Interstate Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 Low of 74.3...No rain last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 0.18" from last night's t-storm Low of 75f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 1 hour ago, dailylurker said: Still seems odd since most guidance gives us no rain. I guess they hug the NAM 3K I understand questioning the watch, given the dry antecedent conditions, but I don’t understand the comment about most guidance giving us no rain. Toss the HRRR completely, because it’s doing its usual overmixing thing here and drops our dew points into the 50s this afternoon. The rest of the CAMs all have a heavy rain signal *somwhere* in the metro area and suggest a training scenario. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 1 minute ago, high risk said: I understand questioning the watch, given the dry antecedent conditions, but I don’t understand the comment about most guidance giving us no rain. Toss the HRRR completely, because it’s doing its usual overmixing thing here and drops our dew points into the 50s this afternoon. The rest of the CAMs all have a heavy rain signal *somwhere* in the metro area and suggest a training scenario. And also it's a WATCH not a WARNING. The literal purpose of a watch is to indicate that the criteria are possible, not occurring or imminent. Urban flooding is definitely an ever-growing problem in the cities and urban corridor. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 For 3rd straight day I've set a new yearly high, 95.2 degrees. And, for the third straight day it is the 3rd warmest for that date again behind 1988's 97 and 1980's 96. Currently hazy, bit of fog and 66.3/65.2. Got a bit of rain (0.10) from a thundershower between 9 and 10 last night, hoping for more today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 14 minutes ago, high risk said: I understand questioning the watch, given the dry antecedent conditions, but I don’t understand the comment about most guidance giving us no rain. Toss the HRRR completely, because it’s doing its usual overmixing thing here and drops our dew points into the 50s this afternoon. The rest of the CAMs all have a heavy rain signal *somwhere* in the metro area and suggest a training scenario. Yeah. I based my comment on the HRRR and frustration lol Not as bad here this morning. I received about 0.20" from a frisky little thunderstorm last evening. I had some fun lightning strikes and gusty wind. My garden looks happier this morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 15 hours ago, Interstate said: How is your humidity only 29%... That is a dew point of 67 degrees... That seems way too low. I am at 93/78.5 Don't have a good answer for your question, now mostly overcome-by-events. We definitely had higher humidity readings in the 40-60% range on Mon, and all last weekend. I'm between dedicated, "big boy" wx stations right now, so that indoor/outdoor thermo is the best I got. My outdoor temp sensor is mounted 4 ft up, and 2 ft below the eave line, on a north-facing, 100% shaded all day location on the back of my house...and I trust it. While I had that reading of 106 for about 30 min yesterday afternoon, it definitely didn't FEEL as oppressive or sticky IMBY yesterday with the steady breezes all afternoon. (@WeatherShak & @GATECH tend to have similar readings, as they're a couple miles north of me though a bit closer to the river than myself.) More immediately...currently 83/73. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 LOL at DCA already 88 at 8 am, sheesh..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 18 minutes ago, high risk said: I understand questioning the watch, given the dry antecedent conditions, but I don’t understand the comment about most guidance giving us no rain. Toss the HRRR completely, because it’s doing its usual overmixing thing here and drops our dew points into the 50s this afternoon. The rest of the CAMs all have a heavy rain signal *somwhere* in the metro area and suggest a training scenario. Why does this bias always seem to show up during the summer months? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 8 hours ago, Jrlg1181 said: Only joint in Waynesboro that didn't get a good soaking earlier yeah the NW corner yup my yard.... 0.09 brings my monthly total to a pointless 0.16 On the other hand 2 to 3 inches fell in southern Augusta a few miles away which in return will help the South River which will help the Shenandoah a tiny bit... 8 hours ago, pazzo83 said: yeah i saw that line - was thinking Southern Augusta County into Nelson and Albemarle were getting slammed. Yeah, that line did a little hop/skip over me (only 0.10) as it rode up I-64/81 up towards your way. I-64 seemed to be like a wall, then it died off before making C'ville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 37 minutes ago, yoda said: Why does this bias always seem to show up during the summer months? Sounds like a @wxmvpete question? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 54 minutes ago, yoda said: Why does this bias always seem to show up during the summer months? Amateur/gut answer is that it's simply more humid in the summer versus the winter - thus more humidity to overmix out. We might not notice it as much (or at all) when the dewpoints are in the teens versus the 70s. But I could be totally wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 10 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Amateur/gut answer is that it's simply more humid in the summer versus the winter - thus more humidity to overmix out. We might not notice it as much (or at all) when the dewpoints are in the teens versus the 70s. But I could be totally wrong. Yeah I think it’s probably just the way it models convection. It’s too enthusiastic with (dry) convecting air mixing the boundary layer during daytime heating. You don’t get that in the cool seasons. That’s my guess at least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 1 hour ago, wxdude64 said: LOL at DCA already 88 at 8 am, sheesh..... 9am temps DCA 89 BWI 86 IAD 87 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 34 minutes ago, yoda said: 9am temps DCA 89 BWI 86 IAD 87 10 am temps DCA 92 BWI 89 IAD 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 14 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Underwater volcano popped off under the Bay. Damndest thing. But seriously, nothing stands out at 500mb for 104° days and the most 95+ days on record. Is it just constant ejection of high end Sanoran heat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: But seriously, nothing stands out at 500mb for 104° days and the most 95+ days on record. Is it just constant ejection of high end Sanoran heat? Dry soil/drought probably helps a bit. But it’s clearly getting easier to get high end (95+) heat. The June big heat had notable H5 heights, but this one hasn’t as you’ve noted. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 95F at 11am for DCA, although we've already hit 96. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 26 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: 95F at 11am for DCA, although we've already hit 96. The 850s aren’t as supportive today, but DCA may grind out a 100 anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 Pretty spiny thing in WV on satellite. Hard to see what it’s associated on weather maps. Maybe H7 or 850 vortmax? Wonder if that will trigger storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted July 17 Author Share Posted July 17 21 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Pretty spiny thing in WV on satellite. Hard to see what it’s associated on weather maps. Maybe H7 or 850 vortmax? Wonder if that will trigger storms. It's an MCV from a storm complex that died over Kentucky pre-dawn this morning. And, yeah, it'll be interesting the see whether it can fire up a batch of storms locally later. Storms are already forming under the vortmax. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 LWX putting up a special 18z balloon. Should be viewable on the Internet between 2:30 - 3:00 pm 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 6 minutes ago, George BM said: It's an MCV from a storm complex that died over Kentucky pre-dawn this morning. And, yeah, it'll be interesting the see whether it can fire up a batch of storms locally later. Storms are already forming under the vortmax. MCVs are notoriously sneaky for amping up severe chances. They just have to be timed correctly and take a good path for us. But they can add a little "boost" to our odds in an otherwise less favorable environment. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 94 at BWI and IAD, 95 at DCA at noon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 Latest HRRR is.....not encouraging for even garden variety storms. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 I think "BW Fry" airport's record for most 100 degree days in a month is July 2010 with five. We have four so far this month. I think we'll beat July 2020 for hottest month ever although late month might wreck things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Latest HRRR is.....not encouraging for even garden variety storms. Latest HRRR…is not a great convective model in weakly forced mid-Atlantic summer conditions 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 High of 99.3 yesterday with a storm coming through last night with 0.36 rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Latest HRRR is.....not encouraging for even garden variety storms. Earlier it had 0 storms. Hrrr seems to be on fire this season. It's Dr no and has been right a lot lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 Meso from Mason-Dixon north: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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