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10 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Any rain over the summer unless it’s a large scale synoptic system is widely scattered. I happen to be lucky this summer but others develop flash droughts. 

I don't know..this event was well advertised to bring 1-2 inches of rain...not just a late day t storm 

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Near normal readings will prevail through the week. Showers and thundershowers are likely tonight through Thursday. Warmer air will begin to arrive to close the weekend. There is some potential that the month could end on a hot note.

The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. Some of the extended range guidance suggests that August could be warmer to much warmer than normal.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.2°C for the week centered around July 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.25°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall.

The SOI was +2.15 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.497 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 95% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.9° (2.4° above normal). That would rank 2024 as the 10th hottest July on record.

 

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Records:

Highs:

EWR: 102  (2022)
NYC: 97 (2010)
LGA: 98 (2022)
JFK: 97 (2010)


Lows:

EWR:  55 (1947)
NYC: 56 (1893)
LGA: 59 (1992)
JFK: 58 (1997)

Historical:

 

1886 - Rain fell at Lawrence, KS, for the first time in four weeks. Rain fell over much of the state of Kansas that day relieving a severe drought which began in May. The very dry weather ruined crops in Kansas. (David Ludlum)

1936 - A record all time Kansas state high temperature set just 6 days earlier was tied in the town of Alton, located in Osborne County. (US National Weather Service Wichita)

1942 - The temperature at Las Vegas, NV, hit 117 degrees to set an all-time record for that location. The record was tied on July 19, 2005.

1947 - One of the most powerful strokes of lightning ever measured yielded 345,000 amperes of electricity in Pittsburgh, PA. (The Weather Channel)

1952 - The temperature at Louisville, GA, soared to 112 degrees to establish a state record. (The Weather Channel)

1980 - Claudette, a weak tropical storm, deluged southeastern Texas with torrential rains. The Houston suburb of Alvin received 43 inches, a 24 hour record for the U.S. (David Ludlum)

1987 - Twenty-one cities in the eastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. The high of 91 degrees at Beckley, WV, was their hottest reading in 25 years of records, and marked their third straight day of record 90 degree heat. Bakersfield, CA, dipped to 60 degrees, marking their eighth straight morning of record cool weather. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced large hail and damaging winds in Oklahoma, and over Nebraska and Wisconsin. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 75 mph at Brainerd, NE. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Afternoon thunderstorms produced some flash flooding in New Mexico. Albuquerque, NM, was deluged with an inch and a half of rain in forty minutes. Evening thunderstorms soaked Whie Pine, PA, with two inches of rain in one hour. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

2008: A tornado fluctuated between the category EF1 and the more destructive EF2 strikes Northwood and Pittsfield, as well as nine other towns in New Hampshire. It first touches down in Deerfield, then travels through Northwood, Epsom, Pittsfield, Barnstead, and Alton. From there, it rages through New Durham, Wolfeboro, Freedom, Ossipee, and Effingham. The storm destroys several homes, damaged dozens of others and kills at least one person.

 

 

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3 hours ago, doncat said:

Only 0.23" for what had looked like a wet week. Have done ok here though for the month as a whole with 4.45".

The high pressure to the north overperformed. It’s one of the few times that a strong Southeast ridge influence gets muted around here. The good news is that there will finally be a dry weekend coming up. A more active convection pattern should return as that big Canadian high shifts out to Bermuda in about a week to 10 days.

IMG_0605.thumb.png.595284bed7003d8bb873271dc7ac5aa1.png
IMG_0606.thumb.png.6a9911c18a83229bc83ad22e62106aab.png

IMG_0607.thumb.png.daf47f2598469522a31ac1262e5d78c2.png

 

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26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The high pressure to the north overperformed. It’s one of the few times that a strong Southeast ridge influence gets muted around here. The good news is that there will finally be a dry weekend coming up. A more active convection pattern should return as that big Canadian high shifts out to Bermuda in about a week to 10 days.

IMG_0605.thumb.png.595284bed7003d8bb873271dc7ac5aa1.png
IMG_0606.thumb.png.6a9911c18a83229bc83ad22e62106aab.png

IMG_0607.thumb.png.daf47f2598469522a31ac1262e5d78c2.png

 

This has not been a hot summer though.

The West has had the hot summer.

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Humidity sucks though and now most of you should understand why I said we need to suck out about 20% of the water on this planet and move it to Mars or some other space colony.

The amount of water vapor in our atmosphere is literally sickening and we dont need 70% of our planet covered in water, 50% is just fine thank you very much.

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27 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

This has not been a hot summer though.

The West has had the hot summer.

The sea breeze has kept the maxes down a JFK.The high of 91° so far there is the 4th lowest on record. But the high dew points have kept the minimums warmer at 3rd warmest. JFK recently set the longest streak for under 100° days at 4024. And it’s very possible this streak will extend at least into next year. Much stronger sea breeze influence since 2014. 

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 2009-07-24 85 0
- 1948-07-24 85 46
2 1979-07-24 89 0
- 1967-07-24 89 0
- 1951-07-24 89 0
3 2023-07-24 90 0
- 2007-07-24 90 0
- 1960-07-24 90 0
4 2024-07-24 91 0
- 2021-07-24 91 0
- 2014-07-24 91 0
- 2004-07-24 91 0
- 1996-07-24 91 0
- 1985-07-24 91 0
- 1976-07-24 91 0
- 1975-07-24 91 0
- 1973-07-24 91 0


 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 1948-07-24 69.3 46
2 2010-07-24 69.0 0
3 2024-07-24 68.3 0
4 2013-07-24 68.0 0
5 1984-07-24 67.8 0
6 1952-07-24 67.4 0
7 1994-07-24 67.3 0
- 1981-07-24 67.3 0
8 2011-07-24 67.2 0
- 2008-07-24 67.2 0
9 2015-07-24 67.1 0
10 1983-07-24 67.0 0


 

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature < 100 
for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Period of record: 1948-07-17 to 2024-07-24
1 4024 2013-07-19 through 2024-07-24
2 4016 1999-07-06 through 2010-07-03
3 4009 1972-07-24 through 1983-07-15
4 3610 1983-08-21 through 1993-07-08
5 2210 1966-07-05 through 1972-07-22
6 2185 1993-07-11 through 1999-07-04
7 963 1960-05-02 through 1962-12-20
8 857 1955-03-18 through 1957-07-21
9 817 1951-11-07 through 1954-01-31
10 736 1948-08-28 through 1950-09-02

 

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11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The sea breeze has kept the maxes down a JFK.The high of 91° so far there is the 4th lowest on record. But the high dew points have kept the minimums warmer at 3rd warmest. JFK recently set the longest streak for under 100° days at 4024. And it’s very possible this streak will extend at least into next year. Much stronger sea breeze influence since 2014. 

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 2009-07-24 85 0
- 1948-07-24 85 46
2 1979-07-24 89 0
- 1967-07-24 89 0
- 1951-07-24 89 0
3 2023-07-24 90 0
- 2007-07-24 90 0
- 1960-07-24 90 0
4 2024-07-24 91 0
- 2021-07-24 91 0
- 2014-07-24 91 0
- 2004-07-24 91 0
- 1996-07-24 91 0
- 1985-07-24 91 0
- 1976-07-24 91 0
- 1975-07-24 91 0
- 1973-07-24 91 0


 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 1948-07-24 69.3 46
2 2010-07-24 69.0 0
3 2024-07-24 68.3 0
4 2013-07-24 68.0 0
5 1984-07-24 67.8 0
6 1952-07-24 67.4 0
7 1994-07-24 67.3 0
- 1981-07-24 67.3 0
8 2011-07-24 67.2 0
- 2008-07-24 67.2 0
9 2015-07-24 67.1 0
10 1983-07-24 67.0 0


 

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature < 100 
for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Period of record: 1948-07-17 to 2024-07-24
1 4024 2013-07-19 through 2024-07-24
2 4016 1999-07-06 through 2010-07-03
3 4009 1972-07-24 through 1983-07-15
4 3610 1983-08-21 through 1993-07-08
5 2210 1966-07-05 through 1972-07-22
6 2185 1993-07-11 through 1999-07-04
7 963 1960-05-02 through 1962-12-20
8 857 1955-03-18 through 1957-07-21
9 817 1951-11-07 through 1954-01-31
10 736 1948-08-28 through 1950-09-02

 

I think NYC and PHL have also not hit 100 in many years.

NYC since 2013 and PHL since 2012?

All the record heat has been out west.

No 95s here either and NYC has only had one.

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38 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Humidity sucks though and now most of you should understand why I said we need to suck out about 20% of the water on this planet and move it to Mars or some other space colony.

The amount of water vapor in our atmosphere is literally sickening and we dont need 70% of our planet covered in water, 50% is just fine thank you very much.

Good morning Liberty, I pray you are well. Not sure if the result would end up in the ‘be careful what you wish’ for category. As always ……

 

IMG_0479.png

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5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wow excellent graffic rclab, what software  did you use to generate it?

Actually Liberty, considering my skill set compared to yours and the majority of posters on the forum, it was an accomplishment for me to properly use google search. Thank you though for the kind words. As always …..

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77  / 70 and cloudy.  Continued one more day stuck in the muck - scattered showers.  Ridge building north of us, dry out Fri (7/26).  Weekend looks very nice near normal, warm spots near / low 90s  Sun (7/28).   Some Southerly / onshore component next week sees dewpoints rise as we sit between the influence of the ridge to the north and expanding Atlantic ridge later in the week.  Pieces of the heat expanding east focus north and inland areas.  Stronger heat later next week and beyond.  Tropics could come active as well.  The pattern would also trigger daily storms scattered mainly.

 

GOES16-NE-GEOCOLOR-600x600.gif 

 

 

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

This has not been a hot summer though.

The West has had the hot summer.

 

Core of the heat (top 5)  has been west of the city in parts of NJ / PHL, and record heat has been near the Balt/DC area.  Perhaps another push of stronger heat 7/31 - early next month. 

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

I think NYC and PHL have also not hit 100 in many years.

NYC since 2013 and PHL since 2012?

All the record heat has been out west.

No 95s here either and NYC has only had one.

The sea breeze has been boosting the mins due to higher dew points  and muting the maxes in terms of 90° days near the coast. Even Newark has fallen behind years in the lead for 90° days by July 24th. Harrison a few miles away from the bay has gotten close to the top. JFK is only in 15th place for 90° days by July 24th at 2 days. A year like 2010 with all the westerly flow was in 1st place with 20 days already. Newark is in 5th place and Harrison 2nd place. Only Central NJ is keeping pace with 2010 in 1st place.


Max # 90 days by July 24th 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 2010-07-24 20 0
2 1983-07-24 14 0
3 1991-07-24 13 0
4 2012-07-24 12 0
- 2002-07-24 12 0
6 1952-07-24 11 0
7 2022-07-24 10 0
- 2011-07-24 10 0
- 1966-07-24 10 0
- 1962-07-24 10 0
- 1955-07-24 10 2
- 1949-07-24 10 0
8 2013-07-24 9 0
- 1999-07-24 9 0
- 1993-07-24 9 0
- 1988-07-24 9 0
- 1987-07-24 9 0
- 1974-07-24 9 0
9 2017-07-24 8 0
- 2003-07-24 8 0
- 1997-07-24 8 0
- 1986-07-24 8 0
- 1984-07-24 8 0
- 1971-07-24 8 0
- 1963-07-24 8 0
10 2020-07-24 7 0
- 2016-07-24 7 0
- 2008-07-24 7 0
- 1994-07-24 7 0
- 1981-07-24 7 0
- 1977-07-24 7 0
- 1969-07-24 7 0
- 1968-07-24 7 0
- 1964-07-24 7 0
11 2019-07-24 6 0
- 2005-07-24 6 0
- 1992-07-24 6 0
- 1972-07-24 6 0
- 1957-07-24 6 0
12 2021-07-24 5 0
- 1995-07-24 5 0
- 1990-07-24 5 0
- 1978-07-24 5 0
- 1961-07-24 5 0
- 1956-07-24 5 0
- 1954-07-24 5 1
- 1953-07-24 5 0
13 2006-07-24 4 0
- 2000-07-24 4 0
- 1970-07-24 4 0
- 1965-07-24 4 0
- 1959-07-24 4 2
14 2018-07-24 3 0
- 2001-07-24 3 0
- 1998-07-24 3 0
- 1996-07-24 3 0
- 1989-07-24 3 0
- 1982-07-24 3 0
- 1980-07-24 3 0
- 1976-07-24 3 0
- 1973-07-24 3 0
15 2024-07-24 2 0
- 2015-07-24 2 0
- 2007-07-24 2 0
- 1975-07-24 2 0
- 1958-07-24 2 1


Newark in 5th place

 

 Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 2010-07-24 32 0
2 1993-07-24 28 0
- 1987-07-24 28 0
3 2022-07-24 27 0
- 1994-07-24 27 0
- 1991-07-24 27 0
4 2021-07-24 25 0
5 2024-07-24 23 0
- 2011-07-24 23 0
- 2002-07-24 23 0


 

Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 2010-07-24 31 17
2 2024-07-24 28 0
3 2002-07-24 26 5
4 2021-07-24 24 0
- 2012-07-24 24 21
- 2011-07-24 24 14
5 2018-07-24 23 0


 

Time Series Summary for HIGHTSTOWN 2 W, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 2024-07-24 27 8
- 2010-07-24 27 0
3 2021-07-24 25 0
4 2022-07-24 23 0
- 1988-07-24 23 0
- 1957-07-24 23 0
- 1894-07-24 23 11
5 2020-07-24 22 0
- 2012-07-24 22 1
- 1952-07-24 22 0

 

 

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30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The sea breeze has been boosting the mins due to higher dew points  and muting the maxes in terms of 90° days near the coast. Even Newark has fallen behind years in the lead for 90° days by July 24th. Harrison a few miles away from the bay has gotten close to the top. JFK is only in 15th place for 90° days by July 24th at 2 days. A year like 2010 with all the westerly flow was in 1st place with 20 days already. Newark is in 5th place and Harrison 2nd place. Only Central NJ is keeping pace with 2010 in 1st place.


Max # 90 days by July 24th 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 2010-07-24 20 0
2 1983-07-24 14 0
3 1991-07-24 13 0
4 2012-07-24 12 0
- 2002-07-24 12 0
6 1952-07-24 11 0
7 2022-07-24 10 0
- 2011-07-24 10 0
- 1966-07-24 10 0
- 1962-07-24 10 0
- 1955-07-24 10 2
- 1949-07-24 10 0
8 2013-07-24 9 0
- 1999-07-24 9 0
- 1993-07-24 9 0
- 1988-07-24 9 0
- 1987-07-24 9 0
- 1974-07-24 9 0
9 2017-07-24 8 0
- 2003-07-24 8 0
- 1997-07-24 8 0
- 1986-07-24 8 0
- 1984-07-24 8 0
- 1971-07-24 8 0
- 1963-07-24 8 0
10 2020-07-24 7 0
- 2016-07-24 7 0
- 2008-07-24 7 0
- 1994-07-24 7 0
- 1981-07-24 7 0
- 1977-07-24 7 0
- 1969-07-24 7 0
- 1968-07-24 7 0
- 1964-07-24 7 0
11 2019-07-24 6 0
- 2005-07-24 6 0
- 1992-07-24 6 0
- 1972-07-24 6 0
- 1957-07-24 6 0
12 2021-07-24 5 0
- 1995-07-24 5 0
- 1990-07-24 5 0
- 1978-07-24 5 0
- 1961-07-24 5 0
- 1956-07-24 5 0
- 1954-07-24 5 1
- 1953-07-24 5 0
13 2006-07-24 4 0
- 2000-07-24 4 0
- 1970-07-24 4 0
- 1965-07-24 4 0
- 1959-07-24 4 2
14 2018-07-24 3 0
- 2001-07-24 3 0
- 1998-07-24 3 0
- 1996-07-24 3 0
- 1989-07-24 3 0
- 1982-07-24 3 0
- 1980-07-24 3 0
- 1976-07-24 3 0
- 1973-07-24 3 0
15 2024-07-24 2 0
- 2015-07-24 2 0
- 2007-07-24 2 0
- 1975-07-24 2 0
- 1958-07-24 2 1


Newark in 5th place

 

 

 Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 2010-07-24 32 0
2 1993-07-24 28 0
- 1987-07-24 28 0
3 2022-07-24 27 0
- 1994-07-24 27 0
- 1991-07-24 27 0
4 2021-07-24 25 0
5 2024-07-24 23 0
- 2011-07-24 23 0
- 2002-07-24 23 0


 

Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 2010-07-24 31 17
2 2024-07-24 28 0
3 2002-07-24 26 5
4 2021-07-24 24 0
- 2012-07-24 24 21
- 2011-07-24 24 14
5 2018-07-24 23 0


 

Time Series Summary for HIGHTSTOWN 2 W, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 2024-07-24 27 8
- 2010-07-24 27 0
3 2021-07-24 25 0
4 2022-07-24 23 0
- 1988-07-24 23 0
- 1957-07-24 23 0
- 1894-07-24 23 11
5 2020-07-24 22 0
- 2012-07-24 22 1
- 1952-07-24 22 0

 

 

Chris do you think being in a semiurban community near the south shore mutes the effect of the sea breeze?

I have counted 5 days in the 90s this year so far, 2 in June and 3 in July.... how does JFK have none in July? I'm 2.5 miles from the ocean.

 

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