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July Discobs 2024


George BM
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15 minutes ago, RIC_WX said:

1.20" month to date at DCL, .74" in the past 48 hours.

Deep Creek Lake is approximately 12" lower compared to this time last year, with most all of that deficit materializing during the "flash drought" period.  

The flash drought occurrences seem to be increasing infrequency over the past decade. Though these events pale in comparison to the drought of 1999 - 2002.

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21 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The flash drought occurrences seem to be increasing infrequency over the past decade. Though these events pale in comparison to the drought of 1999 - 2002.

They tend to reverse pretty quickly, as I expect this one too as well as the hot pattern of the past month appears to be transitioning and we get closer to the heart of tropical season.

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Surprised how humid it still was this AM. Thought cooler feeling air would have filtered in behind the rain, not yet I guess.

 

Monkton took a really nice hit from the storm between 6 and 7 - thor style cloud to ground lightning strikes and torrential tropical feeling rain for about 15-20 minutes. I don't think it rained much after that but things do look a little more tan than deep brown in the yard this morning, so, progress.  Need more rain tho. 

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So, actual RAIN is falling this morning, and not just from a quickly passing T-storm! Started around 8:30 and continues. About 0.15 has fallen after getting 0.28 in a T-storm between 3 and 4 pm yesterday. Currently rain and 71.1/69.8

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59 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

In my mind the humidity of 2011 still makes that one the king.  

i was in NYC at the time but 2010-2012 were just absolutely horrendous.  NYC when it's 104-105F is about the worst thing ever (especially at night when it's still in the 90s once you get out of Central Park).

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12 minutes ago, Herb@MAWS said:

In my part of Columbia a whopping 0.1” Wednesday, bringing July total rain to 0.4”. 

That seems a little low…CoCoRaHS near us is 0.7” for the last week which “feels” right. 

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49 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

1.69” for the entire summer period so far.  Sure could use some tropical remnants.

That's what I'm hoping for.  Tropical is going to be dead for a while with all that Sahara dust but should start up again in a few weeks.  I'd like to see a large remnant go up the coast with a front slowly approaching from the west

Cloudy and 78 in late morning which is a welcome change!

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1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

:maphot:

Looks like they are holding onto a +EPO again. To clarify, +EPO pattern (cold anomaly over Alaska) is different from the global warming trend. It's the top index-pattern for warmth across the US. 

The +EPO correlation to -PDO has been strong over the last few years. The -PDO has its highest correlation in the Fall, so if this forecast hold, we can very well expect a warmer to much warmer than average Sept-Nov. 

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5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Looks like they are holding onto a +EPO again. To clarify, +EPO pattern (cold anomaly over Alaska) is different from the global warming trend. It's the top index-pattern for warmth across the US. 

The +EPO correlation to -PDO has been strong over the last few years. The -PDO has its highest correlation in the Fall, so if this forecast hold, we can very well expect a warmer to much warmer than average Sept-Nov. 

This winter is going to blow absolute chunks. Do we even get any snow?

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17 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

This winter is going to blow absolute chunks. Do we even get any snow?

The top 30 analogs to US-based warmth that we have seen Dec-July (which I think this year is #1 all time), are very warm into the following March. December is the one month that is near average in that roll-forward, but every other month goes like +2 to +5.  

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2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The top 30 analogs to US-based warmth that we have seen Dec-July (which I think this year is #1 all time), are very warm into the following March. December is the one month that is near average in that roll-forward, but every other month goes like +2 to +5.  

That's just insanely depressing. We haven't had a legit snowstorm in almost a decade and now we have to wait another 2 years for even a shot.

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10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

That's just insanely depressing. We haven't had a legit snowstorm in almost a decade and now we have to wait another 2 years for even a shot.

The +EPO has been especially strong in this Dec-July period. A lot of time though, the EPO "evens out" in the time after a strong phase, so there is some hope I think for -EPO periods this Winter, or maybe beyond. -PDO usually continues +epo though, at least through the Fall.. 

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1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

That's just insanely depressing. We haven't had a legit snowstorm in almost a decade and now we have to wait another 2 years for even a shot.

And yet I got flooded with weenie reactions when I pre-emptively wrote off the next 2 winters in the speculation thread. Nina blizzards are an oxymoron these days.

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