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5 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

pretty rare to see storms fall apart like that well before the close of daytime heating 

These storms were the product of orographic lift over the hills of eastern PA and the remnants of a weak frontal boundary.  Once they moved closer to the coast they dissipated.  The lack of any significant seabreeze frontal boundaries probably hastened the process.

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13 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

These storms were the product of orographic lift over the hills of eastern PA and the remnants of a weak frontal boundary.  Once they moved closer to the coast they dissipated.  The lack of any significant seabreeze frontal boundaries probably hastened the process.

we had the breeze yesterday idk what happened

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Very warm and humid weather will prevail through tomorrow. Some showers or thundershowers are possible. The latter part of the week could turn slightly cooler.

In parts of California, Nevada, and Arizona, a severe long-duration and dangerous heatwave continues. Daggett reached 118°, tying its all-time mark for the third consecutive day. Las Vegas topped out at 119°, its second highest figure on record. Needles reached 122°.

Severe heat appears unlikely in the East during at least the first half of July.

The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.3°C for the week centered around July 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall.

The SOI was +4.68 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.084 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 77% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.8° (2.3° above normal).

 

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14 hours ago, bluewave said:

While SMQs records only began in 1999, they are already on track for one of their highest number of 75° and higher dew point days with 11 days so far. Probably on track for 20 or more days which would make the top 3. 2018 was the first place record holder 

Total annual 75° dew point days at SMQ since 1999

#1…..33 days….2018

#2….22 days…..2021

#3….20 days….2013

#4…..15 days....2003

#5…..13 days….2020

#6….12 days…..2023….2017….2010

#7…..11 days…..2024….2006

 

2018 was a year that numerous college dorms had to do mold remediation and relocation of the students due to the record high dew points.

https://www.northjersey.com/story/news/passaic/wayne/2018/10/15/mold-mushrooms-inside-william-paterson-university-dorms/1646278002/

Hillsborough/Duke Mesonet reported a max temp of 98 yesterday.  

 

Attach is a picture of the SMQ ASOS.   

PXL_20240710_110446191.jpg

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13 minutes ago, EWR757 said:

Hillsborough/Duke Mesonet reported a max temp of 98 yesterday.  

 

Attach is a picture of the SMQ ASOS.   

PXL_20240710_110446191.jpg

While SMQ is only 9 days into the month as of the update yesterday, the average afternoon heat index is 95.4°. This would be the highest on record for July should it continue for the rest of the month. This is due to the record high dew points so far this month.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=76&network=NJ_ASOS&station=SMQ&season=jul&varname=feel&agg=max&year=1893&w=bar&hours=0-23&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png
 

IMG_0415.thumb.png.5c66f3ca1c433e9915457d3342966bb0.png
 

IMG_0416.thumb.png.527ff4ab6fe154f302123e79cd227118.png

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81 / 74 partly cloudy.   Low - mid 90s again with high humidity and the chance for some pm / evening storms.  A replay tomorrow with more storms and clouds in the afternoon.  Fri (7/12) and Sat (7/13) more storms and rain with some drenching down pours.  Sunday warm back up to the 90s (pending on clouds) and any lingering storms.  Mon (7/15) - Wed (7/17) chance for some strong 95+ degree heat ahead of the front which should bring a 2-3 day break in the heat / humidity between the 18th and the 20th. 

Beyond there overall warm - hot and humid.

 

7/10 - 7/11 : Hot humid - more scattered storms
7/12 - 7/13 : widespread storms , rain, 
7/14 - 7/17 : hot , humid peak heat Mon - wed mid - upper 90s
7/18  - 7/20 : 2-3 day break in heat and humidity
7/21 - beyond : overall warm - hot / humid.

 

GOES16-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif

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Records: 7/9

 

Highs:

EWR: 104 (1993)
NYC: 106 (1936)
LGA: 98 (1993)
JFK: 101 (1993)



Lows:

EWR: 56 (1963)
NYC: 54 (1963)
LGA: 57 (1963)
JFK: 55 (1963)

Historical:

 

1860 - A hot blast of air in the middle of a sweltering summer pushed the mercury up to 115 degrees at Fort Scott and Lawrence, KS. (David Ludlum)

1882 - Ice formed on the streets of Cheyenne, WY, during a rare summer freeze. (David Ludlum)

1936 - The temperature hit an all-time record high of 106 degrees at the Central Park Observatory in New York City, a record which lasted until LaGuardia Airport hit 107 degrees on July 3rd in 1966. (The Weather Channel)

1968 - Columbus, MS received 15.68 inches of rain in 24 hours to establish a record for the state. (The Weather Channel)

 

1979: Hurricane Bob was born in the Gulf of Mexico, becoming the first Atlantic Hurricane to be given a male name.

1987 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in Michigan. A tornado near Munising, MI, destroyed part of a commercial dog kennel, and one of the missing dogs was later found unharmed in a tree top half a mile away. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Twenty-three cities in the eastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Alpena, MI, and Buffalo, NY, suffered through their sixth straight day of record heat. The percentage of total area in the country in the grips of severe to extreme drought reached 43 percent, the fourth highest total of record. The record of 61 percent occurred during the summer of 1934. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Morning thunderstorms produced very heavy rain in southern Lower Michigan and northern Indiana. Up to 5.6 inches of rain was reported in Berrien County, MI. Sioux Falls SD reported a record high of 108 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

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1 hour ago, EWR757 said:

Hillsborough/Duke Mesonet reported a max temp of 98 yesterday.  

 

Attach is a picture of the SMQ ASOS.   

PXL_20240710_110446191.jpg

Ever notice Duke and Somerville on sunny days are always higher than other stations close by?  If you have the ambient app and see all the stations, on sunny days Duke and Somerville are always 2-3 degrees higher than 90% of the ambient stations nearby.  I look almost everyday since I live kind of between both main stations.  Years ago this happened with the Rutgers station when I lived in Piscataway and would check my temp to theirs since it was close by and I brought it up with mgerb, and I believe there turned out to be an issue with the stations calibration.   

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10 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Ever notice Duke and Somerville on sunny days are always higher than other stations close by?  If you have the ambient app and see all the stations, on sunny days Duke and Somerville are always 2-3 degrees higher than 90% of the ambient stations nearby.  I look almost everyday since I live kind of between both main stations.  Years ago this happened with the Rutgers station when I lived in Piscataway and would check my temp to theirs since it was close by and I brought it up with mgerb, and I believe there turned out to be an issue with the stations calibration.   

I wonder if all stations tied into on line accessible reporting have thermometers that can be calibrated?  Are there any "remote" sensors designed for households that come with thermometers that can be calibrated?

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The global guidance agrees that somebody in the OKX and PHI forecast zones will jackpot higher than 2.50” into Saturday. It will be interesting to see what type of totals the CAMS like the SPC HREF start printing out in a few days. All the ingredients are there for torrential downpours where the best training sets up. 
 

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IMG_0419.thumb.png.1c8978d4fb8da48afa3191de3d1a4c24.png

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19 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

I wonder if all stations tied into on line accessible reporting have thermometers that can be calibrated?  Are there any "remote" sensors designed for households that come with thermometers that can be calibrated?

Davis VP2 you can calibrate the temp according to their site, though they claim no need to calibrate it from factory.

https://support.davisinstruments.com/article/wdiedcv2gf-can-i-calibrate-temperature-and-humidity

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56 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Models have gotten wetter for the next few days into Saturday

rgem_apcpn_neus_84.png

It still looks likely though that we're gonna have to wait until Friday for rain. Most models still have tonight's line of storms in PA falling apart before getting to our area during the overnight, and slightly drier air moves in tomorrow. Dew points will probably drop to the mid-high 60s tomorrow. Hopefully Friday into Saturday will deliver. It does look promising for heavy rain in spots. 

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36 minutes ago, MANDA said:

So close and yet so far.  Just missed a nice shower to my south last evening.  Still optimistic for some decent totals before the end of the week.

Screenshot 2024-07-10 at 10.37.31 AM.jpg

Yup, missed my area by a few miles to the north of me.  I just hope the rains are done by early am Sat, have 75 people coming for my son's grad party.  

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