WxWatcher007 Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 While most of the focus will be on Major Hurricane Beryl the next few days, the highly anomalous environment that triggered Beryl’s development is also in place for newly designated Invest 96L. This could very well be another robust tropical cyclone that threatens the Antilles by midweek. Depending on the overall ridging over the Atlantic next week, this one could gain latitude as it tracks through the Caribbean in a greater fashion than Beryl—if it survives the trek. 2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL96): Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle part of this week while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 Chris or Debby? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 While beryl is getting the attention and rightfully so, this will also stun people with how intense it gets. Early call is a similar but less intense solution that’s is occurring with beryl, track a bit further north. Major hurricane strike risk for the Antilles is high again with this one (which is just hilarious that I’m saying this and not trolling). Crazy ass season 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 Interesting cloud formation, resembles a wall of clouds separating the SAL to the North and the vorticity to the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 1 hour ago, tiger_deF said: Interesting cloud formation, resembles a wall of clouds separating the SAL to the North and the vorticity to the south That's probably what it is. The "wall" of clouds are arc clouds formed when dry air entrain into the warm moist storms to the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 1 Author Share Posted July 1 The consensus for this one really came apart in the last day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Yep changing my tune in this one. One thing I notice different than beryl is this is Already further north and closer to SAL. Not gonna be a beryl repeat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 Back from the dead? 96L showing some signs of life on satellite and models this morning. It is no doubt bringing some terrible weather to the impact zones from Beryl today. They need none of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 3 Author Share Posted July 3 12 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Back from the dead? 96L showing some signs of life on satellite and models this morning. It is no doubt bringing some terrible weather to the impact zones from Beryl today. They need none of that Signs of life is a good descriptor If it can stay behind the ribbons of drier air and shear it could very well have a shot later on. As you know, sometimes these seedlings are robust enough structurally that they just need a little runway to take off. I thought it had that in the central Atlantic but it didn’t work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: Signs of life is a good descriptor If it can stay behind the ribbons of drier air and shear it could very well have a shot later on. As you know, sometimes these seedlings are robust enough structurally that they just need a little runway to take off. I thought it had that in the central Atlantic but it didn’t work out. Where do you get these products? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 3 Author Share Posted July 3 11 minutes ago, NeffsvilleWx said: Where do you get these products? http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic.php From there you can look at a ton of resources in each basin and at the invest/storm level. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 For what it’s worth, HWRF (which frankly has handled Beryl very well) brings this into Jamaica on almost an identical path as its predecessor. It gets to a cat 1 by that time. Call me skeptical but it does seem to be showing some organization this morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 3 Author Share Posted July 3 Still disorganized, but this is the best 96L has looked in days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 Roll forward 3 months Quote Models are showing Hurricane Delta hitting the Tampico area, like the other 25 TCs this season 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: For what it’s worth, HWRF (which frankly has handled Beryl very well) brings this into Jamaica on almost an identical path as its predecessor. It gets to a cat 1 by that time. Call me skeptical but it does seem to be showing some organization this morning HWRF is better on intensity than track, but some of the GFS ensemble members, Canadian ensembles and the op GFS do develop 96L. The HAFS A/B parent grids and op Canadian are not on board yet. Pretty sharp low level wave looking at satellite with good outflow all quadrants but W. NHC not impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 3 Author Share Posted July 3 1 hour ago, wxmx said: Roll forward 3 months Crazy hot spot so far this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 3 Author Share Posted July 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Central Caribbean Sea (AL96): A fast-moving tropical wave located over the central Caribbean Sea is producing some disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur while it moves quickly westward to west-northwestward at 20 to 25 mph during the next several days. The system is forecast to cross the Yucatan Peninsula late this weekend and enter the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by early next week. Regardless of development, gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are possible across portions of the Greater Antilles over the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent. Forecaster Reinhart 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 it’s ded next 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 On 7/3/2024 at 12:15 PM, wxmx said: Roll forward 3 months You guys are gonna be swimming down there if you get all those TC's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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