Brian5671 Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 5 minutes ago, Allsnow said: And extreme southeast jersey SE NJ always seems to be a hot spot for showers and T-storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: SE NJ always seems to be a hot spot for showers and T-storms. Random thunderstorms effecting that area again this morning. Unbelievable. I can’t even wet the ground and I’m closer to the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 Partly cloudy in Chester; getting dry out this way. Top 2” inches of topsoil are showing cracks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 56 minutes ago, Allsnow said: And extreme southeast jersey The East End of Long Island is currently getting very heavy downpours with 1.50” estimated in the last hour. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 78 / 65. Cut of low spinning a low into SNE with a backing in clouds/ showers. Heaviest amounts to LI. Low - mid 80s , where clearing occurs. Low lifts out before a warm front / boundary approaching from the west Tue - Wed. Warmer but showers and clouds should keep most location in the 80s with storms scattered on Tue (7/30) and more widespread Wed (7/31). Hotter by Thu and into the weekend with next heatwave with storm chances Fri - Sun and potential Debby swinging up offshsore the coast 8/5 - 8/7. Beyond there continued overall warm / hot and humid with storms chances. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 Had Trace of rainfall here so far. Hoping for something better as the week moves forward. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 models are awful-the 12z 3K NAM-has nothing over eastern LI yet it's pouring 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Random thunderstorms effecting that area again this morning. Unbelievable. I can’t even wet the ground and I’m closer to the storm Like you said, we really need rain. I've been having to water a lot lately. Unfortunately it appears that there won't be widespread activity this week. A few pop ups this afternoon, and tomorrow afternoon most of the activity stays well to the west. Our best chance this week looks like late Tuesday night. Wednesday has been advertised as a stormier day, but much like last week I don't think that's gonna work out. I hope we get lucky with some downpours at some point this week, but I'm not very confident right now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 29 Author Share Posted July 29 21 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Like you said, we really need rain. I've been having to water a lot lately. Unfortunately it appears that there won't be widespread activity this week. A few pop ups this afternoon, and tomorrow afternoon most of the activity stays well to the west. Our best chance this week looks like late Tuesday night. Wednesday has been advertised as a stormier day, but much like last week I don't think that's gonna work out. I hope we get lucky with some downpours at some point this week, but I'm not very confident right now. At least we'll have lots of heat and humidity later this week 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: At least we'll have lots of heat and humidity later this week are we even going to get clouds today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: the 12z 3K NAM-has nothing over eastern LI yet it's pouring That’s pretty much to be expected from the NAM since it hasn’t been upgraded since March 2017. Over 3.00” now on Eastern LI. This is where the signal for the heaviest rains have been from most models since its closest to the subtropical low. NAM development was frozen after the March 2017 upgrade, and RAP/HRRR development with the WRF-ARW model will cease after the RAPv5/HRRRv4 upgrade in 2020. However, operational execution of these modeling and associated DA systems will continue until comparable FV3-based systems are able to give similar performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 30 minutes ago, bluewave said: That’s pretty much to be expected from the NAM since it hasn’t been upgraded since March 2017. Over 3.00” now on Eastern LI. This is where the signal for the heaviest rains have been from most models since its closest to the subtropical low. NAM development was frozen after the March 2017 upgrade, and RAP/HRRR development with the WRF-ARW model will cease after the RAPv5/HRRRv4 upgrade in 2020. However, operational execution of these modeling and associated DA systems will continue until comparable FV3-based systems are able to give similar performance. Is there a timeframe for retirement of the NAM? I thought it was suppose to be this year originally but haven’t seen anything since. I recall there was some slide from a NOAA presentation on model implementation & upgrades that showed it a few years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 4 hours ago, uofmiami said: Is there a timeframe for retirement of the NAM? I thought it was suppose to be this year originally but haven’t seen anything since. I recall there was some slide from a NOAA presentation on model implementation & upgrades that showed it a few years ago. Maybe as soon as next spring? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 Have a nice thunderstorm with some intense c2g lightning just pop over me. Decent rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 An absolute monsoon outside. Much welcomed rains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 Storm is just getting bigger sitting over me. Stopped for maybe 5 seconds before just pouring even harder. Streets are like rapids. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 Very much welcomed! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 Quick 0.40 from the current downpours, 0.72 on the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 Just had a quick downpour here and rumbles of thunder. Looks like some kind of boundary fired up storms just away from the north shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 Syosset area getting pounded. There should probably be a flood advisory there. Edit-just saw it lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 19 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Syosset area getting pounded. There should probably be a flood advisory there. Edit-just saw it lol. Yes, my house is getting slammed at the moment. Almost 1.50" of rain in little time, currently 1.43" and going up. Gusted to 43mph as well. Meanwhile my mom in Muttontown, 3 miles W, only .08 so far. Up to 1.72" now at 2:35pm! Wife says Split Rock Road is a river with lots of flooding. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 3 hours ago, winterwx21 said: Like you said, we really need rain. I've been having to water a lot lately. Unfortunately it appears that there won't be widespread activity this week. A few pop ups this afternoon, and tomorrow afternoon most of the activity stays well to the west. Our best chance this week looks like late Tuesday night. Wednesday has been advertised as a stormier day, but much like last week I don't think that's gonna work out. I hope we get lucky with some downpours at some point this week, but I'm not very confident right now. Completely missed the rain again here today. Didn’t even get cloudy for very long 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 Experienced T&L for the first time in like 2 months here in Stony Brook. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 Torrential rain and thunder in Melville. Back home up to 0.90 for the day, just to my north in east Northport radar estimates over 4 inches… flash flood warning now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 Drought busted on LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Drought busted on LI Yea more than 4.5” for the month now, definitely has been a wetter July than years past. We will end up AN rainfall for the month on the north shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 At 1.79" from the deluge. Currently 1.82" with next cell incoming. 6.18" for the month to date. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 30 minutes ago, psv88 said: Yea more than 4.5” for the month now, definitely has been a wetter July than years past. We will end up AN rainfall for the month on the north shore You have me beat by more than an inch. I passed the 3” mark this morning. 0.40” so far today. Nearly all of it coming in the early morning hours. Afternoon stuff has been a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 Current temp 91/DP 69/RH 50% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 0.75" Still pretty dry in the ISP area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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