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July Discobs 2024


George BM
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The 80’s had some  doozies.

1980 was king and then 2010 rivaled it and 2011 and 2012 beat it. 
MN might know . I think 1980 might still have record for most 90+ in a row?  The averages for 11 and 12 were unique and one of those had 7 100’s with one station but I forget with 11?

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We have a heck of a model battle shaping up for Saturday.

GFS - high in the low/mid 70s with clouds

Euro - high in the upper 70s with some rain

NAM - high in the upper 80s, mix of sun/clouds

HRRR - high in the 90s with clouds and later day rain

NWS is going low 80s with a chance of afternoon rain.

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9 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

The 80’s had some  doozies.

1980 was king and then 2010 rivaled it and 2011 and 2012 beat it. 
MN might know . I think 1980 might still have record for most 90+ in a row?  The averages for 11 and 12 were unique and one of those had 7 100’s with one station but I forget with 11?

1980 and 2010 were remarkably similar.  Both ended up with 67 days of 90+.  1980 has 5 100s and 2010 had 4.  The average high for the days that hit 90 were within a fraction of each other.  In 2010 the heat started early with a couple of 90s in the first week of April, while in 1980 it stretched on with 14(!) 90+ days in September.  1980 did have the 21-day 90 streak which I believe still lives as the longest.  

Here's my disturbing heat stat, though.  Only 4 years in the entire DCA climo record have had 4+ days where the total temperature (high + low) is 180, or a 90.0 average.

  • 2011
  • 2012
  • 2016
  • 2024

 

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14 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Looks like they are holding onto a +EPO again. To clarify, +EPO pattern (cold anomaly over Alaska) is different from the global warming trend. It's the top index-pattern for warmth across the US. 

The +EPO correlation to -PDO has been strong over the last few years. The -PDO has its highest correlation in the Fall, so if this forecast hold, we can very well expect a warmer to much warmer than average Sept-Nov. 

First September with no lows under 70? First October with an average low above 60 at DCA?

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1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:

We have a heck of a model battle shaping up for Saturday.

GFS - high in the low/mid 70s with clouds

Euro - high in the upper 70s with some rain

NAM - high in the upper 80s, mix of sun/clouds

HRRR - high in the 90s with clouds and later day rain

NWS is going low 80s with a chance of afternoon rain.

Shocker, I know, but overnight guidance got less enthusiastic with daily showers and storms this coming week. A lot of too far north or too far south. Still several days to go, but summer trend would be to get screwed.

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3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Shocker, I know, but overnight guidance got less enthusiastic with daily showers and storms this coming week. A lot of too far north or too far south. Still several days to go, but summer trend would be to get screwed.

Psshhh it ain't gonna rain next week.  We'll get plenty in our 6 month wet season

But wow it's a gorgeous day!  Almost noon and only 79 degrees

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On 7/17/2024 at 4:57 PM, Roger Smith said:

As to winter 1936-37, you'll probably find in detail, very cold at times late NOV, milder last part of DEC and all JAN, still quite mild FEB, colder in march -- betting most of 20" snow occurred at bookends of a mild winter.

 

That winter still holds the record for least snow in Boston! Just 9.0 inches, of which 4.4 inches fell in November.

2011-12 and 2023-2024 are not far behind, though, with 9.3 and 9.8 inches respectively.

DC's total was 20.3 inches, of which the snowiest month was March with 11.1.

 

 

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5 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

1980 and 2010 were remarkably similar.  Both ended up with 67 days of 90+.  1980 has 5 100s and 2010 had 4.  The average high for the days that hit 90 were within a fraction of each other.  In 2010 the heat started early with a couple of 90s in the first week of April, while in 1980 it stretched on with 14(!) 90+ days in September.  1980 did have the 21-day 90 streak which I believe still lives as the longest.  

Here's my disturbing heat stat, though.  Only 4 years in the entire DCA climo record have had 4+ days where the total temperature (high + low) is 180, or a 90.0 average.

  • 2011
  • 2012
  • 2016
  • 2024

 

I don’t worry too much about the recentness because it’s mostly the mins doing that and I continue to say that DCA has an impediment to nighttime radiational that other stations do not

Thanks for the great details 

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7 hours ago, wxdude64 said:

First sub 80 high here in a while, 79.1 high! Another 0.23 in gauge this morning, about 6 tenths in last 3 days. Some relief, but more is needed. Currently 63.9/63.0 with PC skies and some fog around. 

I got a drought busting 0.02" a couple of days ago - desperately need something. Glad you got something in your bucket! This morning's low of 51.6 felt legitimately chilly...the dryness (sadly) helped temps tank last night. 

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