pun intended).

Yeah I think I have almost no chance. Drought getting deeper. Those tropical remnants or first fall synoptic event are going to be necessary to start digging out of this hole.

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37 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah I think I have almost no chance. Drought getting deeper. Those tropical remnants or first fall synoptic event are going to be necessary to start digging out of this hole.

This time of year is too popcorn-y to reliably bust a rainfall deficit across the area. Agreed that we just need remnants or a coastal-type low to get a nice region-wide dousing.

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2 hours ago, mattie g said:

I shouldn't complain because we got absolutely dumped on for like 15-20 minutes the other day, but missing like this in much the same way for days on end is incredibly frustrating!

And we've been dumped on, in seemingly random ways as well. And yeah, the grass and plantings are testifying...it's completely frustrating.  :/ 

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