WxWatcher007 Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 The OG of invests in an extremely active late June basin is worthy of a thread too, though there may not be as much post activity here. A broad area of low pressure has traversed the Yucatán and has now entered the Bay of Campeche. This is the third invest to reach the BoC and threaten the Mexican Gulf coast. There’s not a lot of time for this to organize into a significant wind producer, but once again heavy rains are expected. Recon is scheduled to investigate later today. 1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL94): An area of low pressure located over the southern portion of the Bay of Campeche is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development, and a short-lived tropical depression could form before the system moves inland over Mexico on Monday morning. Interests along the Gulf Coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall associated with the area of low pressure will continue to affect portions of Central America and Mexico through early next week. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 Do you think this will take Chris or Debby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 30 Author Share Posted June 30 Recon finding some TS force SFMR here. It could get a name if sufficiently organized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 No FL winds so far supporting the surface winds, but it's clearly organizing on VIS. I think it will be upgraded to at least a TD, and since it's in an uptrend in organization it will gain the Chris name. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 30 Author Share Posted June 30 14 minutes ago, wxmx said: No FL winds so far supporting the surface winds, but it's clearly organizing on VIS. I think it will be upgraded to at least a TD, and since it's in an uptrend in organization it will gain the Chris name. That’s a good catch. FL winds are not as impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL94): Satellite derived winds and preliminary aircraft reconnaissance data indicate that the area of low pressure located over the southern portion of the Bay of Campeche has become better organized during the past few hours and a tropical depression could be forming. The system is moving toward west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph and is expected to approach the eastern coast of Mexico tonight and move inland on Monday morning. Consequently, a Tropical Storm Watch may be required later today for a portion of the eastern coast of Mexico. Interests along the Gulf Coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will result in areas of flooding across eastern Mexico today and into Monday, with mudslides possible in areas of higher terrain. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is currently investigating the system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 Who deleted my last post, it was official information from NOAA. From the link posted. AL, 94, 2024063018, , BEST, 0, 196N, 944W, 30, 1007, TD https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal942024.dat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 At least TD. A few 40+ FL, which with a 20% reduction would translate to roughly 35kts surface winds. That, plus many SFMR readings up to 50kts, may classify it as Chris prior to landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 Yep. This is a TS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 30 Author Share Posted June 30 22 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: Who deleted my last post, it was official information from NOAA. From the link posted. AL, 94, 2024063018, , BEST, 0, 196N, 944W, 30, 1007, TD https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal942024.dat Thanks. We have a VDM too now from recon. Despite the SFMR, like @wxmx said earlier the FL winds weren’t quite there yet. Wouldn’t take much to get a name though. Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 30th day of the month at 19:09ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5308Mission Purpose: Investigate fourth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 1Observation Number: 08 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 30th day of the month at 18:14:00ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 19.59N 95.39WB. Center Fix Location: 195 statute miles (313 km) to the NW (305°) from Villahermosa, Tabasco, Mexico.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not AvailableD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1007mb (29.74 inHg) - ExtrapolatedE. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NAF. Eye Character: Not AvailableG. Eye Shape: Not AvailableH. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 47kts (54.1mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 1 nautical miles to the W (274°) of center fix at 18:13:30ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 290° at 25kts (From the WNW at 28.8mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles) to the WNW/NW (304°) of center fix at 18:05:00ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 32kts (36.8mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 7 nautical miles to the E (95°) of center fix at 18:16:00ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 180° at 25kts (From the S at 28.8mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 42 nautical miles (48 statute miles) to the ESE/SE (124°) of center fix at 18:31:00ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 372m (1,220ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 336m (1,102ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 21°C (70°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and PressureS. Fix Level: 1,500 feetT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical milesRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 25kts (~ 28.8mph) which was observed 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles) to the WNW/NW (304°) from the flight level center at 18:05:00ZSea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1500 feetMaximum Flight Level Temp: 24°C (75°F) which was observed 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the NW (309°) from the flight level center 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: Thanks. We have a VDM too now from recon. Despite the SFMR, like @wxmx said earlier the FL winds weren’t quite there yet. Wouldn’t take much to get a name though. Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 30th day of the month at 19:09ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5308Mission Purpose: Investigate fourth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 1Observation Number: 08 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 30th day of the month at 18:14:00ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 19.59N 95.39WB. Center Fix Location: 195 statute miles (313 km) to the NW (305°) from Villahermosa, Tabasco, Mexico.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not AvailableD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1007mb (29.74 inHg) - ExtrapolatedE. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NAF. Eye Character: Not AvailableG. Eye Shape: Not AvailableH. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 47kts (54.1mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 1 nautical miles to the W (274°) of center fix at 18:13:30ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 290° at 25kts (From the WNW at 28.8mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles) to the WNW/NW (304°) of center fix at 18:05:00ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 32kts (36.8mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 7 nautical miles to the E (95°) of center fix at 18:16:00ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 180° at 25kts (From the S at 28.8mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 42 nautical miles (48 statute miles) to the ESE/SE (124°) of center fix at 18:31:00ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 372m (1,220ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 336m (1,102ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 21°C (70°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and PressureS. Fix Level: 1,500 feetT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical milesRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 25kts (~ 28.8mph) which was observed 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles) to the WNW/NW (304°) from the flight level center at 18:05:00ZSea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1500 feetMaximum Flight Level Temp: 24°C (75°F) which was observed 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the NW (309°) from the flight level center And now TD3 is officially declared on the NHC page TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032024 2100 UTC SUN JUN 30 2024 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 This is a way more positive development for the central altoplano volcanic region of Mexico as they are in dire need of the beneficial rains this TC will provide. Whether it attains weak TS status or remains a depression only matters for numbers and record-keeping. Folks along the Campeche coastline will hardly blink at 40-50mph winds. They need the rain, however, and this could be a drought buster. Hopefully, not too much at once to avoid flooding issues. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 Another case of "if it had a few more hours left out there". Huge drop in shear in just 3 hours 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 Besides the heavy rain threat, this would set Invest 97L to become Debby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 It was CHRISTened. It's about to landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 1 Author Share Posted July 1 Just now, wxmx said: It was CHRISTened. It's about to landfall. Hopefully some beneficial rain for areas where it’s badly needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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