kgottwald Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 Then again, those were dust-bowl years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 87/75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 Getting really concerned about trying to get meaningful rainfall this week. It’s still on the table, but it’s far from a sure thing, and lowering model QPF reflects that. It looks like 2 chances: 1) a line of convection on the front Wednesday evening which has potential for big localized totals, but will there be breaks in the line, and might it weaken if it arrives too late? 2) moisture moving from coastal areas back to the northwest Friday. The best rains will be east and southeast of us, but can we still get a modest soaking? Models now still have us within the “good” rain, but we’re getting dangerously close to the back edge, and any further shift east could really screw us. I wouldn’t want to be too far west of DC, as things currently look, for round 2. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 This is ridiculous... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 4 minutes ago, high risk said: Getting really concerned about trying to get meaningful rainfall this week. It’s still on the table, but it’s far from a sure thing, and lowering model QPF reflects that. It looks like 2 chances: 1) a line of convection on the front Wednesday evening which has potential for big localized totals, but will there be breaks in the line, and might it weaken if it arrives too late? 2) moisture moving from coastal areas back to the northwest Friday. The best rains will be east and southeast of us, but can we still get a modest soaking? Models now still have us within the “good” rain, but we’re getting dangerously close to the back edge, and any further shift east could really screw us. I wouldn’t want to be too far west of DC, as things currently look, for round 2. Yes, there is absolutely a failure scenario for us, with the highest risk from 95 and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 4 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Yes, there is absolutely a failure scenario for us, with the highest risk from 95 and west. For sure. I think that western areas have the best chance of heavy Wednesday evening convection, and areas east have the best chance of the steadier Friday rain. That in-between zone along I-95 could get screwed on both (although we could “win” on either or both too). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 Regarding 90+ degree days, the record for BWI is 59 for the season in 2010 and 2019. This summer, there have been 22 through yesterday, and with another two solid months of summer remaining, the potential is there to make a run at the record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 DCA briefly dipped to 79F early this AM, so the 80s streak is over at 3 straight nights. But it's oppressive out. DCA is 88/76 at 10am while in Tenley we are at 89/79 for a HI of 104F. It's 10 am folks!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 1 hour ago, MN Transplant said: Exactly. 2010 had the crazy number of 90s, 2011 had the stretch I listed including obscene humidity ("sweat ceiling"), and 2012 had the really big-ticket heat (104 and 105 at DCA). Since then, it has really only been 2016 that went big. Yeah, the slow start to the summer 90s means that this year won't challenge those types of records. I'm curious whether the Staunton data shows the same as DC, where '34 and '36 had hot daytime highs, but the lows were more "reasonable" on those days. Likely some combination of dry conditions and the lack of UHI. Yeah the incidence of 80+ lows in DC was basically 0 until about the 1980s, and it has risen significantly since then. Via Ian on Bluesky: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 52 minutes ago, high risk said: Getting really concerned about trying to get meaningful rainfall this week. It’s still on the table, but it’s far from a sure thing, and lowering model QPF reflects that. It looks like 2 chances: 1) a line of convection on the front Wednesday evening which has potential for big localized totals, but will there be breaks in the line, and might it weaken if it arrives too late? 2) moisture moving from coastal areas back to the northwest Friday. The best rains will be east and southeast of us, but can we still get a modest soaking? Models now still have us within the “good” rain, but we’re getting dangerously close to the back edge, and any further shift east could really screw us. I wouldn’t want to be too far west of DC, as things currently look, for round 2. Does the Delmarva still have a good chance either way for some beneficial rains? From what I see it looks that way. Not to take away from anywhere else in the region, we all need it, but I'll, take what I can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 2 hours ago, MN Transplant said: Exactly. 2010 had the crazy number of 90s, 2011 had the stretch I listed including obscene humidity ("sweat ceiling"), and 2012 had the really big-ticket heat (104 and 105 at DCA). Since then, it has really only been 2016 that went big. Yeah, the slow start to the summer 90s means that this year won't challenge those types of records. I'm curious whether the Staunton data shows the same as DC, where '34 and '36 had hot daytime highs, but the lows were more "reasonable" on those days. Likely some combination of dry conditions and the lack of UHI. Interesting question! The 15 90+ days in 1934 had an average low of 66. The 13 90+ days in 1936 had an average low of 63. The average low for June 20 is 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 Wow 90/78 for my trail run in rock creek. Just brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 1 hour ago, high risk said: Getting really concerned about trying to get meaningful rainfall this week. It’s still on the table, but it’s far from a sure thing, and lowering model QPF reflects that. It looks like 2 chances: 1) a line of convection on the front Wednesday evening which has potential for big localized totals, but will there be breaks in the line, and might it weaken if it arrives too late? 2) moisture moving from coastal areas back to the northwest Friday. The best rains will be east and southeast of us, but can we still get a modest soaking? Models now still have us within the “good” rain, but we’re getting dangerously close to the back edge, and any further shift east could really screw us. I wouldn’t want to be too far west of DC, as things currently look, for round 2. Those were my expressed fears from last weekend. My 3 model blend has collapsed from 1.50" to .37" during the past 24 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 75.5 for a low so three in a row either 75 or 76 DCA headed to 98 today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 93/75 HI 105 at DCA, 93/79 HI 110 in Tenley. Brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 Wow it's hot, even on the deck under tree shade is rough. I feel bad for the millions of folks in Texas with similar heat and no AC for while I wish the remnants of that thing were further east as tropical might be the only way we get good rains here before fall 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted July 9 Author Share Posted July 9 Dulles at 96/73. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 88.9/69.4 at 1 pm here. Looks like another 90+ on the way unless these clouds filling in bring rain quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 They should upgrade to excessive heat warning, looks like heat indices are 105-115 now inside the beltway. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 95/75 109 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 11 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: They should upgrade to excessive heat warning, looks like heat indices are 105-115 now inside the beltway. Agreed. Mine is 109 right now. 92.8 with a dewpoint of 78.4. Absurd and disgusting. Heat headlines can be finnicky I feel like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 Bouncing around 97/98. 6th consecutive day with at least a high of 97 at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 98 so far for the high. Max HI 112. Sitting at 96 with lots of cloud cover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 4 hours ago, high risk said: For sure. I think that western areas have the best chance of heavy Wednesday evening convection, and areas east have the best chance of the steadier Friday rain. That in-between zone along I-95 could get screwed on both (although we could “win” on either or both too). 12z euro is a nut punch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: 12z euro is a nut punch Yes. Yes it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 And in case anyone was worried, the Euro has us back in the upper 90s by Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 1 hour ago, pazzo83 said: 93/75 HI 105 at DCA, 93/79 HI 110 in Tenley. Brutal. 98/75 for a 111 HI at the 1:52pm ob at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: And in case anyone was worried, the Euro has us back in the upper 90s by Sunday. Oh good, this sunny breezy low 70s weather in Canada is wearing on me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 We spend about eight months of the year with 60 and mist, and the other four months at 90 degrees with dewpoints of 5,000. Get me out of this subtropical shithole lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 DCA 99/75 (112). C'mon one more degree! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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