Invest 96L

[WxWatcher007]

While most of the focus will be on Major Hurricane Beryl the next few days, the highly anomalous environment that triggered Beryl’s development is also in place for newly designated Invest 96L. 

This could very well be another robust tropical cyclone that threatens the Antilles by midweek. Depending on the overall ridging over the Atlantic next week, this one could gain latitude as it tracks through the Caribbean in a greater fashion than Beryl—if it survives the trek.

 

 

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL96):
Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with an area of 
low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo 
Verde Islands.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for 
additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is 
likely to form by the middle part of this week while it moves 
generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central 
tropical Atlantic. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

 

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

Chris or Debby?

[Normandy]

While beryl is getting the attention and rightfully so, this will also stun people with how intense it gets.  Early call is a similar but less intense solution that’s is occurring with beryl, track a bit further north.  Major hurricane strike risk for the Antilles is high again with this one (which is just hilarious that I’m saying this and not trolling). Crazy ass season

[tiger_deF]

Interesting cloud formation, resembles a wall of clouds separating the SAL to the North and the vorticity to the south 

[wxmx]

1 hour ago, tiger_deF said:

Interesting cloud formation, resembles a wall of clouds separating the SAL to the North and the vorticity to the south 

That's probably what it is. The "wall" of clouds are arc clouds formed when dry air entrain into the warm moist storms to the south

[WxWatcher007]

The consensus for this one really came apart in the last day 

[Normandy]

Yep changing my tune in this one.  One thing I notice different than beryl is this is Already further north and closer to SAL.  Not gonna be a beryl repeat.  

[NorthHillsWx]

Back from the dead? 96L showing some signs of life on satellite and models this morning. It is no doubt bringing some terrible weather to the impact zones from Beryl today. They need none of that 

[WxWatcher007]

12 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Back from the dead? 96L showing some signs of life on satellite and models this morning. It is no doubt bringing some terrible weather to the impact zones from Beryl today. They need none of that 

Signs of life is a good descriptor  

If it can stay behind the ribbons of drier air and shear it could very well have a shot later on. As you know, sometimes these seedlings are robust enough structurally that they just need a little runway to take off. I thought it had that in the central Atlantic but it didn’t work out. 

 

[NeffsvilleWx]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Signs of life is a good descriptor  

If it can stay behind the ribbons of drier air and shear it could very well have a shot later on. As you know, sometimes these seedlings are robust enough structurally that they just need a little runway to take off. I thought it had that in the central Atlantic but it didn’t work out. 

 

Where do you get these products?

[WxWatcher007]

11 minutes ago, NeffsvilleWx said:

Where do you get these products?

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic.php
 

From there you can look at a ton of resources in each basin and at the invest/storm level.

[NorthHillsWx]

For what it’s worth, HWRF (which frankly has handled Beryl very well) brings this into Jamaica on almost an identical path as its predecessor. It gets to a cat 1 by that time. Call me skeptical but it does seem to be showing some organization this morning 

[WxWatcher007]

Still disorganized, but this is the best 96L has looked in days. 

[wxmx]

Roll forward 3 months

 

Quote

Models are showing Hurricane Delta hitting the Tampico area, like the other 25 TCs this season

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

For what it’s worth, HWRF (which frankly has handled Beryl very well) brings this into Jamaica on almost an identical path as its predecessor. It gets to a cat 1 by that time. Call me skeptical but it does seem to be showing some organization this morning 

HWRF is better on intensity than track, but some of the GFS ensemble members, Canadian ensembles and the op GFS do develop 96L.  The HAFS A/B parent grids and op Canadian are not on board yet.  Pretty sharp low level wave looking at satellite with good outflow all quadrants but W.  NHC not impressed.

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, wxmx said:

Roll forward 3 months

 

 

Crazy hot spot so far this season 

[WxWatcher007]

 

[GaWx]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Caribbean Sea (AL96):
A fast-moving tropical wave located over the central Caribbean Sea
is producing some disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur while it
moves quickly westward to west-northwestward at 20 to 25 mph during
the next several days. The system is forecast to cross the Yucatan
Peninsula late this weekend and enter the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico by early next week. Regardless of development, gusty winds
and locally heavy rainfall are possible across portions of the
Greater Antilles over the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.


Forecaster Reinhart

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

it’s ded

next

[Jebman]

On 7/3/2024 at 12:15 PM, wxmx said:

Roll forward 3 months

 

 

You guys are gonna be swimming down there if you get all those TC's