Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

Didn't that kind of happen the last time we were supposed to have a wet week

Yep. Like we've talked about, big hyped heavy rain forecasts tend to bust and then we get hit when there's only a slight chance. That's the way it has worked out here this summer. 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, FPizz said:

Didn't that kind of happen the last time we were supposed to have a wet week

Last time heaviest rains went north, as ridge was stronger, this time front/boundary best rain is south

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

Yep. Like we've talked about, big hyped heavy rain forecasts tend to bust and then we get hit when there's only a slight chance. That's the way it has worked out here this summer. 

Kind of like Wind advisories in the winter-most seem to bust then you get a big wind event out of nowhere

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Near normal readings will prevail through the week. Showers and thundershowers are likely tonight through Thursday. Warmer air will begin to arrive to close the weekend. There is some potential that the month could end on a hot note.

The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. Some of the extended range guidance suggests that August could be warmer to much warmer than normal.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.2°C for the week centered around July 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.25°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall.

The SOI was +4.00 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.170 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 95% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 80.0° (2.5° above normal). That would tie 2024 with 1908 and 2020 as the 8th hottest July on record.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

Our central AC crapped out a few days ago :( These dews are killing me! Of course the town is a few days out for approving the electrical permit :thumbsdown:

I genuinely feel for you. Nothing worse than trying to sleep in pea soup (no matter the temperature, actually).  I hope that you get an AC back up and running soon!

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I see most of tonight's models have the batch of rain for tomorrow morning to midday mostly missing to the south and east, but it's gonna be close. With Thursday looking mostly dry now, I'm really hoping we see something decent tomorrow morning. It would be pretty bad to end up getting nothing this week after all the heavy rain forecasts, especially considering it will be dry for several days starting on Friday. The vegetable gardens really could use a drink. Hopefully tomorrow morning, but it looks very iffy right now. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites


Records:

Highs:

EWR: 102 (2002)
NYC: 97 (2010)
LGA: 98 (2022)
JFK: 97 (2010)


Lows:

EWR: 55 (1947)
NYC: 56 (1893)
LGA: 58: (1992)
JFK: 58 (1997)

Historical:

 

1788 - A weather diary kept by George Washington recorded that the center of a hurricane passed directly over his Mount Vernon home. The hurricane crossed eastern North Carolina and Virginia before moving into the Central Appalachians. Norfolk, VA, reported houses destroyed, trees uprooted, and crops leveled to the ground. (David Ludlum)

1788: Called the George Washington's Hurricane, this storm originated near Bermuda on the 19th before making landfall in Virginia. It passed directly over the Lower Chesapeake Bay and Mount Vernon, the home of George Washington. This track is very similar to the path of the Chesapeake-Potomac hurricane of 1933. At Norfolk, winds increased at 5 p.m. on the 23rd with the wind originating from the northeast. At 12:30 a.m., the wind suddenly shifted to the south and "blew a perfect hurricane, tearing down chimneys, fences"...some corn was also leveled. Also, large trees were uprooted, and houses were moved from their foundations.

Port Royal and Hobb's Hole experienced a violent northeast gale which drove several vessels ashore. In Fredricksburg, vast quantities of corn, tobacco, and fruit were destroyed. Houses and trees fell in significant numbers across Northumberland, Lancaster, Richmond, and Westmoreland counties. Crops were destroyed, and many livestock perished in Lower Mathews County. Many plantations saw their houses leveled. Homes were flooded with water six feet deep, and several inhabitants drowned.

Historical figures of the time logged the storm's antics. George Washington noted the sinking of the small ship Federalist and uprooted trees. Colonel James Madison, the father of the future president, experienced the passing of great winds and rains near Orange. In Alexandria, damage to wheat, tobacco, and corn was "beyond description."  The information above is from the Weather Prediction Center and noted American historian David Ludlum.

1898 - A two hour thunderstorm deluged Atlanta, GA, with 4.32 inches of rain. More than a foot of water flooded Union Depot. Many street car motors burned out while trying to run through flooded streets. It grew so dark before the afternoon storm that gas lights were needed. (The Weather Channel)

1923 - Sheridan, WY, was drenched with 4.41 inches of rain, an all-time 24 hour record for that location. Associated flooding washed out 20 miles of railroad track. (22nd-23rd) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Thunderstorms produced a record ten inches of rain in six and a half hours at Minneapolis, MN, including 5.26 inches in two hours. Flash flooding claimed two lives and caused 21.3 million dollars damage. Streets in Minneapolis became rushing rivers, parking lots became lakes, and storm sewers spouted like geysers. A tornado hit Maple Grove, MN, causing five million dollars damage. Baseball size hail was reported at Olivia, MN. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in Lower Michigan and northern Ohio, over eastern sections of the Dakotas, and over the Central High Plains Region. Showers and thunderstorms soaked Wilmington, NC, with another two inches of rain, following six and a half inches the previous day. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Morning thunderstorms in the central U.S. drenched central Oklahoma with up to six inches of rain. Afternoon thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 85 mph at Fort Smith, AR. Evening thunderstorms over Florida spawned a tornado which touched down three times in south Fort Myers causing nearly three quarters of a million dollars damage. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2011: Chicago set an all-time daily record rainfall when 6.86 inches fell during the early morning hours of Saturday, July 23, 2011, at O'Hare airport. The previous daily record was 6.64 inches set on September 13, 2008.

 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

Just .10 all week..what happened to the rain and why is 5-7 day modelling this bad

Any rain over the summer unless it’s a large scale synoptic system is widely scattered. I happen to be lucky this summer but others develop flash droughts. 

  • Confused 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

 

78 / 72 cloudy with some shower around.  Another 36 hours caught up near the boundary with more scattered storms and showers.  Clears up and dries out Fri (7/26) and through the weekend.  Warmer by Sun  - upper 80s - low 90s.  Cut off low meandering offshore next week Mon - Wed.   Ridge building north and heat expanding east - onshore component keep the strongest heat north /west (inland initially) overall hotter by the 31st and beyond.  Tropical activity may kick in later next week.

 

 GOES16-NE-GEOCOLOR-600x600.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

I wish it would just rain and clear up. This constant cloudy weather is awful

So much for the rain this week. Looks as if we're down to just the very slight chance of a spotty storm for later today or tonight. Good chance we're gonna get through this whole hyped week with almost nothing. Awful. Lots of watering will be needed in the coming days. Our next chance doesn't come until next Tuesday or Wednesday.

But like you said, it's nice that we'll have some beautiful weather to enjoy. Dew points down to the mid 50s Friday will feel great. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...