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5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I would think onshore flow would make the waters warmer-usually offshore flow is what brings in the upwelling.

It’s been so strong that the waters get very choppy and enhance upwelling. Multiple times we’ve had Ambrose Jet events with gusts to 45. 

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18 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It’s been so strong that the waters get very choppy and enhance upwelling. Multiple times we’ve had Ambrose Jet events with gusts to 45. 

Yeah, the Ambrose Jet has been so strong that JFK has had the 3rd lowest number of 90° days on record by July 15th. Only 2 days so far reaching 90°. With numerous days gusting over 30 and even 40 mph.

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 2009-07-15 0 0
- 1985-07-15 0 0
- 1982-07-15 0 0
- 1972-07-15 0 0
- 1967-07-15 0 0
- 1951-07-15 0 2
2 2023-07-15 1 0
- 2015-07-15 1 0
- 2014-07-15 1 0
- 2006-07-15 1 0
- 2004-07-15 1 0
- 1998-07-15 1 0
- 1980-07-15 1 0
- 1979-07-15 1 0
- 1960-07-15 1 1
3 2024-07-15 2 0
- 2007-07-15 2 0
- 1990-07-15 2 0
- 1989-07-15 2 0
- 1976-07-15 2 0
- 1975-07-15 2 0
- 1970-07-15 2 0
- 1958-07-15 2 1
- 1953-07-15 2 0
- 1950-07-15 2 0

 

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1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

The HRRR IMO is underdone somewhat while the 3km NAM is likely overdone.  The instability sort of peaks more in NJ.  We may see little to nothing on that line til the disturbance reaches far NE PA and W NJ but development would probably fire up much faster than the HRRR indicates

It's usually a safe bet that the 3km NAM is overdone, lol. That thing is INSANE. 

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1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Absolutely roasting out here with these west winds. Up to 94. 

It will be a race to see how warm you can get before the Ambrose Jet kicks in later.

 

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
1115 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

ANZ355-170415-
/O.NEW.KOKX.SC.Y.0060.240716T2000Z-240717T0600Z/
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
1115 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 3 to
  5 ft expected.

* WHERE...Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm.

* WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

 

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6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It will be a race to see how warm you can get before the Ambrose Jet kicks in later.

 

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
1115 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

ANZ355-170415-
/O.NEW.KOKX.SC.Y.0060.240716T2000Z-240717T0600Z/
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
1115 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 3 to
  5 ft expected.

* WHERE...Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm.

* WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

 

Topped out at 95, now down to 92, as wind shifted to the south, so I think that’s all we get. 
 

FWIW uptons point and click has me at 95 today, so it’s spot on. 

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