katabatic Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 11 minutes ago, wxdude64 said: 51.3 for the low here this morning. Canaan ALMOST made it to freezing! And you almost made it to the 4s, dangit. 45.9 here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Super nice morning, makes watching the models dry up for the week a little more bearable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Low of 57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Dewpoint creeping into the 60s here. Still very tolerable, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 1 hour ago, wxdude64 said: 51.3 for the low here this morning. Canaan ALMOST made it to freezing! CWG Twitter says Canaan hit 32 and a spotter in Garrett county MD had frost. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: CWG Twitter says Canaan hit 32 and a spotter in Garrett county MD had frost. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 2 hours ago, Kmlwx said: Dewpoint creeping into the 60s here. Still very tolerable, of course. Glad to see it. The beautiful deserts of the southwest are much better at dry than we are whereas we're professionals at lush summers when the pattern is in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 6 hours ago, WxUSAF said: CWG Twitter says Canaan hit 32 and a spotter in Garrett county MD had frost. We managed several hours overnight at DCL in the 40's. I bottomed out at 46*F, but by the time I was out for my morning run it had rebounded well into the 50's. Still refreshing to sleep with the windows open and AC off. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 59 minutes ago, RIC_WX said: We managed several hours overnight at DCL in the 40's. I bottomed out at 46*F, but by the time I was out for my morning run it had rebounded well into the 50's. Still refreshing to sleep with the windows open and AC off. We’re arriving tomorrow just in time for the humidity to return Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 Frostburg mesonet site got down to 52 degrees last night. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 52.6 last night here! That was so cool! Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 On 7/1/2024 at 7:07 PM, WxUSAF said: Guidance hinting at a potentially rainy week after the holiday. Stationary boundary with good moisture flux from the south. This hasn’t aged well 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 LWX disco sounds optimistic for rain chances over the next few days. Let's hope as some CoCoRaHS reports in northern VA had only about a half inch for the month of June. That is ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 30 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said: LWX disco sounds optimistic for rain chances over the next few days. Let's hope as some CoCoRaHS reports in northern VA had only about a half inch for the month of June. That is ugly That describes mby as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 28 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: This hasn’t aged well I’m still optimistic. The front placement will be hard to pinpoint and maybe we get lucky with a well-timed wave or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 Low of 58 this morning. Won't be seen that again anytime soon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 Snippet from Mount Holly morning AFD focused on Saturday- Low pressure lifts northward into Ontario Friday night into Saturday with a strengthening southerly flow developing in the warm sector over the area ahead of an approaching cold front. This will ratchet up the mugginess even further with dewpoints potentially reaching over 75 degrees in some areas by Saturday afternoon. Combined with forecast highs for Saturday once again in the upper 80s to low 90s for most areas, this could bring peak heat indices in the range of 102 to 107 degrees, meaning heat headlines would be needed if this forecast holds. The synoptic scale lift provided by the cold front along with abundant moisture looks to result in widespread showers and storms by Saturday afternoon into the evening. And at this point, both severe weather and flash flooding look to be a threat. We remain particularly concerned seeing progged PWat values by both deterministic models and ensembles in the range of 2.25 to 2.5 inches which is again is close to climatological maxes. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 36 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: This hasn’t aged well Noticed a backing off earlier this week then it looked like a small rebound then of course the old oaky doak this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 26 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: I’m still optimistic. The front placement will be hard to pinpoint and maybe we get lucky with a well-timed wave or two. 20 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: Noticed a backing off earlier this week then it looked like a small rebound then of course the old oaky doak this morning I said this about a week ago, but euro in particular loves the “next” rain event lately. Keeps showing rainy solutions in the mid range and then pulling back at short ranges. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Snippet from Mount Holly morning AFD focused on Saturday- Low pressure lifts northward into Ontario Friday night into Saturday with a strengthening southerly flow developing in the warm sector over the area ahead of an approaching cold front. This will ratchet up the mugginess even further with dewpoints potentially reaching over 75 degrees in some areas by Saturday afternoon. Combined with forecast highs for Saturday once again in the upper 80s to low 90s for most areas, this could bring peak heat indices in the range of 102 to 107 degrees, meaning heat headlines would be needed if this forecast holds. The synoptic scale lift provided by the cold front along with abundant moisture looks to result in widespread showers and storms by Saturday afternoon into the evening. And at this point, both severe weather and flash flooding look to be a threat. We remain particularly concerned seeing progged PWat values by both deterministic models and ensembles in the range of 2.25 to 2.5 inches which is again is close to climatological maxes. Yep, this caught my eye " We remain particularly concerned seeing progged PWat values by both deterministic models and ensembles in the range of 2.25 to 2.5 inches which is again is close to climatological maxes. " Never posted this, but the last rain event produced training cells delivering 2.55 inches of rain and the night before 1.52 inches. This was preceded by a dew point of 79 here. The atmosphere will once again be primed on Saturday to deliver big rainfall totals. I hope this time more folks in our forum are able to get significant rainfall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 22 minutes ago, frd said: Yep, this caught my eye " We remain particularly concerned seeing progged PWat values by both deterministic models and ensembles in the range of 2.25 to 2.5 inches which is again is close to climatological maxes. " Never posted this, but the last rain event produced training cells delivering 2.55 inches of rain and the night before 1.52 inches. This was preceded by a dew point of 79 here. The atmosphere will once again be primed on Saturday to deliver big rainfall totals. I hope this time more folks in our forum are able to get significant rainfall. Yeah I saw the big totals in your area on the radar estimate. Places in SNJ had 4-6" during that period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 28 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yeah I saw the big totals in your area on the radar estimate. Places in SNJ had 4-6" during that period. Have you been to the beaches recently? I am trying to figure out why the near land SSTs are still so chilly. We have had some very hot days. Maybe upwelling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 8 minutes ago, frd said: Have you been to the beaches recently? I am trying to figure out why the near land SSTs are still so chilly. We have had some very hot days. Maybe upwelling? I can attest that OC was chilly last weekend. Swimmable...but required sunshine and internal motivation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 16 minutes ago, frd said: Have you been to the beaches recently? I am trying to figure out why the near land SSTs are still so chilly. We have had some very hot days. Maybe upwelling? OT but has anyone been to Corolla, NC? We went a couple summers years ago and the water temps there are wild. We had one day with water in low 80s and the next morning it was 60. Then back to mid-70s the next day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 17 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said: OT but has anyone been to Corolla, NC? We went a couple summers years ago and the water temps there are wild. We had one day with water in low 80s and the next morning it was 60. Then back to mid-70s the next day Thats sounds like typical West winds or offshore upwelling. Crazy days are possible there. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 22 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said: OT but has anyone been to Corolla, NC? We went a couple summers years ago and the water temps there are wild. We had one day with water in low 80s and the next morning it was 60. Then back to mid-70s the next day I went there once with my brother in law...we both rode our jeeps. Definitely a nice spot, though it's a trek getting there. Gulf stream basically bypasses OC and gets close to the OBX. Water temps are significantly warmer in VA beach and points south for that reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 4 hours ago, CAPE said: Low of 58 this morning. Won't be seen that again anytime soon. Excellent early morning dog walking weather. Almost chilly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 12z mesos have earlier storms tomorrow. More “parade ruining” vs “fireworks ruining”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 1 hour ago, frd said: Have you been to the beaches recently? I am trying to figure out why the near land SSTs are still so chilly. We have had some very hot days. Maybe upwelling? The air temperature really has very little to do with water temperature on the OBX in summer. Its all about wind direction. Southwest is cold, southeast is warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 4 hours ago, WxUSAF said: I said this about a week ago, but euro in particular loves the “next” rain event lately. Keeps showing rainy solutions in the mid range and then pulling back at short ranges. That sounds like winter where they kept showing a pattern change/ colder temps and the can kept getting kicked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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